Trump Surrenders! Iran Wins, and Israel Loses Everything

This is the CJ Berleman Show.

Hello, it's your friend CJ.And in this episode, we look at how Iran has effectively driven the United States out of the Middle East and soon with it, the state of Israel.But first, please remember to like and subscribe to our show.And don't forget to turn your notifications on so you never miss a single episode.Now let's get into it.Israel's security architecture rests on one foundational assumption.

That the United States will always be heavily entrenched in the Middle East.Its presence allowing Israel to deter its adversaries by hiding behind America's military bases and aircraft carrier strike groups parked in and around the Arab Gulf.That was the deal.That deal was a security arrangement.But today that arrangement is collapsing.And it's collapsing hard and fast because Iran is winning.

Iran has won by exposing the United States to be an unreliable ally that's incapable of finishing what it started.Even pro -Israel publications are now calling it what it is, with The Telegraph saying Trump's promise to wipe out the Iranian civilization marked the end of the American century, with Bloomberg claiming US dominance in the Middle East is basically over, as The Atlantic explains why Trump's only option to end the war is to surrender to Iran's demands.The gravity of this cannot be overstated, because this means that the United States, the self -declared indispensable nation, the so -called guarantor of regional security, the empire that planted its military boot across the region for decades, is being pushed out and driven away.Maybe not all at once, maybe not in a single dramatic withdrawal, but strategically and systematically nevertheless.inch by inch, base by base, and in one humiliating failure after another.

Whatever happens next, whether we attack or we do not attack, whether we try to leave and say we were successful or not, I think we Americans are finished in the Middle East.And I think that's the greatest concern that Mr. Netanyahu has right now.If we cannot break Iran's grip on the Persian Gulf, if we cannot force our way back into the Persian Gulf, and I think it's pretty clear that we cannot, that means that we are finished in the region.We will not come back into these bases.There will be nothing to rebuild.

A Pentagon official explained to the New York Times how American tactics have become too predictable and how the United States can no longer keep its military bases and Israel safe from attack simultaneously.A reality affirmed in a new report showing the U .S.depleted far more of its advanced missile defense interceptors to defend Israel than Israel did defending itself.leaving the United States with a total of only 200 interceptor missiles to defend its bases against future attacks.It's for this reason that Iran rightly believes it can now successfully resist the United States and Israel by attacking energy infrastructure and military bases in neighboring Gulf states at will.

A CNN investigation found evidence of unprecedented destruction.We can reveal that strikes damaged at least 16 U .S.installations across eight countries.According to our analysis and sourcing, that's the majority of American military positions in the region.And some of them are virtually unusable now.

Iran's targets?multi -million dollar aircraft like this Boeing E3 Sentry which gave the US a huge amount of visibility over the gulf.It's out of production and in today's money it's worth nearly half a billion dollars.Also critical communications equipment and crucially radar systems highlysophisticated, expensive, difficult to replace, and central to air defense.One U .

S.source familiar with the damaged facilities told us that the scale of the hits was massive compared to what forces faced in Iraq and Afghanistan.According to the Pentagon, the U .S.evacuated more than 90 % of Americans from U .

S.positions.Every American base in the region is now within range.Every single one.That's not propaganda.That's a strategic reality that the Pentagon has now acknowledged, which means the entire post 9 -11 military project in the Middle East amounts to a catastrophic generational failure.

Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures across bases used by the United States military since the war began, hitting hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft and key radar communications and air defense equipment.These images prove that Iran can see, target and hit every U .S.military site in the region at any moment of its choosing.

Iran's visibility over its targets has never been clearer.In 2024, according to the Financial Times, Tehran secretly acquired a Chinese satellite known as the TEE -01B, a massive upgrade from its own satellites.That means that Tehran went from looking at images of this quality to this.This is the first time America has fought an adversary with satellites that capture high -res imagery almost as detailed as its own.As the scale of the damage comes into focus, many will wonder whether America's presence, once a protective shield in the Middle East, has turned into its Achilles heel.

The promise of American protection lies in ruins, because the US military bases are no longer shields against attack, they are targets for attack, with Iranian missiles all but destroying Israel's closest ally in the region, the United Arab Emirates.Which is why it, and Saudi Arabia,not only questioning their hosting agreements with the US, but also denying the US access to its airspace and military installations.

declined to grant the United States permission to use Saudi aerospace and major military installations for any direct operation connected to Iran.

Iran has exposed U .S.security to be a false idol because it has demonstrated that the United States doesn't possess an effective air defense shield to protect its own military assets in the Middle East, let alone the capability to shield an entire Gulf country against mass -produced cheap drones and missiles fired against a large area.This is why Arab states urged Trump to call off his plan to recommence attacks against Tehran.telling the U .S.

president that Iran will kill us with drones and we don't have an effective defense against that.

Donald Trump has called off a plan to attack Iran at the request of Gulf allies.The U .S.president was preparing to launch a fresh assault in the coming hours.

I was asked by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and some others if we could put it off for two or three days, a short period of time, because they think that they are getting very close to making it.

Iran didn't beat the United States in head -to -head confrontation, but it didn't need to.It won by making the cost of staying in the fight unbearable for the U .S.and its allies.Israel must now live with the realization that no future American president will risk hurting the U .S.

economy and his party's electoral chances by attacking Iran again.We are talking about a complete reordering of the region because Iran has demonstrated that American dominance in the Middle East isnot a law of nature.It is merely a political choice.And political choices, under enough pressure, eventually change.

Why is the most powerful country on the planet unable to get its way with a much smaller, weaker country that has been ravaged by economic sanctions and military strikes?At one level, the simplest way to understand America's problem in the Iran war is to use game theory.Donald Trump decided to play a game of chicken with Iran.Think of two drivers racing straight at each other.In these situations, if the stakes for one side are existential and for the other much lower, the side with those bigger stakes usually prevails.For the Iranian regime, if they lose, there's a good chance they end up toppled and slaughtered.

For Trump, it would be a bad weekend at Mar -a -Lago.It's easy to see why the Iranians would be more willing to lock their steering wheel in that game of chicken.

Trump is bored with the war he started and wants out, as his supporters and opposition urge him to disengage from the region and refocus US attention on the Asia -Pacific, where an ascended China threatens the security and strategic interests of Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia.But a U .S.pivot or re -pivot to Asia represents nothing less than a five -alarm strategic crisis for the Zionist state.Because without American hard power in the Middle East, Israel's deterrence calculus changes completely.It loses its unspoken threat that attacking Israel means you're attacking the United States.

And when the threat loses its weight, every adversary, from Hezbollah in the north to Iran in the east, starts recalculating.A recalculation that starts with the use of unmanned drones, which have swung realities on the battlefield in Hezbollah's favour, and there's little Israel can do about it, havinginvested so heavily in tools that won wars during the previous century, including a handful of exquisite, insanely expensive platforms like carriers, F -35s and tanks, all of which take years to upgrade.Both Iran and Ukraine have demonstrated that winning wars in the 21st century is about cost -benefit, or making attacks so expensive and difficult that even superpowers can't sustain over time.Cheap, mass -produced drones are the ultimate game -changer, because they have not only ended the era of unchecked American naval power, but also the era of American empire itself.

But they don't come individually.They come as a cloud, a digital locust designed to overwhelm the world's most advanced defense system through sheer, brutal numbers.2026, the question is no longer, can a carrier strike a target?It's, can a carrier survive the mass?For decades, the US Navy has relied on the Aegis combat system to create a steel dome over the fleet.But Aegis was designed to fight dozens of high -end missiles, not a thousand cheap drones.

If Tehran pulled the trigger today, would the USS Abraham Lincoln remain the king of the seas, or would it become the most expensive shipwreck in human history?To understand the threat, you have to understand the economics of modern war.A single US Navy SM -6 interceptor missile costs roughly $4 million.A single Iranian Shahed -136 drone costs about $20 ,000.Do the math.For the price of one American interceptor, Iran can launch 200 drones.

A report released on the 21st of May.shows that Iran is rebuilding its military -industrial base much faster than expected and has already restarted its entire drone production line during the ceasefire, producing hundreds of new drones each day, with an assessment by the CIA concluding that two -thirds of all Iranian missile launchers are now fully operational.But even worse for Israel.The war has transformed Iran from a regional player to a regional superpower.Seoul, or even shared control of the Strait of Hormuz, gives Iran more money, more power, and more prestige, bringing with it much closer ties with China and Russia.

Well, I just don't see what options Donald Trump has or is willing to undertake in order to open up the strait.And if Iran ends this conflict as it currently is in control of the strait, it really completely changes the situation in the Gulf.It puts Iran in the driver's seat.It gives Iran enormous leverage, not only in dealing with the United States, but in dealing with the rest of the world.If Iran can charge tolls, if Iran determines who gets in and out of the strait and when, that's just enormous power.And in fact, I think it's even more power than they would have if they were able to develop a nuclear weapon.

And I don't see what option Trump has to solve this problem because You know, they bombed Iran very effectively for 37 days.They took out the entire leadership.And yet Iran has never made a concession and they've never, the administration's never been able to do anything to open the strait.So I think the option that would be necessary would be a full scale invasion of Iran if you really wanted to remove the regime and open the strait.I don't think Donald Trump or the American people want to do that.

Israel will try desperately to drag the United States back through another manufactured crisis.through confrontation, through the belief that Washington simply can't afford to let Israel fail.That's been the Zionist strategy for decades.Create the emergency to force America's hand.

If you take out Saddam, Saddam's regime, I guarantee that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region.

Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time.It could be a year.

It could be within a few months.They have the wherewithal, the stored up preserved knowledge, to make a bomb very quickly if they wanted to do it.Iran is so dangerous.Weeks away from having the fissile material for an entire arsenal of nuclear bombs.They're very close.They're six months away from being about 90 % of having the rich uranium for an atom bomb.

Iran is gearing up to have, to produce 25 bombs, atomic bombs a year, 250 bombs in a decade.Ladies and gentlemen, time is running out.Iran will be capable of producing alone, without importing anything, nuclear bombs within three to five years.

If not, stop.Here's the problem with Israel's tired, old strategy of dragging the US into its illegal wars.It depends on an American political class that is willing to be dragged, and that political class is changing.The generational shift and pinging on Israel is not a talking point.It is a documented, measurable political reality in which a growing majority of elected lawmakers are punished more than they are awarded by voters for supporting the Zionist occupation.The leverage that Israel once had in Washington is gone.

So when people ask whether Israel is secure, is Israel safe in the long run, my answer is no.not on its current trajectory, not with a government that has systematically destroyed the two -state solution, alienated every potential regional partner, and bet everything on American military power that's no longer guaranteed.And no amount of lobbying, no amount of favorable op -eds in the New York Times, no amount ofaccusations of anti -Semitism directed at its critics, none of it changes the underlying geopolitical reality.America is retreating from the Middle East, the region is reorganizing in Iran's favor, and Israel has no plan B. Its days are numbered, and our mission is to reduce that number.But we need your help.

Remembering that the Israeli lobby successfully pressured YouTube into demonetizing our channel six months ago.Therefore, we kindly ask that you please support our effort to expose and confront the Zionist lobby and other injustices in the Muslim world by becoming a member of our show at patreon .com slash cjwerleman.We can't produce, sustain and grow this show without your help, and we offer exclusive content and other benefits to those who do.So whether you're watching or listening, wherever you are, stay blessed.