Trump Threatens to Kill the Men He's Negotiating With

Hey everyone, it's me, Sam Stein, managing editor at The Bulwark, and I'm here with Will Salatin for another Sunday special.Will is our designated survivor, which by that I mean, if we need someone to watch the Sunday shows, Will's our guy.

And I survived them.I survived them.

Yes, and you survived them.You deserve some sort of hazard pay, I think.Today was kind of a big day because this was a the first day of talks between the Iranians and the U .S.delegations in Switzerland, mediated by the Qataris.And then I think the Pakistanis are there, too.

It's hard to sort of make out what exactly is going on because there's conflicting reports about whether the talks were shambolic or they're just ongoing.But they started in a very typical fashion.And by that, I mean, Donald Trump decided to roll a grenade, unpin it and then roll it into the middle of it.I'm going to play for you a news interview that Trey Yankst of Fox News did based off of a phone conversation that he had with Trump.The context here is that the Iranians are upset with what's going on in Lebanon still because the Israelis are continuing to attack Lebanon and also because Hezbollah is attacking Israel and is responding to it.There's a war going on, kind of a low grade war going on in southern Lebanon, which is part of the MOU.

Like the first clause of the MOU between U .S.and Iran says that has to be considered part of the deal.There cannot be fighting in Lebanon.They're still fighting in Lebanon.Iran responds by saying, well, we're going to close the Strait of Hormuz.

The U .S.says, no, you haven't closed it.So again, back and forth.And then Trump calls into Fox and this is what happens.

Yeah, hey guys, good morning.I just spoke with President Trump for more than 20 minutes and he gave some new insight and reaction about the ongoing talks that are taking place in Switzerland and the threats coming from the Iranian regime.President Trump telling Fox News that the U .S.may take over the strait in the future if they have to and collecttolls.

The president described this as the United States being the guardian angel of the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East.And the president said ultimately that would involve the U .S.taking 20 percent of the oil that passes through the strait.Remember, this comes in reaction to the Iranians saying they will close the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon.President Trump tells Fox News he spoke with Iranian officials overnight and said you close it and you won't have a country he went on to tell these officials you won't even make it back to your effing country all right well Sam my brain hurts okay So let's set aside the part where he has negotiations with people and threatens to kill them before they get back to their country.

Before they leave the negotiating table.Generally not a well understood principle of diplomacy that if you want people to talk to you, you generally don't kill them while they're talking to you or before they get back.

But this, I will just say, this has been a, it's not like an idle threat, like the Israelis were doing this.There is real concern that if you do actually enter negotiations, You may get assassinated.I'm sure this is on the minds of the Iranians.

Yeah, no, they and obviously Trump always brags.We killed the first set.We killed the second set of leaders.Now we're talking to the third set.So when, as you say, when he threatens to kill the third set, they're going to take it seriously and you're not going to get negotiations.But can we come back to this part about that?

We're going to take over the straight.We're going to charge them, not even them.We're going to take 20 percent of the oil.And Sam, that's a threat to the whole world.That's a threat that we're just going to like steal.oil sold by one country to another country, neither of which is us.

Yeah.And so we're thieves.And of course, remember, the reason why Trump is doing this is because he's already been doing it in Venezuela, and he's been getting away with it, right?We're just like, we're confiscating some part of their oil, and we're putting it in Venezuela.Americans are putting up with it, the world's putting up with it.So It's more, I don't know, Sam, what's a nice way of saying war crime?

I mean, we're well, it is.

It's a threatening war crime for sure.I mean, he's talking about destroying civilization.And then this, the Strait of Hormuz stuff is obviously a part of it, too.But I keep coming back to the fact that at various junctures, he said, we don't even need the Strait of Hormuz.It's like, forget it.Let the Europeans deal with it.

That's that that we have enough oil for ourselves.Now he's going to take over the Strait of Hormuz, but also the Strait of Hormuz is already open.According to him.So why do we need to take it over?It's none of this makes any sense.

So let me throw in one other element that's going on today that's relevant to what you just said.Chris Wright, the energy secretary, did two interviews today.And he's telling everybody, oh, we have the strait open.And not just that it's open because Iran wants it open.No, we have part of it open under our control.Chris Wright's story is there's actually, Sam, there's actually three parts of the Strait of Hormuz.

There's a northern part the Iranians have, there's a middle part that they mined, and then there's this southern passage that we control.He's telling everybody we control it, we've been escorting ships through there, and now for Trump to claim that it's closed, you know, and that, so they're admitting that they don't have control.

Yeah.And then, you know, the other Obvious element here is like if you could take over the straight of four moves, you would have taken over the straight of four moves by now, right?I mean, this has been sort of a background threat for months.where Trump has said, we'll just take it over and then we don't do it.And the reason we don't do it is because it would require an incredibly risky military investment on our part.It would require boots on the ground.

We would see a lot of casualties potentially, but also a huge investment of U .S.taxpayer dollars.It's not like something we could just sort of put our flag in and be like, it's ours, back off.So, you know, if you would, this is the thing, the threat ofsort of less teethy, right?

The more you make them, right.And I don't think the Iranians are like that persuaded this juncture, but it doesn't help negotiations if you're doing it at the onset of the negotiations.

Yeah.I mean, as, as you say, it's bluster and everyone's figured out it's bluster, but you, what you have from the Trump administration, Donald Trump himself is simultaneously Message number one, the Iranians are begging.We control everything, right?Message number two, and sorry, I'm just going to quote from his truth from a couple of months ago.Open the fucking straight, right?I mean, you crazy bastards.

Remember that?He's screaming at them.Up front, out front, that's supposed to be a threat that we're going to hurt you.But really, that's begging.That's like, we can't open it.So we're asking you to do it.

I guess the other thing to note here, and then we can move on to what actually happened in Switzerland today, is that The MOU itself does reference the Strait.It does talk about free passageway through the Strait for 60 days.But it seems to have become sort of the general understanding, and I'm not sure anyone has actually authoritatively disputed this, that the Iranians feel like, after 60 days, they can do what they want with the Strait and the Oman authorities, that's the country in the southern part, and that they'll come up with some sort of fee service, more or less.It won't be a toll.They're not going to call it a toll.They'll say it's a fee.

And no one seems to be actually saying, no, that's not the case.And in fact, every report from today is that there is negotiations specifically around the street and what the future of the street is, which is, I guess, maybe I'm just sort of naive about this, but that does seem to be a real problem when it comes to negotiations, because you're starting from a place that didn't actually exist prior to the war.The war, you know, the street was open and usable for anyone prior to the war.And now you're negotiating.from a point of weakness of the United States because you have to give a concession of some sorts or fight the concession.And the Iranians will say, well, yeah, we'll give you free passage to the straits, but it's going to cost you, right?

So I just want to put that out there as some important context.

Yeah, I mean, so point number one, what you said about the strait was open.I mean, we have Vance and Trump and everybody in the administration bragging today that they've negotiated to open the strait.Which was getting us back to square one.That's nothing.You stopped banging our head against the wall.That's what you did, right?

Right.But the other thing about the 60 days, Sam, so the Trump and Vance story is, oh, it'll be open after 60 days.Don't worry.Why then did you, Trump and Vance, sign this deal, negotiate this deal that literally says this will be, the strait will be open without tolls from us, Iran, for only 60 days.The word, that's literally in the agreement.That is a concession.

And you can't then start the next stage of the negotiations claiming, well, I know we said it was only 60 days, but now presumptively it's going to be open.You put the presumption in the document and the presumption was after 60 days, it's fair game for the Iranians.

Yeah, well, I don't know if the 60 days are going to be enough for these negotiations, although we'll see.But the first day had its ups and downs.So J .D.Vance is the sacrificial lamb for Trump, and he's out there in Switzerland and he's talking with the Iranians.And there was a lot of sort of like I don't want to call like Zapruder film analysis, but it was getting close, like body language.

Who's back there?Who's coming in first?Who's coming in second?Who's shaking whose hands?And so Steve Weirkoff's in the back.But the sort of the body language analysts that were in my Twitter feed were getting a little bit tickled by the power dynamics situation here.

This video was circulating pretty widely of JD Vance kind of gettingslighted and looking like he's just being ignored by members of some delegation.So let's play the clip.Okay, that was the Qataris.I just want to be clear.And they just don't shake his hand and he's just sort of sitting, standing there waiting for something.

So I don't know if I'm over, overanalyzing it.Maybe it was just a moment, but it does seem like JD is kind of in a weird spot.

Sam, it's not you.It's JD.He, he gestures like he's expecting to get his handshake.Like don't do like, you know, People have to understand JD Vance was like knows nothing about international relations.He's picked up everything he can on the fly over the last year or two and he's so he.clearly didn't know what he was supposed to do there, or he got snubbed.

I don't know the details of it.But one way or another, he created the visual impression that he was expecting a handshake he didn't get.And the message, by the way, from the Trump people is, oh, don't worry about what you see out front.Don't worry if we don't get our handshake.And don't worry if, in public, the Iranians are threatening to close the strait, or they're saying they're not going to give us stuff.Because really, really, behind the scenes, they're giving us everything.

Really, we're having great negotiations.In what world should we accept these claims of hidden success that the Iranians won't put out front?It sure looks to me like the obvious, the simplest explanation is our government is lying to us about what the Iranians are saying.

Right.Well, there's also this whole thing of like, well, we have some gentlemen agreements on the side.And it's like, I don't know if I believe that.I'm not I'm going to choose not to believe until I see it in writing.Right.It just doesn't.

And that's by the way, that's another thing that Chris Wright was talking about.Like they were asking him, well, it looks like the Iranian government.are like, you know, reneging on parts of the deal.And he's like, yeah, well, they're the Iranians.That's what they do.And meanwhile, you get this garbage about, well, we have a gentleman's agreement with this country that we accuse rightly of lying all the time and reneging on agreements.

And, you know, so it's the stuff about a gentleman's agreement to me just looks like cover for we didn't, we negotiated a crappy deal.We don't really have the leverage that we thought we did, but we're pretending that they're working with us.They're cooperating.

So the big that was a moment of drama.And then there was another moment of drama.I was watching some Al Jazeera coverage of this.The Iranians look to have left the discussions over Trump's threats.There were some statements put out from their delegation saying we're not going to negotiate under threat and then some bellicosity and some puffery about how great they are and yada yada yada.It's not clear.

And even on the Al Jazeera broadcast, they made it clear this is not the end to the negotiations in Switzerland.It was a form of protest over Trump saying, you know, we're going to bomb you and kill you and all that stuff, which I get.But talks are presumably still going on.And we know this, or we're told this, I should say.We don't know this.We're told this through Barak Ravid, who is the Axios reporter who seems to have an in on with the US delegation and some US officials tend to go to Barack and you can see there's a lot of text there.

It's very thin.I'll try to summarize it.He says, US diplomat told me talks with Iranians started on Sunday morning and have been ongoing in different formats almost nonstop.U .S.diplomat said one of the main issues the talks focused on during the day was deconfliction mechanisms in Lebanon and enforcing the ceasefire.

Again, this is important because for the Iranians, nothing's going to happen until this is dealt with.U .S.diplomat added the U .S., Iran, and the mediators discussed the Strait of Hormuz in the recent Iranian statements.

allegedly closing it. Quote, weQuote, we made clear we want to ensure it remains fully open.We made good progress on that front.Again, the fact that they're still working on this is a problem.U .S.

diplomats said the talks today also focused on, quote, all elements of the nuclear deal.Okay, that's very vague.U .S.diplomat added that the parties had productive talks on the implementation of the MOU and how to make sure everyone is on the same page.That's not great.

You got to make sure you're on the same page with the MOU when you sign it.All right.The parties also discussed a plan for how to keep the talks going both on the political level and between the technical teams.So they're talking about how to keep talking.Quote, all four parties seem pleased with how the talks went today.The media are helping both sides work through things.

We feel this initial round of talks is setting us up for trust building going forward.OK, OK, now that's important.I'm not going to I won't laugh at that.Trust building is important.The talks and the high level political leadership are expected to end on Monday and continue between technical teams that will likely stay in Switzerland.

All right, what do you make of that, Will?Sam, this is the kind of diplomatic mumbo -jumbo that conservatives used to be really annoyed and disgusted, like, oh, that's the way the UN talks, or that's the way some soft democratic administration talks about peace talks between Israel and Palestine.You know, everything's about the process.We're talking about how we're going to work through blah, blah, blah, but you're not actually getting anywhere.It's what you say when you don't really have anything.You don't even have, as you said, we don't have a common basis established in the MOU.

about the nuclear program.There was one other thing I wanted to say about Lebanon, if you wanted to.Sure.

Well, I'll just, I'll add to this and then you can do Lebanon, which is, you're absolutely right.Because according to these, this US diplomat talking to Barak Ravid, if you just read the plain text of what he's saying, the two major elements of the MOU are now radically in dispute.What's happening in Lebanon and what's happening in Lebanon.the street.And so we are not at a post -MOU negotiation.We are at a, can we get back to a jointly established understanding of the MOU?

And that's happening while the Iranians are protesting various elements of the talks and the Qataris are apparently snubbing JD Vance and Trump's issuing threats through Fox News about killing the Iranian negotiators.It's not.I mean, I don't think objectively it's a very strong first day.It could be fine, but it's just this is not a great.starting point for the negotiations.

Yeah, I mean, it's the kind of day that is consistent with theory number one about what's going on, which is that Donald Trump and J .D.Benson, this administration have no idea what they're doing.They're making it up as they go along.And this is the kind of day that you would have on day one if that were if that were the case.I wanted to throw in one thing about Lebanon.

Why is this Lebanon stuff even in the agreement?This was an Iranian agreement.This was a giant concession to Iran.This was part, you know, we said they were begging.So we've reaffirmed that Iran has influence over Lebanon, that Iran has regional control, and that if things aren't the way that Iran wants it to be in Lebanon, somehow the Iran deal would fall through.And we've hamstrung the Israelis who, from their point of view, it's like, wait, this is a whole separate deal.

And we've created a linkage to help Iran You know, it's not a linkage that helps us in any way.It's because it's just been a headache.So this was the fact that it is in the agreement and that is holding things up is an expression of the weakness of the or the stupidity of this administration and giving away something they didn't need to.

It also creates a system where Hezbollah can just basically throw a wrench in anything.Exactly.And the Iranians could say, well, you know, we don't control Hezbollah.Right.Like, well, I mean, obviously they do, but they can just say they, you know, we can't stop them from attacking.

And Vance, by the way, bragged about this.Vance bragged all of last week about, we put this thing in about regional peace and stability.It uses paragraph one of the MOU, basically.And you read paragraph one, it doesn't really constrain Iran, because Iran has terrorist proxies.It constrains us, and it constrains the Israelis, because it's about, quote, military action.And that paragraph, that paragraph one, is being used right now by the Iranians to hold up the talks and say that we and the Israelis are in violation.

So this just goes back to this MOU was either negotiated by very stupid people, which, you know, that's yes, but or people who did not actually have control of the situation and had to make that concession to the Iranians in order to get a deal.It is a mess, man.All right.

I got to go.I got to I got to cook some stuff for my Father's Day grill session with my own dad and my kid, which reminds me, though, because it's still there's still time.It's still Father's Day.We're recording about 520 p .m.on Sunday.

But if you're seeing this and you're like, oh, shit, shit.I forgot to get my dad a gift and my dad needs like some good sane news in his life people who just cut through the bullshit.I know what I'm going to get him.I'm going to get him a Bulwark membership.Well, look, folks, it's the gift.It's the only gift to get your dad on Father's Day.

It's the best last minute gift, a panic purchase to get your father on Father's Day.All you got to do is go to the Bulwark dot com slash subscribe.You can get a membership plan, monthly annual founders, navigators.You want to go crazy.Navigators is crazy.You get great stuff.

commercial -free stuff, you get content like this all the time, just go to the membership plan of your choice.That's bulwark .com slash subscribe.Will, thank you for doing this, buddy.I'm sure we're going to be talking about these negotiations for a while.Thank you for that, okay?

Good luck with the barbecue, Sam.

All right, take care, bud.