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Trump Totally Lost It — and MAGA's Done

The Lincoln Project32 views
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Your task will not be an easy one.

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Your enemy is well -trained, well -equipped, and battle -hardened.

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There is not a liberal America and a conservative America.There is the United States of America.

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Hey, folks.It's Friday, June 26th, 2026.Midsummer.The days are already getting shorter.Election is coming.And this election's got a weird character to it now.

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Donald Trump went to the Senate this week.He hasn't done that in a long time.Most presidents go down and meet with their caucuses periodically, and they get together, they make a few deals here and there, they talk back and forth, they work together to advance the political agenda of their party.Republicans do this, Democrats do this, and it's an honor for the president to come down to the Senate or the House to meet with the caucus.But this week, Donald Trump came and went to war with his caucus in the U .S.

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Senate, and it was the most foolish, arrogant, insane thing I think he could have possibly done.And that, my friends, is this week's Elephant in the Room.So why does it matter?Why does it matter that Donald Trump went down to the Senate after a very long absence from that august body at the invitation of Senator Rick Scott, or Medicare fraud, instead of the Senate Majority Leader, John Thune?Thune has a total of 53 bodies in the U .S.

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Senate right now.And the things Trump is asking Thune to do are impossible politically.Rick Scott didn't see it that way.Why did Rick Scott invite him?Because Rick Scott hates John Thune.He wants to be Senate Majority Leader or Minority Leader, which is looking increasingly likely.

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And Donald Trump walked in that room.and berated them, and yelled at them, and screamed at them, and lost his mind.And some of those Republican senators returned the favor.Bill Cassidy, chief amongst them.

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He asked the president, is that a rhetorical question, or do you want to actually know the answer?

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The president was wondering why people would vote for the War Powers Act.I asked him if that would be a rhetorical question or a real question.He said real.

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The president invited him to share why he voted the way that he did.And essentially, Cassidy berated the president for what has transpired in Iran, for not being clear with Congress about his actions in the region.

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The president didn't want to hear my question, interrupted me, I didn't care to be interrupted.I felt like I was trying to get answers for the American people.

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And essentially arguing that until he got a more fulsome briefing of what was transpiring, he was going to continue voting the way that he was voting.Cassidy said that the president was raising his voice.And in response, he continued to raise his.He said he lost his temper, that he's not necessarily proud of that fact.

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Well, um, um, voices were raised.

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Any regrets on anything he said?No.

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I'm not going to be bullied when I'm trying to get answers for the American people.But what Trump did when he walked in that door was demand things they cannot do, demand things that are politically fatal for them, because Donald Trump has never been about them.They know this.They get this.They've seen this show now for over a decade.He's willing to burn them down.

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He's willing to primary them.He's willing to screw them over.He's willing to make them drag the worst stinking corpseof his idiotic political ideas across their doorstep.The things that got him on Wednesday, that enraged him on Wednesday.They haven't passed the SAVE Act.

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to pass the SAVE Act.But people will be doing some early voting.People will have to deal with registrations.Does any rational person who's ever had any experience with implementing election law really think that it's possible to have all that in place in time for this election and not be disruptive?And incidentally, it's an unfunded mandate that has zero dollars for implementation.So I would ask anybody who actually understands how to pass laws, implement them, and have them in place at the level that they need to be to ensure the integrity of elections, How absurd is it to think that could be done by November?

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What is the SAVE Act?It is a weird Stephen Miller fetish product where he wants to ensure that when you show up to vote, you have to have your passport, your driver's license, a blood sample, a DNA sample.You have to prove you went to school in America.All the crap.

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Last year, members of Congress tried to pass the SAVE Act, an anti -voter bill that could have blocked 21 million eligible American citizens from voting.It failed to pass because people across this country stood up and opposed this show -your -papers policy.But now, lawmakers are trying again by introducing new versions of this unpopular bill.Every version of the SAVE Act would require Americans to show a document like a passport or a birth certificate, every time.they register to vote.More than 21 million American citizens don't have these documents readily available.

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And roughly half of U .S.citizens don't even have a passport.These laws especially hurt younger voters and voters of color.Only American citizens vote, and the exceptions are vanishingly rare.There are already checks in place to make sure this is true.

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The SAVE Act would block millions of eligible American citizens from voting.

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It's one more election manipulation attempt on their part.Trump's also throwing some other garbage in there about men and women in sports, but whatever.They don't have the votes.They don't have the 60 votes to overcome the filibuster by any stretch of the imagination.They don't even have 50 votes to shoot for a rule change.They don't have the votes for the SAVE Act.

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It has gone to the floor five times and failed five times because they don't have the votes for the SAVE Act.But he went in there yesterday and treated it like, I will veto everything, including this housing bill, which I'm going to get to in a second, because they won't pass the SAVE Act.They can't pass the SAVE Act unless they nuke the filibuster.What happens if they nuke the filibuster?

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I also want to call for a termination to the filibuster so that this can never happen again.If we had the filibuster terminated, this would never happen again.And don't forget, we have another date coming up in the not too distant future.We can never let this happen again.And we should be able to pass great, really great legislation.So I say terminate the filibuster because, by the way, the Democrats will do it immediately if they ever assumed office, which hopefully they won't.

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Trump doesn't think it matters.He thinks that if they nuke the filibuster, they can do whatever he tells them and everything will be fine.John Thune, correctly has made a decision that if they nuke the filibuster now, that the Democrats are going to say thank you when they take power.I can tell you what's going to happen that day, and Republicans are going to like it.They're going to start passing legislation bypassing the filibuster.doing it with 50 votes, and Republicans are not going to like it.

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It's going to be real hard for them to understand the world that will exist in front of them.You know, a lot of folks leave the doctor's office, they don't know what they don't know.They don't understand what's behind all the numbers in their various tests that the doctor may or may not order.People want to understand their health.They're taking agency and responsibility for their own lives, for their own health, for the outcomes that, unless you ask the right questions, you won't be able to take control of.I'm fascinated with superpower because what they're doing now, I think, is helping Americans get a much clearer idea about their health, adjust their diet, their supplements, their exercise plan.

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What will happen?We're going to get a big fat tax cut, or a big fat tax increase, excuse me, for billionaires.We're going to get an antitrust bill that breaks up the media conglomerates that Trump has approved, including Paramount, CBS, CNN.That's all going to get broken up.Google is going to lose its ad search business.That's all going to get broken up.

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They're going to pass a national assault bill, an assault rifle bill.They're going to pass gun control.They're going to pass climate legislation.They're going to pass mandatory LGBT training in school.Whatever you think, whatever the worst thing Republicans, you think it's going to happen, it will happen.They're going to go after the Trump family.

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11:25

If you've passed, if you kill the filibuster, you are going to turn the world on its head.Now, of course, if you kill the filibuster and the Republicans take power in the Senate again, you know what they're going to do?They're going toreverse all of it.The filibuster is an unpleasant, but necessary reality.And I think it's one that we ought to just go ahead and acknowledge is a speed break to the abuse of power in the Senate by any party.

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You don't have to like it, but you don't want the Senate to be the fast track greased pole of our politics.Trump does because he doesn't understand it.He's not smart enough to understand it.He is not a smart man.You should understand.He is not a smart man.

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He does not understand that a caucus is a delicate thing.And there are six people in that caucus right now who fucking hate Donald Trump, who hate him with the fire of a billion suns, OK?They are sick to death of this guy.

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We like our leader.We like everybody really in the room.I don't like a few people, but that's OK. I think you know who they are.But I'll give you that information someday.

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You know a lot of them.Cornyn, who Trump just screwed politically by endorsing Ken Paxton in Texas.

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I've known John Cornyn for a long time.But unfortunately, you know, when it really counted, Ken Paxton was there for the country, was there for the president.And that's why he ultimately earned the president's endorsement.He thinks he's going to be a better senator, thinks he's going to make a better candidate.

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Cornyn, by the way, if you follow his Twitter feed lately, you know he is planning a beautiful set of fuck you's for Trump.The revenge is going to be quite, quite sweet.Cassidy, again, a guy who Trump screwed over in the primary.

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Hello, Louisiana.Great, great place.A place that I won all three times.Three times, and it wasn't even close.It was by record -setting numbers.And whatever the power I have there, I'm going to give it to somebody who's very, very special.

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I'm thrilled to give my complete and total endorsement to your next United Statessenator from Louisiana, Julia Letlow.She's been a friend of mine.She's been loyal as can be.We've had great success.Every time I've endorsed her, she won.

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And she's been a great congresswoman.

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Didn't like him because he voted for impeachment five years ago.OK, that guy is that guy went and he and Trump got in it yesterday or Wednesday.They were screaming at each other.They were in their face, screaming at each other.

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We're told the president called you a lunatic?

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Can I imagine if the president called me things that would be said on a playground?Yeah, I can imagine that.

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Does it bother you that he went after Leader McConnell, who wasn't here to defend himself?

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If there's somebody I know who's got thick skin, it's Leader McConnell.

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Do you believe that this is the way the president should be conducting himself in a meeting with colleagues?

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I'll let the president's actions speak for themselves.

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I would pay so much fucking money for a video of that.Glorious.Tom Tellis, North Carolina.He's on the way out the door, too.Another guy who's like, I can't deal with Trump anymore.

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Peter, Los Angeles, United States

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14:37

The president's been saying that six people have been arrested for vandalizing the Reflecting Pool.They're saying it's a crime that warrants years in jail, potentially.What's your response to that?

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January 6th.

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What does that mean?

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Look, I'm hearing, I mean, how many dozens, let's get rid of the people that were arguably over prosecuted and deserve a pardon.You're telling me, even if it proves to be true, that damaging a lining in the reflecting pool is something that Pirro wants to prosecute to the full extent of the law, if it's proven true, and yet they're releasing people who pled guilty to assaulting a police officer?

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what freaking parallel universe did I just wake up in and of course Murkowski and of course Susan Collins that if I'm elected I will

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only serve two terms, regardless of whether term limits law, constitutional amendment passes or not.12 years is long enough to be in public service, make a contribution, and then come home and let someone else take your place.

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They're all, in varying capacities, really angry about where Trump has put them politically.Now, some of the smarter ones who somebody want to be president or somebody want to be viable for the MAGA horde.They kept their mouth shut yesterday.They also are uncomfortable with where Trump has been leading them.And I'm going to tell you why the mood in the room was so ugly.He's lied to them about Iran.

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The war is going very well.As you know, we're winning by a lot.Iran is making very big concessions.We'll see what happens.But it's been very, very, very powerful.It's going very very well.

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He's kept them in the dark and expected them to just vote for whatever he wants when they have spent nine year ten years now with the Iran JCPOA deal that Obama did was a terrible deal and it was terrorism and da da da da da and Iran is dangerous Iran is this I would have never given him back the money I would have said the money is off the table.

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Let's start negotiating and you know what I would have won that negotiation We can't continue to make deals like that horrible Iran deal where we give them a hundred and fifty billion dollars back.

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The Iran deal was so bad.

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We paid $150 billion to sign a horrible agreement.

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And Trump's going to give them $300 billion.That is a foreign policy hit on this country that they recognize.Universally, they are angry about the Iran situation.They are angry that he's tried to force them into doing this $1 .8 billion slush fund, which was off.It's on.It's off.

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It's on.Now it's on again.where Todd Blanch is out trying to run around and try to get into it.Okay.They are angry that he has continued to make them pony up, that they all have to say the right words about the ballroom and the arch and the reflecting algae pool and all this stuff.That is not what they needed this year.

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They needed an affordability message and they're desperate for one.And that's why the icing on the cake yesterday was just before Trump walked in those doors, just before he sat down with the Senate Republican caucus.Trump said, I'm canceling the housing bill, not signing it.

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About what?The housing bill that you didn't sign today.

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I said I'm not signing the housing bill.I want to see what happens.We said, look, the housing bill is housing.I made billions of dollars with housing.I know housing better than anybody, maybe anywhere.It's all about the interest rate.

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It was the one thing that the House and the Senate had managed to do this year that had any sort of affordability message in it.They've done nothing else on affordability.Nothing.Zero.Zip.Buckus.

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Nada.The infinite void of icy space.And the one thing they were going to have was this housing bill.And he killed it.

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There's so much talk about, oh, we're going to drive housing prices down.I don't want to drive housing prices down.I want to drive housing prices up.

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Now, it's going to become law under his name.blah, blah, blah, without him signing it.But here's the key part of that you should keep in mind.The fun and funny part of it.Trump literally walked down and said the words, nobody gives a fuck about housing.Thank you for the ad, Donald.

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Thank you.Thank you for the, thank you for the ad.Because if you don't think anybody gives a fuck about housing in this country, I have some news for you.What is the thing in which Americans feel the most distress?Younger Americans.particular?

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The American dream was owning a home, having a good job and owning a home.Well, that's out of reach for the vast majority of Americans now.This bill was not going to fix everything about that, but it was going to address some of it.And now you get nothing.Inflation is still rising.The stock market is finally realizing the AI crack binge is a lie and a snare and a delusion.

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They needed one little thing from him, just one thing.one thing that wasn't a distraction, one thing that wasn't chaos monkey bullshit, one thing that wasn't insanity, one thing that wasn't Donald Trump endlessly, endlessly grinding away over the gold leaf Giga Timu bullshit in the White House, or the arch, or the ballroom, or the reflecting pool, or the Kennedy Center.They needed one thing from him, just a tiny little thing to hang their hat on.They didn't get it.He doesn't care.This is something the Senate has taken a very long time to finally understand.

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he doesn't care if they win or lose.He doesn't care.He thinks he can govern if the Senate's in a Democratic majority, that he'll just ignore them and move forward.There's an argument in Trump's feeble and febrile brain that being in the minority could be good for him, that having the Senate in the hands of Chuck Schumer could be good for him.Trump right now sat in that room on Wednesday and acted like they owe him something.He's attacked them.

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He's hurt their politics.their electoral and their political chances deeply.He's pissed off members who were loyal soldiers who voted with him 97, 98, 99 % of the time and he went against them anyway.All because his ego can't stand criticism.All because he can't be the guy who ever loses.He can't be the guy who ever is rejected on something.

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Nothing about what Trump is or does in that room is a two -way street.The ones he didn't attack, he thinks they owe him.He thinks that his terrible, horrible, no -good, shit -level, sub -basement -tier polling.And folks, he hit 30 % this week, 30 % this week in the ARG poll.In the same poll, only 6 % of voters thought the economy was going in the right direction.They own all this.

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It is around their neck like a boat anchor.It's like they've rolled in the stink and it's not going to come off.But he still thinks they owe him.They owe him obedience and fealty and loyalty and whatever he wants.Something's happening inside the GOP that even they don't quite understand yet.Because look, there's a typology in the Senate of the Republicans.

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Let's take the 53 Republicans in the Senate.Six of them, we know, as I outlined for you, are already off the reservation.Ten of them will never leave him.They're the nutjobs, they're the kooks, they're the weirdos, the Cindy Hyde Smiths, the ding -dongs, right?Four or five of them want to be president, and they're maneuvering now in the background.That's the Tom Cottons, the Josh Hawleys, the Ted Cruzes.

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A few of them believe that there is a path that smells like Trump, looks like Trump, sounds like Trump, but isn't Trump, for them to hold power in the Senate after he's gone.Rick Scott is that sort of cohort.Lindsey Graham, that sort of cohort.But none of them understand yet that while they may be from red states, the red states you thought were safe in an era where Trump had 50 % approval are not safe when Trump has 30 % approval.And it's starting to rise up in their minds now thatthere's no safe path for them.

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If they defy Trump, he attacks them and their voters don't come out.If they obey Trump, their voters say, what are you doing, man?What is this about?Because not one of these Republican senators can go home and look their voters in the eye and say, I'm fighting for you every day.trying to do something about this inflation, trying to do something about these fuel prices, trying to do something about grocery prices, trying to do something about corruption in Washington.I'm focused every day on getting jobs and manufacturing going.

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I'm focused every day on ending these tariffs that have hurt you so badly.I'm focused every day on ending this war in Iran that you hate so much.And Republicans hate the war in Iran just as much as everybody else does.They can't do it.He has boxed them.They have bought this entire package.

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And you don't just get to wear the hat.You got to wear the whole clown suit if you're with Trump.And you see that clown suit being worn in places now where it used to be an easy lift.There used to be a presumption that being with Trump was going to turn up the base, get those base voters out, and deliver you the win.The realization they're having, this creeping, slow realization that they're having, is that being with Trump now has become political poison.It's taken a very long time.

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There's an evolution inside the Republican base where Trump's approval with Republicans dropped from 97 % down into the high 60s.mid -60s in some polls.There's also a phenomenon that they're very frightened of, and that is that conservative independents are leaving the Republican Party and becoming independent voters.Now, they may not have left the GOP formally on their voter reg yet, but they're telling pollsters now.We've seen the numbers are large enough to detect it statistically.They're telling pollsters, oh, I'm an independent.

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When you look at independent voters this year, including conservative -leaning independent voters, when we started looking at this number absurdly high,at the beginning of 25, it was about 1 to 1.Trump did well with independence in 2024.He just did.By the end of 2025, the number was about 2 to 1 against Trump for independent voters.Now the number, depending on the survey, ranges between 3 to 1 against Trump and Republicans, up to 4 to 1 against Trump and Republicans.

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25:23

Trump is in single digits with independent voters in a bunch of states.He is upside down.in Alabama on his approval.He's upside down on his approval in Texas.He's upside down on his approval in Ohio and Iowa and Nebraska and Kansas and Florida.Some places by a lot, some places by a little, but that presumption that they had for years was got to keep Trump happy.

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Trump's voters come to come out.If he likes me, they'll come out and vote for me is untrue.And that frustration they felt in the room in, in the Senate on Wednesday was because they can't look away from that reality anymore.They get it.that a safe seat five months ago, six months ago, 10 months ago, in an R plus 10 state, is now a crapshoot.Now look, are Democrats going to pick up every single one of these races?

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No, of course not.But the competitive nature of Democratic candidates for the US Senate and for statewide races, for governors and Senate races, in places like Iowa, you've got Rob Sandin and Josh Turek.In places like Texas, where you've got James Tallarico, where you've got Congressman Bobby Polito, who's a rock star, coming up fast.In Florida, for God's sake, you've got David Jolly and Alex Finman in the hardest state to win in the forest, the hardest state to win.I'll tell you why.It's not because it's the most Republican.

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It's because the party is the best Republican operation in the country.I know.I helped build it over the years.I've abandoned that a long time ago.But the system that it works in Florida, you should not see David Jolly ahead of Byron Donalds at any poll.But yet, here he is over and over again ahead of Byron Donalds.

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Byron Donalds, by the way, they do not call him Byron Degenerate in Tallahassee for nothing.You're going to hear more.Alex Vindman, tied with Ashley Moody in a couple of polls, close in a couple of others.He should be 25 points back by any statistical measure.And yet, He's in the hunt.John Ossoff in the great state of Georgia, a state that was reliably going to turn red.

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Everybody knew it.Ossoff, most improved candidate out there in the entire pack this year as a guy who has suddenly found his voice, his heart, his rhetoric, his intentionality, his authenticity, his authority.

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Donald spent Saturday complaining on the internet.Listen to this.Six hours, 52 posts.The president attacked the Pope.He posted his own face on Mount Rushmore and a made -up Trump Peace Prize.He announced three times America's back, and he assured an increasingly concerned public he's in excellent health.

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And when not posting, he's been trying to rob us.Have you seen it?He sued the U .S.government he commands for $10 billion.He settled the suit with himself to create a $1 .8 billion slush fund so he can cut checks to cronies and Jan 6 foot soldiers.

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the same men who sacked the capital.to seize the presidency for Donald Trump, who beat police officers with flagpoles, built a gallows on the Capitol lawn, and hunted the vice president to lynch him.Donald Trump's brown shirts.He pardoned him, and now he wants you to pay him.He's trying to put his face on the money.Did you see that?

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He's building a monument to himself.But see, Atlanta, he's doing these things now because no one will honor him when he's gone.Because he's a failed president and a national disgrace.

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He's going to crush that race.And I think he's going to pull Keisha Lance Bottoms as well in the governor's office.That's a tougher race than the Senate there.But guys, that's Georgia.In Texas, Tallarico is posting up on Paxton over and over again ahead of him.Republican enthusiasm in Texas is low.

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Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof.We are running against the broken system and the powerful people who broke it.

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They're scared of the movement we are building.

30:24

It's a lesson.North Carolina.Cooper is going to blow that state out.That race is not even in the joking category anymore.Platner in Maine, I don't care what the oppo research has said that the Republicans think they have.They've now inoculated him by using a Republican hit woman to go after him.

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And it didn't work.And Susan Collins can squawk all she wants.But you know what?Graham Plattner is an asshole.OK.But you know what he's not?

31:01

He doesn't have his lips wrapped around Trump's ass every day.And she does.Alaska.Sullivan sucking wind in Alaska.Guys, the world is changing underneath the Senate.That anxiety, that frustration, that sense of dislocation they're feeling in that meeting with Trump, that anger that's brewing up there, how the Senate hostages are suddenly like, wait, he's never letting us go.

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He's going to kill us.Because that's the analogy here.He's a kidnapper who doesn't intend to take the deal.He intends to kill the hostages.Aside from Rick Scott doing the Hans booby, I'm your white knight act.

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I mean, first off, you should be unbelievably proud of this president.He is trying to do everything he can to bring peace to the world.What he's done in Iran is is so remarkable.

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31:54

Almost everybody in that Senate caucus on Wednesday got it.They understood it.They got the joke.They felt the cold wind of death blowing on them in that meeting because he doesn't care.He will burn it all down.They're going to have to go out on the trail.

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and be asked questions like, will you fund Donald Trump's ballroom?Will you fund Donald Trump's slush fund for the J6 terrorists?Will you fund the continuation of Todd Blanche's cover -up of the Epstein materials?None of them want to answer those questions.And a lot of them didn't think they were going to have a race this year.A lot of them thought they were going to skate.

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It was going to be easy.There's nothing easy for them.The only easy day for the Republican Party was yesterday, and that rule applies every day.I'm fascinated by the way people describe that meeting coming out of it, because you should always take those explanations and multiply the downside by 10.If they say it was a spirited discussion, that means people were throwing chairs at each other.If they say it was candid, that means they were like, fuck you, I hate you.

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If they say it was direct, that means That means they were middle fingers out.They came out of that meeting saying people were screaming.Burgess Everett reported it and said that a source told him it was a total clusterfuck, or cluster Trump, as I like to say.Trump himself said, I don't like some of the people in the room, which means he was screaming at them.What he wants from Republicans is impossible to deliver now.He wants them to just say, yes, sir.

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Ballroom is funded.Slush fund is funded.We're going to put your name back on the Kennedy Center forever and ever.Amen.None of it works.Because even these guys have an electoral imperative.

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Preserving the majority in the House, no matter all the redistricting trickery they did, is a very hard assignment.Increasingly, preserving the majority in the Senate is a very hard assignment.And they're not used to working hard.That's the secret about Republicans, you should know.The reason they gerrymander the shit out of things is not just because they hate Black people or because they want to ensure their electability.It's because a lot of them are fucking lazy.

34:21

That laziness is is in the form of wanting nothing more than an easy skate.They want to get back to D .C.They don't want to live in ass crack in Alabama.They don't want to live in fuck nugget Arkansas.They want to live in a

34:36

The food is better.The women are prettier.This is a simple formula that has motivated Republican elected officials since time immemorial.So they redistrict themselves into safe seats, or what they thought were safe seats.Those seats are not safe anymore.They got a little bit of an advantage, but the House is still very, very much a stretch for them to preserve it.

34:58

The Senate is getting worse by the day.the consequences are going to trickle downhill into state legislative races, into local races, because right now, they don't have a hook.They don't have a way to overcome the damage Trump has done to them.Voters get it.In Iowa, my colleague Joe Tripp, he's been on Iowa a lot lately, and they're out in farm country talking to folks.Friends in Nebraska, out in farm country talking to folks who are red voters, who are Republicans through and through, and yet, When you ask them, they're like, no, I'm done with Trump.

35:36

I'm done with it.He fucked us.He screwed us over.We're hurting.We're suffering.We're going to lose the farm.

35:41

You know, the senators slowly are creeping up to that realization too.They're going to lose the farm too.And that, my friends, is this week's Elephant in the Room.Thanks so much for listening to the Elephant in the Room.We would love for you to go click on that like and subscribe button on whatever app you're listening to us on.If it's on Apple, click that follow key so you'll get this uploaded every week for free.

36:04

If it's on YouTube, ring that bell, baby.Appreciate you all.Have a great Fourth of July weekend.We really, really appreciate all your great comments on the show and really appreciate you being a part of our Lincoln team.Thanks so much.We'll talk to you again soon.

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