Trump’s Effect on Indian Economy, Investment Opportunities & US vs India |Saurabh |FO454 Raj Shamani

Why is the US making a skateboard in India? Why not China? China has leverage. China has said that they have rare earths. If you mess with us, you won't have a battery, you won't have an EV,

you won't have chips, you'll have a tight affix. Every time a revolution comes, it's skewed economics. 4-5 large companies, conglomerates that are bringing a revolution,

they benefit, The conglomerates and the revolutions are benefiting from it. Everything else is taken down. All the IP is with America. We are just sitting here and using it. So, what could be the result? We become users of their technology. We have to pay them for it. And because they are monopoly suppliers of tech to us,

they can destroy us. This has happened for the first time in the history of the world. 50-55% of the world's profit and cash flow is coming from one country. There are 5 companies in America and each of them individually is bigger than the Indian stock market.

A normal person like me and a lot of my viewers will feel that inflation will increase for us. The cost of living is rising. It's doubling every 6-7 years it's doubling. Exactly. And unfortunately salaries are not growing that fast.

So what's happened over the last couple of years and I think it will increase in 2026 people will take loans to live the good life. I was looking at data that the data on buy now pay later has seen a significant rise this year

on concert ticket buying. So, Gen Z is taking a loan to buy a concert ticket. The data shows that...

It's not working.

The data shows that 40% of people are paying EMIs. What's happening in gold and silver? The people who run central banks around the world are also realizing that there is a huge problem. And therefore, several countries are taking country's wealth and they are buying gold with that.

And that is jacking up the price of gold.

Now the AIs.

This is a huge boon for the West. Especially for Europe. What was Europe's weakness? Europe didn't have enough people. So they will make world leading companies using AI. Unfortunately, our story is going to be the opposite.

We had only one thing, many young people. But AI is going to make it very difficult for them to get jobs. When you talk about all of this, an average person living in this country, the taxpayer who is earning money, where is he earning money? Everything seems to be breaking Yes, so...

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similarly, it matters in the big financial decisions of life. With this clarity and long-term thinking, our guest today is Saurabh Mukherjee, founder of Marcellus Investment Managers and one of the most influential long-term equity investors.

We will learn from him about the money trends of 2026, where the money and the market are heading, what will be the global impact of the US politics and Trump's factor, what is the situation of India's economy, the changing patterns of Gen Z and Gig Money? What will be the impact of air pollution and politics in the coming years? And in simple words, what are the 26 insights for 2026 that you and I should pay attention to? And because of which your and my money can increase or decrease. Or we should be careful about our money.

Talk about those insights and predictions with Saurabh Mukherjee. Enjoy this episode till the end. I want to know that it is 2026. I want to know about 26 predictions, insights, sort of, or what is going on in the country or in the world, I have to make sense accordingly so that I am prepared

to enter 2026 in a way that I know where the money is going to be made, where it is going to go down or how to think about my money so that I can increase it. That's all. That's my whole intention of this podcast. I want to understand what's going on in the world. We will try. We will try. You have given a very demanding brief.

I have to say,

I have to help Raj Shabani in making money. I think, at one level, I feel that I have no importance in such things. But we will try. We will try to make it interesting as well because, look, I mean, to be honest, we don't know what will happen in a year, what will happen tomorrow morning. But what we are able to do, right, and this was the interesting aspect of what I did with

you when I did the first podcast a year ago, right, when I said that Trump will ruin India. I remember saying this to you in Jan 25. And when I told other people in Jan 25 that Trump will ruin India, people said no, no, Trump will be India's best friend. We will be friends. The two countries will rise to greater heights together.

But somehow that didn't resonate with me and therefore I made that counter consensus call that Trump will ruin India. So, I will try to make a few more counter consensus calls today. What is the risk in this? Your hands will look like a complete fool. But I think, I have made a deal with him in a very small way.

If you want to do something meaningful in life, you have to run the risk of looking like a complete fool. And we are not going to worry too much about that. We will just try to think about the world differently from what the conventional point of view on India is or the Indian economy is. Perfect. Done. So, tell me the first point.

What's the first thing that we should know? So, I will break up my point of view for the year ahead into broadly four categories. In each one, we will try to tease out some 5 to 10 predictions. Four categories? Yes. The first category will be Trump and America.

Trump and America will be our first big category. Okay. We will try to make 5-10 predictions in that. The second category would be obviously Indian economy. What is happening in our country in economy? It is a very rich subject.

We will try to make 5-10 predictions from that. The third category is sports. Sports not just because people like sports, but I think sports is a very good mirror for what's happening in a society. Interesting. So, it's a very good reflection because I understand sports and I think your viewers

are also clued into sports. That's a very fertile area. Now, because I am not a sports professional, I won't be able to give more than 5 predictions but it's an interesting area. And last subject, I think it will be a very hot subject as the year goes on, will be pollution. Pollution is a very hot subject in India.

We are doing this podcast in winter. And I think the interplay of pollution and politics will be very strong. Pollution and politics. Yes, it will be very strong because as already pollution and politics are becoming a close relationship. Intertwined.

Yes, intertwined. It's intertwined. So, we will make 4-5 predictions in that. Hopefully, if we do all this, your predictions for 2026 will be made for Rajshamani. So, let's start. And I will cross question a lot in between.

I will ask more why-why.

Drive as much as you want. I will go deeper in this. So, let's start with the thing which is happening in America. So I think to understand what's happening in America, and I think it's important to understand what's happening in America because it's the most powerful country in the world. And by the way, this is the first time in history, Raj,

where a country is earning the majority profit of the world. This is the first time in the history of the world. America now accounts for the majority of the world's profits, corporate profits and corporate cash flow. So, it is important to understand. What is the percentage of the world's?

Now, 50 to 55 percent of the world's profit and cash flow is coming from one country. 70 percent market cap, just to put things in context, India has a 4% market cap, America has 70%. And just to put it in context, America has 5 companies, each of them individually is bigger than the Indian stock market. Like Microsoft by itself is bigger than the Indian stock market. And just to put it further in context, India's stock market profit compounding over 5, 10, 15, 20 years,

take any horizon, India's stock market profit compounding is around 5.5%, 5.5% in dollars. Microsoft compounds, remember Microsoft is bigger than the Indian market, Microsoft compounds profits at 17%. So, it is bigger than India's market is bigger and three times faster. So, we will come back to the economics aspect in a bit. But just to focus back on the what is happening. I think three very important people to understand in America.

Peter Thiel, his disciple J.D. Vance and Peter Thiel's guru Rene Girard. So Rene Girard, I think he is a French philosopher who was teaching in California for 30 years or so. He passed away in 2012. But his philosophy is very influential. You and I can understand that philosophy by reading it and its impact

on the theil and Vance and therefore, we can understand American politics. So, Girard's philosophy, René Girard's philosophy is something around mimetic desire. So, what mimetic desire says is that all people in the world want the same things. So, for example, we all want a nice flat in Bombay, right? Say, like on Peddar Road or Alt Mount Road, we want a luxurious flat. Because all of us want the same 5-10 things, we end up fighting for them, right? So, it's called mimetic desire because our desires mimic each other.

It would be very rare that Raj Shamani will want something which is very different from other people. It would be very rare that Saurabh Mukherjee gets an original desire. Saurabh's desires will be the same as the other people's desires. And as a result, because we all want the same things, we fight for them. We see, we aspire, we desire. And once we desire the same things as other people,

naturally, it is inevitable that there will be a fight. The smart leader, and this was the Gerard Kitab. Gerard Kitab is a very powerful book. Things Unknown Since the Beginning of the World. It is a very powerful book. Things Unknown Since the Beginning of the World. It is a book about electricity.

And there are simplified versions of it. But in Things Unknown, he explained this philosophy for the first time. There are simplified versions. There is a book called Wanting. W-A-N-T-I-N-G. Wanting. There are simplified versions. There's a book called Wanting, W-A-N-T-I-N-G, Wanting,

where Girard's philosophy is simplified. And there are even comic book versions of Girard's philosophy. Sorry, kids understand it. But core philosophies, we all want the same thing. Because we want the same thing,

we're gonna fight with each other for it, right? Whether it's in a company, in a sports team, in a city, in a country or in the world as a whole. The philosophy works at all different levels of aggregation. The guy who becomes the leader, the guy who calls the shots is the guy who turns to the public and says, you guys are fighting. It's not your fault.

Your desires are not mimetic. It's not your fault. It's the fault of that person over there. The dude over there, he's the scapegoat. If we sacrifice him, then everything will be fine. So, we just have to hang him.

Everything will sort itself out. Now, it's obviously a lie. But the successful leader tells this lie with such conviction and such clarity. And makes such a story that the public thinks that he will have to either surgeon a tequila. He enemy is called how enemy war is called. So we have to say, so we literally is called a scapegoat

because he has a scapegoat. Jesus Christ was the first scapegoat. So, Jews were fighting each other. The king of Jews said, put Jesus Christ on the cross. Everything will be fine. So, they put him on the cross. And thus he became the scapegoat.

And it happens in corporate life too. A company's share price is going down. Profits are going down. The CEO is the dude. He has to be sacked. If you just sack him, it will be all good. Yeah, cricket team performing already, right? I don't think any of us are playing test cricket. But if

we are not performing, it will be the coach's fault. All we need to do is sack the coach. It will all be good. Okay? So, that's how every society works, right? So, at a political level, Gerard said politicians realized very early on, 100 years ago, that when people are fighting in any country, find some minority community, scapegoat them, say because of them, you are facing a problem in your life, put them on the pole, minority community.

Just think of Hitler and what he did to the Jews. Put them on the pole and your life will be sorted. Right? So this is the philosophy of Girard. Peter Thiel deeply influenced by it. Right?

He has said it in his books, he has said it publicly. And J.D. Vance in turn, deeply influenced by Peter Thiel. This thought of mimetic desire and the scapegoat, I think, the US government, the ruling government of America, has it all in its mind. So, their scapegoat is the Indian community.

Right?

Their scapegoat is the Indian community, both in the sense of the Indian community which lives in America and I think India as a country. Whose thought process is this? Right? So, now you have given the hint. Now all I need to do is tell you that if this thought, Peter Thiel, Peter Thiel is an influential man in America, J.D. Vance is the vice president and they are disciples

of Girard. So, if they are disciples of Girard, then mimetic desire and mimetic philosophy is embedded in their mind. Now, we just have to identify who they have to make a scapegoat. They have to make a scapegoat because everyone is educated and has said so much about Girard. I think, my hypothesis over the last year of watching Trump and the Republicans do their thing is they have identified that they make a scapegoat for the Indian community.

Because you want the scapegoat to be someone who's highly visible and successful but politically weak. Okay, our community in the US and we could argue generally India as a country and specifically the Indian immigrant diaspora in America, very successful, the most successful immigrant community in America, richest, best qualified, high profile CEOs, and a well-known story. But politically, we are irrelevant.

African-Americans are not irrelevant. Hispanics are not irrelevant. In fact, African-Americans plus Hispanics are almost half the American voter base. So, it's not safe to follow them. Whereas, if you follow Indians, what will they do?

They don't have a place in the ballot box in America. So, slap them twice a week. What will happen with this? Your right wing voter base will say, I enjoyed it, sir. You showed them their status. And with low cost to yourself as a political leader, you just humiliate this community once or twice a week. You can take out any issue, you can talk about H1B, you can comment on some sites that these people come from far off places and take jobs from there. You can humiliate them in free

trade negotiations. You can leak in the media that their big people are coming here, we don't even meet them. Right? And it's easy votes, easy opinion polls, popularity rankings. And important thing, in 2026, mid-term polls in America. I think mid-term polls in November. I think as we go towards the mid-term polls, Indian community's ostracization and India ki, I know that two separate aspects, but I think the people are in America seeing them as two separate constituencies joined at the hip. India is a country and the Indian community is in America. And both I think are source of easy popularity and votes for the right wing folks over there. Right? So, leaving

aside, leaving that aside, I think if the right wins in the midterm. At the moment, the hope that many Indians have is. And therefore, they are saying, you know, law and order will return to America, sanity will return and, you know, we are betting on America in the long run. That's what many of the diaspora folks are saying over there. But if that doesn't happen, if the Republicans win big in the mid-terms, right Republicans win big. Right? And my hunch is they will ramp up the ostracization of our community in going into the midterms. If they win big, then I think a lot of

the, a lot of our friends and relatives and more generally the liberal elite in America will try to leave the US and go to other places. Because they will say, this new paradigm is being established well, we are here and there is no place left. So, my first call is that the ostracization of people like us will increase, of our community in the US, of India. Right, ostracization of India and Indian community will increase. Link to that free trade agreement, it will be difficult to sign a successful FTA in our Indian view. But linked to that is my call that if the Republicans win at the midterms, they do well in the midterms,

I think by the end of 2026, at the beginning of 2027, a lot of the top talent, the Indian talent will seek other homes. There is an opportunity in that. Hopefully, our country, India itself will be able to attract some of the brightest minds. But I think the Europeans, even the Chinese will say, come to us, we will give you a new place. But you wanted to talk on this point more?

No, you go on. So, why is America making a scapegoat for India? Why not China?

China is much bigger...

Yes, China has leverage. See, what China has said is that we have rare earth. If you mess with us, we will cut your rare earth. We will cut your rare earth. Neither your battery will be made, your electric battery will be made, nor your EV will be made, nor your chips will be made.

Your entire tie-dye will be fizzed. Right? China took it very bluntly, somewhere around July-August, China basically told the Americans, don't mess around beyond a point, we will cut your rare earth. We don't have that kind of leverage, us as a country. And if you're going back again to the Indian community in America, you'll notice, the whole mouth is closed. No sound is coming out.

As we get all of this invectives, you know, colored invective coming from powerful people in America, our community, Indian community in America, is not making a sound. In fact, back home, Shashi Tharoor of the world has written, what's happening, boss? You are sitting in America, you are Indians of high stature, you are great wealth or powerful office, why are they not making any noise? And naturally, they are not making any noise because they are scared. That they will be cut off first.

Yes, they will be cut off, which will serve the scapegoat purpose to the D. So, I think he has thought very cleverly. And that's why I started by saying, keep an eye on Peter Thiel. He is a key influencer here. He is low profile. He is behind the scenes. He has a lot of brains. If anyone wants to know how solid is Thiel's brain, read 0 to 1.

0 to 1 is an outstanding book. And Thiel is a strategist of enormous capability. Palantir, by the way, his company has gone through a stock rocket. Unfortunately, we couldn't buy Palantir in Global Compounders. But Thiel is special. Thiel is the thinker.

And I think we are unfortunately the targets. Our community is the target in America. But coming back to predictions, I think leaving aside ostracization, free trade agreement, I think there is another aspect to it. I think China can also see. China can also see that we are cornered as a community and as a kind of country.

China can see, they have rare earth, so it is difficult for America to mess with them. China can see, they don't have anything. They have population, but during the era of AI, there is no need for population. Before AI came along, having a lot of people was an important thing. But with AI, China is realizing that they don't have any cards. So my third thought is that China will also take advantage in 2026.

I don't understand how it will take advantage. Will it create a problem in the border? Or will it pressurize us in some trade deal? Or will it keep pressur pressing us in rare earth. China will also say that we also want to take advantage of this. You will notice that every 2-3 weeks China will do something which will be a nudge in the ribs.

So, 2-3 weeks ago they did not give a visa to a lady from Nagaland or Arunachal Pradesh. Because they claim to some of our states. Then much like Trump, China is also saying, we did the boss broker, Operation Sindoorwala Peace.

We did the broker.

When Trump was saying, now China is saying, we were also doing the broker. Right. So, I think these people are watching us through their ribbons, what is the ability to come back. And if they realize that, much as the Americans have realized,

if they realize that we don't have leaves, they will also do something to... They will try to take benefit. Yes, they will try to take benefit. Because, you know, as we have all realized, it's a dog-eat-dog world now. There is no global trade agreement.

Every country is trying to break their trade agreement. Every country is trying to show their muscle. So, in that context, the way America is treating us, obviously the whole world is watching. And the Chinese, I don't think have any love lost for us. And therefore, they will do something or the other in 26 to make their cover bigger. First insight is America will target more the Indian community. Second insight is, prediction

is that China will take advantage of this. Yes. And along with this, the third insight is that the FTA that we are trying to negotiate with America, that FTA will be signed only when America feels that they have squeezed us well. Right? We are thinking that we will sign a good FTA which will be fair. We will get something, they will get something. Right. But if I look at it from their leadership's perspective, they are saying, we just need popularity. It's not as if signing a great FTA of America will change the fortunes

of the American economy. But it is a very good source of populist votes for us. It plays really well with the white electorate that we are white electorate. Right? And if we sign and if they sign an agreement with us and our press exalts and our leadership exalts, they are saying, what is the use of it? Right? So, financially, they do not know anything. It is an easy source of popularity and votes for them. So, this is quite tragic, this game that is going on. But my reading is they will not sign the FTA until they believe they got a deal which they can jump up and down and show their electorate.

See, how we showed them, we taught them a lesson. Right? Because that's what it's now become. It's not less about, you know, we will earn 1-2 billion dollars, 5 billion dollars, it's irrelevant for them. It's about how we show our electorate that we have shown them our place. And this aspect, I again stress, to understand how this whole political philosophy works. Peter Thiel studied, more importantly, René Girard studied and things unknown since the beginning of the world.

Then let's move ahead. If we are discussing all these things in Rajapur in 2026, then the private equity funds around the world, will know 10x better than I am saying. So, their only job in Mumbai after coming to office is to sell goods. Sell your stakes in India and take money out of the country.

Valuations in our country are rich. Valuations are rich 30, 40, 50 times forward P.E. So, foreign P.E. will say, by the way, 85% of P.E. and VC money in India is foreign money, primarily American money. So, when it comes to selling goods on IPO, most of the money is of foreigners. There is no deal to sell more of our Indians in IPO. So, the foreign PE houses will keep flogging stakes at IPO or post listing and keep taking money out of the country. Now, if the foreign PEs are doing this every day, our promoters will say,

man, why am I sitting here? So, our promoter population will also be in the range valuation. Already we have done it in 2025. We will continue this story in 2026. So, the current account deficit was the same. Since I was born, the current account deficit because for example, the mic we are using for this podcast, your and my phones, right, much of the electronics, all the electronics to record the podcast, everything is imported. Right. So, current account deficit, easy to understand.

Historically, we had a capital account surplus. Foreigners used to put money in our country. And that used to balance the balance of payments. Now, there is a current account capital account is also in deficit. Because foreign and Indian promoters are taking money out. The foreign PE is sending the money back to their funds in New York or California. And the Indian promoters are taking their money out to set up family offices in Dubai or Singapore. So, my next prediction is foreign PE

and Indian promoters carry on selling. Okay. Logically, another prediction flows from that that rupee will keep falling. Right. Until we sign FTA, rupee will keep falling. FTA, as I said, I think they will not sign, American people, FTA. Until they think that cheap popularity can be achieved, their midterms are coming,

good chance to earn cheap popularity. So, it seems logical to me that the rupee will run towards 100. Now, in 2026, it will come 100 or in 2027, I will not be able to say, but it seems logical to go down, right? And if you want to draw a positive out of this, then Dubai and Singapore will become frequent visits for us, just like Bombay, Delhi and Bangalore.

Right? Because Dubai and Singapore will have such a large Indian population, promoters' family offices will be there, that a person like me, now there is already pressure to go every week, I am a little lazy, that's why I avoid it, I try to go once a month, because I wake up a little in the morning and go to Dubai or Singapore, and come in the evening, Now I'm also getting old.

But itne raftar se bada paisa jaa raha hai, inn dono shahar ki, Bombay, Delhi, Bangalore, jitna hi Indian city hai, Dubai-Singapore, utna hi Indian city ban jayega. Mere khayal se aapke bhi kaafi increasingly podcast guests And in a way, both of these geographies, right, the UAE rulers and the Singaporean rulers,

they are getting it. They are also smart people. They are realizing that rich Indians need a good place to live, a safe banking system. And they are saying, educated, smart, wealthy people, welcome them. And I think both Singapore and Dubai, especially Dubai, the whole red carpet that has been rolled out, it's good to see. At a time when we are discussing how America is

treating our country, it's good to see how the Dubai rulers are very smartly, Dubai and Abu Dhabi, they are rolling out the red carpet for us. And increasingly, even startup founders I'm seeing in India, who are not billionaires, maybe 1-2-5 million dollar people, they are also running their business in India by staying in Dubai, Abu Dhabi. Now there is a positive side to this. The weaker the rupee, the more benefit our exporters will get.

Not just IT exporters, but I think manufactured goods exporters will also benefit. Given that America has put a 50% tariff on textiles, leather goods, sports goods, gems and jewelry. I think a weaker rupee will help Indian manufacturers make headway in the rest of the world. So India is making FTA with some countries in the Middle East, New Zealand, Europe, FTA is being made. So, light industrial exports, auto ancillaries, pumps, air compressors, these kinds of things, I think, with a cheaper rupee will do well. I think even IT services and we will come to, I think, there is a new type of gig job which will come to India, I think,

over the next two, three years, where the Indian gig worker will be based in India but he will be gigging for the whole world. So, for such a person, cheaper rupees is a good thing because it will make him more competitive, will make her more competitive in the global gig market and the dollar that she will earn or will earn in the global gig market, will give them more rupees. So, this rebalancingancing the Indian economy from a currency which was arguably overvalued till a year ago, I think 80-85 I think rupee was

overvalued to say rupee at closer to 100, the rupee will be fairly valued. Exporters, whether it is large IT companies. Or agriculture, export, exports and from top to bottom. And gig worker, I think this gig worker piece will become a big deal. We will discuss it later on. The individual gig worker who is doing gig in Mulund, Malad or Koramangala, there will be a good competitive advantage for him that our currency is cheap,

competitive and we will come back to that later. But in our country, inflation will not increase. Inflation will not face inflation. Inflation will increase but inflation in a way, so you think about it right, if the rupee is overvalued, the foreign goods are cheaper than they should be and the domestic industry suffers because they cannot compete with a, anyway it is hard for domestic industry to

compete with China. But an overvalued rupee exacerbates the problem. As it is, Chinese stuff is super competitive. On top of that, currency overvalued becomes cheaper. So, there's no way on God's earth you can make a phone in India to compete with a Chinese phone without PLI.

Now, how much PLI will you distribute? Beyond a point, production lending centers, the Indian government has finite money. So you can't build an economy on the back of PLI. But in a short term for this, a normal person like me and a lot of my viewers, the cost will increase for us. Yes, so I think if I were to say, your and my and your viewers' cost of living is rising every 6 to 7 years, it is doubling.

Exactly. Right. In every 5 years, the cost of living doubles. Yes. So, and unfortunately salaries are not growing that fast. So, that gives me a good segue into the economics part of it.

Let's segue into economics. What I have been seeing for the last 5-6 years, when we crunch the salary data of companies in Marsalis, we see that the salaries are increasing by 5-6% every year. Cost of living is increasing by 8-9% easily, which is why it's a rule of 72. If we assume that the cost of living is increasing by 9%, Every 8 years, cost of living is doubling. I suspect

actually the number, cost of living inflation might even be close to 10%. So, health care, open heart surgery, hernia, if there is a proper operation in any hospital, annual cost is increasing by 10 to 15%. Air transport, right? Now got to see the whole fiasco around Indigo. Everyone is aware of it. But even before that fiasco, cost of traveling between Indian big cities was doubling every 7-8 years, right? Education, if a child has to be sent to a good school or sent abroad,

cost was rising at 8-9% every year. So, middle class cost of living, suppose, is growing 8-10%, salaries were not growing that fast. So, economists say that in real terms, salary was decreasing. Means, your salary is increasing at this rate, cost of living is decreasing at this rate. So, on average, our estimate is salaries are shrinking in real terms at 4% a year. So, I think that story will be there in 2026. As you rightly said, if the currency will go down, which I think it will, the cost of

living, inflation will increase. And I don't think, you know, someone can go to the employer and say, sir, rupee has depreciated. You increase my pay rise accordingly. I am hoping certainly people in Mansaras will not come and tell me that Saurabh, rupee has depreciated, increase my pay rise accordingly. If they say, I will have to come up with an answer. Cover the delta of 4%

So I am hoping our office people are not watching this podcast. Or they should talk after the pay review. Anyway, coming back to the more serious point. As cost of living rises faster than inflation, which means in real terms, the salary is decreasing. People have to lead such a glamorous lifestyle.

Because everyone is seeing on social media that Raj Shamani is going to London to meet big people. Why are we sitting here and eating golgappa? We also have to go to London, Dubai. So, everybody now wants to live the good life. It doesn't matter whether their salary is shrinking or not.

They are saying we have to lead a good life. So what's happened over the last couple of years and I think it will go further in 2026, people will take loans to live the good life. So, the data of personal loans shows that the most common use of personal loans is to buy a phone. Second most is to go on holiday. So, second most common use of personal loans is to go on holiday. Right. So second most user personal, second most common user personal loans is to go on holiday. This type of user personal loans to live the good life, I think

will balloon more. Right. I was looking at data this morning that buy now pay later data has had a significant rise this year on concert ticket buying. Okay. Wow. So Gen Z is taking loan, taking credit so that he can go to a concert. So what you are saying is right. Good life is needed even at the cost of personal loan. Now, someday the day of reckoning will come because unless you listen to Coldplay's concert as much as you want, right? Unless Chris Martin is going to come and pay your personal loan,

you will have to get money from somewhere. And if your boss is saying, boss, I can't do anything, your rupee is going down, your real salary is going down. So, I think the defaults will be a big problem. I am already getting the news that there is a problem of defaults. Banks and lenders are trying to keep the numbers clean by doing a lot of numbers here and there. But I think the situation is getting tough.

So I think the situation of defaults will increase. But don't you think that when, especially the trend in Gen Z, when you want a good life, you want that you can show off and live a good life. Because you are seeing someone on social media that he is good, I also want the same life. Doesn't matter if my salary is increasing or not. Because of this you take loans, right? That's one trend.

The other trend is which I see selective slurging. So what is happening in that is people, they are reducing their big buys but accumulating that money to do the small buys. For example, if you ask a young person, he is collecting money and saying that even if I don't go in a good car, I will take Uber, I will sit in Uber and go in a taxi, but I will go to VIP in concert. So that money they are saving, which maybe goes to their EMI on bike or car, and they are using that money to go to these things.

So they are spending selectively. So let's use this to tease out one or two more predictions. So the data I am getting, the data I am seeing, in 2025, purchase of homes already 10-15% se count is down. Count of home purchase, right? And remarkable thing is, last 5-6 saal mein, even as personal indebtedness has blasted through the roof, we are the most indebted

middle class in the world if you leave aside home loans. Interestingly, home loans as a percentage of income utna bada nah that big. And as I am saying, the data I am seeing that in big cities, count of properties purchased in 2025 is already 10-15% down. I think in 2026 it will increase even more. People are going to say, leave this house. Let's live the good life right now. Let's live on rent. Let's take a VIP ticket and go to Mauritius on a holiday with a personal loan.

Now this is even more deadly because if you have bought a house, you have some asset, you don't have to pay rent in an expensive city like Bombay, Bangalore, Delhi. But if you have an asset, you got something to show the lender when he comes knocking. But if you have taken a VIP ticket for a concert with a loan, then I don't know what you will show, boss. You can't give the ticket to the lender when he will tell you,

put the cash. You can't say, look, I have a VIP ticket for Coldplay. Believe me, I had a lot of fun listening to the song. So this piece, I think, is going to be more deadly. But it doesn't mean that as a young person, if he doesn't have the load of paying the EMI of the house, then the salary that is coming every month, that salary can be used

to repay the lifestyle that he or she is living. So, the data is showing that 40% of the people are paying EMIs. So, I don't understand how others will live on their salary. And remember, the screw is tightening every year. This was the fifth year in 2025, where the real salary shrank. It will be the sixth year.

So, people will start breaking slowly. I mean, they will break from time to time and from us. It is not moving. Screw this. I am just going to default on the whole bloody thing. Right.

What is happening till now? The parcel is being passed. A lender is harassing you. You said, let me pay him by taking money from him. Right. And that lead to my next prediction, RBI will keep cutting rates. They have no choice.

I think RBI will have to cut another 100 bips in 2026 to keep the party rolling. Right. Our central bank will print a lot of notes. Economists call it monetizing. It will cut rates so that lenders can keep passing the parcel. Jis din, hum jab bachhe the na log ke happy birthday mein jaate the, there used to be this game where wo parcel ghoomti thi, music chalta tha.

Ball pass karte tha. Haan. And then the moment the music was off, jiski haath mein parcel hoti thi, wo out ho jata tha. Theek hai. Toh yaha pe music chalara hai RBI is playing music and all the lenders are passing the parcel.

And they are all hoping that the music will continue to play. Which also links back to the weaker rupee. RBI will keep cutting rates, keep printing notes, monetary easing. So that lenders can, borrowers can say that this lender is harassing me. I will pay him back with the money. Now after 90 days he will start harassing me. But I will rest for it and after 90 days he will start harassing me.

But I will rest for 90 days and I will get a VIP ticket for a concert. And RBI has to keep this game rolling for which they need lower rates. So rates will go down, currency therefore weakens from a monetary aspect as well. So there was a Trump dimension on currency, FTA, which is to take out foreign investors' money, this is the monetary dimension, right? Linked to this, then another prediction I will make is, I think, India government again needs to take another round of income tax cuts.

Nirmala Ji did it right in Feb 25. She made personal income taxes, she made it zero till 12 lakhs of income. I think in 2026, the budget that will come on 1st February, 26th, there will be a need for that again. If for some reason, on 1st Feb, 26th, personal income tax relief is not announced, I suspect midway through the year, it will be necessary to do it.

Why?

Because people do not have disposable income to pay the tax.

So, you have to give relief. Because people do not have disposable income to pay the interest.

So, you have to give relief. Remember, effectively the employer is saying, I cannot take more money. So, the employee is turning to the Indian government and saying, sir, you only do something for us. So, as I said, I think the government did the right thing in Feb 25 by cutting income tax. I think the government did the right thing in October 25 by cutting GST. I think again, there will be a in October 25 by cutting GST. I think

first say or a ground of tax cuts. If for some reason first Feb 26 tax cuts, then I think somewhere halfway through the year, we expedite. And this then leads to my point that lower rates, lower interest rates, lower tax rates, falling real wages, rising defaults, and all of this suggests to me, a big lender, at least one big lender will run into trouble in 26. At least one big lender and RBI will orchestrate a rescue I am sure. Tagda Central Bank and they are on top of this, right? Whatever it is that I am telling you, the research that

I read from the RBI, their financial stability review comes in which it is clearly seen that they are understanding that the water has come up and I think they will have to orchestrate at least one. Okay. One rescue, right? So, this prediction is someone's going to get it. Yes, someone's going to get it. In a way, some people have already got it. The foreign investor has been brought there. The foreign

investor has put some money. But the foreign investor has understood that more money is needed. He thought it will be done with 1 billion dollars. It seems like 2-3 billion will have to be put in because that one lender is also under stress. But I think fresh stress, fresh stress will get created in the financial system. And I think the RBI is doing the right thing. They are doing all the right things. They are cutting the rates.

They are putting the money market of Bombay out of money. Now linked to this, right. The investors sitting in our country, Dubai, Singapore, family offices, they can also see all this. They will say, what are we doing here?

What are we investing here? Let's swing increasingly to investing in Europe, America, East Asia. Right? Because there, as I said,

earnings growth in Europe, America, East Asia, earnings growth is anywhere between 2, East Asia, earnings growth is anywhere between 2 to 3x out of India. And prevalent valuations are 30-40% cheaper than India. Right?

So, in US, in Europe, you get a company that gives 14-15% dollar EPS growth at 15-16-17. I mean, obviously, if you want to go and buy Nvidia, it's not going to be cheap. But leaving aside Nvidia, leaving aside the glamour stocks, 5, 10, 15, 20 billion dollar market cap, which is called small and mid cap in the western world, there are cheap things available. Growing fast, world leading positions, cheap valuation. And increasingly, I think the social circuit, cocktail party circuit, where discussion will turn to foreign stock portfolio.

How is your portfolio doing today? Foreign stock portfolio is an old story. We discuss foreign stocks. So, if we meet again after a year, the discussion will be how much money is made in which foreign stock. How much money is made. Leave the domestic, the story will be, how much money is made in which foreign stock.

Leave the domestic, the story is clear in domestic. Private equity or promoter spits out the goods and sends foreign money. Let's talk about foreign, which 5-10 billion dollar stock did you get in Sweden, Germany, Holland, France, which the public did not know about. And then taking this one step further, let's get into AI. I think the impact of AI will be there in 2026.

We are all cognizant of AI, but I don't think we fully understand the practical impact. We do a few search words, a few chat GPT, but the commercial impact will be seen in 2026. This is a big boon for the West. Right? Especially for Europe. What was Europe's weakness?

Europe didn't have enough people. Right? Everyone became old there. But AI completely mitigates that issue. Right? So, the Western economies, European economies had great education systems, but their demographics were screwed. That gets taken care of by AI. Right? So,

I think we will see a renaissance of places like Germany, Sweden, Holland, France, UK. AI ke istamaal se world leading companies banayenge. Right? And bahut interesting hain aap. Pachaa, so bright logon se, 50, 100 bright people sitting in any of these countries, sitting anywhere in the world. 50, 100 bright people can now build a multi-billion dollar empire. Right? That's the power of AI. Yeh Europe isko poora harness karega mere khayal se. Right? Hamare liye is reversed. We had only one thing. There were a lot of young people. But AI is going to make it very difficult for them to get jobs.

So, the jobs data in India, I analyze white collar jobs data. It is already visible that jobs are shrinking in 2024-2025. I think this will increase in 2026. Because employers are telling me that if we have to spend on AI, say we are paying Microsoft for Open AI or Microsoft for Copilot, plus we now have to train our bots. So, we will spend on that, we will spend on staff too. We will not spend twice. So, if we have to spend on AI, then we have to save somewhere. So, we remove people. So, Niti Aayog, Niti Aayog published a good report in October 25. Niti

Aayog with NASCOM, which is the trade body of the tech industry, NBCG, which is Jani Mani Management Consultancy. So, they published a report saying that by 2021, around one-fifth of jobs in IT and what they call customer experience, means jobs like call center, one-fifth of jobs are going to be at risk. So, leave their story, what will they do, including my children's generation. But the incumbents will face a problem. This again feeds back into wage pressure.

Right? Every year, there are about 1 crore new graduates coming into the system. So, they are increasing. They can't get jobs. The incumbents are getting laid off. So, wage pressure will be heavy. And

employers will obviously be cognizant of this and the smart employers are already laying off workers by their tens of thousands quietly and replacing them with AI. So, AI is, in the awareness of economists, AI is what is called an adverse supply-side shock. AI has put pressure on India. So, AI has two aspects. Any new technology has two aspects. First aspect is substitution effect. So, when electric light bulb came in 1890, substitution effect was a thank you to the candle maker. So, for now, for 2026, we will deal with the substitution effect of AI.

Right. But next story, the good story, the good story will be the complementarity effect. So, going back to electricity, the candle maker's thank you, it gets burst. Substitution effect gets burst. Right. That's the effect I've spoken about so far for AI. Complementarity effect is the new technology allows you to do things you could never imagine. So, because of electricity, Hollywood came, gramophone came, pop star became, rock star became, right? But it takes

a little time to happen. Right? Hollywood was made in 1920s. Electric light bulb came in 1890. Hollywood came after 30 years. Now I don't think it's going to take 30 years for AI's complementarity effects to come in. I think 2027-28 is going to be the year where the complementarities kick in. Right? And a lot of that complementarity will be around creating potentially as many as 100

million gig jobs around Indians sitting at home, creating data sets, clean data sets on which bots can be trained on around the world, right? So, let's say there is a hospital chain in Latvia which wants to automate its customer call center. They don't want human beings. I think there is not much population in Latvia.

They don't want human beings. I think Latvian is not a big population. They don't want human beings. They want a bot to deal with all the customer queries, complaints, etc. So, they'll give 10 years worth of call records to some dude sitting in home in Madurai or Tirunelveli or Pune. And that guy will organize the whole data, label it. And then he will probably give it to some other guy who is a bot trainer. He will train the Latvian bot on that data. That now this bot will handle all the questions and answers of the hospital. So, I think AI's LLMs will come from America.

The LLMs are now well known. Some might come from China. But the actual work on LLMs will be done by our country. Because we are going to be the cheapest. Remember, this is why the currency cheaper is helpful. You are going to be the cheapest, most competitive people. And I don't think this will require you to work out of some big office in Hinjewadi or Bangalore ORR or Gurgaon.

You will sit at home and do this work. And there'll be new companies that will be born in India who will coordinate these gig workers. Okay. Right. So, the big IT firms are laying off people already.

Some of them have made it publicly clear that we will get half the people to do double work. So they lay off lots of people. Many of those people plus a lot of youngsters will find work sitting at home doing gig work in a global market. And that will become a new story. I am not able to understand the full contours of it.

But as far as I understand, you know, I don't think a Wall Street bank will be hiring a big Indian IT services firm to use ChatGPT. They will hire a smaller Indian firm who will then subcontract to gig workers sitting at home. So, it's a big change. The world that I grew up in, that you will study, write, get a good score in the exam, then you will get a job in a big company,

you will get training, you will get promotion, you will get appraisal, you will get pay rise. That story is over. That story is completely over. My children's life will not be that. My children's life will be this world of geek. Now, what is very interesting in this is that small companies will be able to create colossal empires.

And I think India's rebirth will be around this story. So, just to give a sense of scale, TCS has I think 6 lakh people. 6 lakh people work for TCS. India's largest IT services company, the world's second largest.

Accenture, I think, has 4-5 lakh people. Microsoft has 2 lakh people, I think.

Right? Open AI, I think, has 2000. And DeepSeek has 200. Okay? So, broadly the same industry, no? DeepSeek 200. TCS 6 lakh. Right? And I think this thing will be there in every industry. And this is very important for your industry as well. You are young. I don't think having lots of people in figuring out is going to be

the key driver to absolute success. It will be about how you harness your talent, your IP, how you harness technology. And what's incredibly exciting, somewhat scarily exciting for people like us who invest in yesterday's companies is the scale of disruption ahead of us. So, as I said, in Europe, I can see that when I go to Europe, my friends and relatives, whom I know in Europe, they are using it with a lot of pressure. Small, 15,

20, 30 people are making colossal companies on the back of AI because people's needs are completely gone. Right? In India, those who can do it, can reimagine this thing. That the company has to be reimagined, you don't have to go and create gazillion dollars from venture capital. You have to be creative about how you use technology and you have to rethink how technology works to create solutions for people. There, India's renaissance will be re-birth. And as I said, it takes time. First, substitution effect comes, which is what we are living through

in 2026. It will be a big year for the substitution. Complementarity effect, I think, the first substitution effect comes, which is what we are living through in 2026, will be a big year for the substitution. Complementarity effect, I think, is the story of 27 years. In between for India is a big disruption in the conventional job market, linking that to real wage pressure, that VIP concert ticket means lots of useless loans, defaults, ek, ek, at least ek bada lender ka panga, RBI cutting rates, flooding the system with money. Yeh mera 2026 ka chhavi lag raha hai.

Hopefully Bharat Sarkar agar sun rahi hai yeh wali podcast. Agar aap 1st February 26 ko tax cuts kar do, toh maza a jaayega. Tell me one thing in this. Jo aapne baat boli, complementarility. Tell me one thing in this, what you said about complementarity. There is one more thing which is somewhat what you are trying to say is, the second order beneficiaries, if there is a big revolution, the company that brings the infrastructure and brings the revolution, there are more benefits than that.

More monetary wealth creation than that. The people who make their own company on that infrastructure, they do more. So there are second order beneficiaries. For example, when the whole automobile revolution came in America, that everyone bought a car and people started going from one place to another.

So Ford increased by only 23x, but because of that Walmart increased by 1600x. Because it was made after that. Like when Wi-Fi came, the Cisco which prepared the infrastructure, that maybe increased a little bit. But Netflix, which was a second order beneficiary that if everyone had Wi-Fi in their house, that increased by more than 500 times. So there are a lot of second order beneficiary of Netflix, that everyone has Wi-Fi at home, has increased by more than 500 times. So, there are many second order beneficiaries.

So, now AI has an infrastructure. So, now we are all betting on companies like NVIDIA, GPT, OpenAI, Anthropic. They are creating this infrastructure. Do you think that infrastructural companies will win in this world as well? Or will second order think that in this world, infrastructural companies will win? Or will second order beneficiaries win in this world or will the infrastructural world win?

So, let's take it step by step. Let's break AI into three parts. First is the chip story. Today, there is a shortage of NVIDIA chips. Until the shortage is over, NVIDIA's stock price will continue.

But I don't have the strength to buy Nvidia. Because I don't know how long that shortage will continue. But we will need some kind of chip. Because at Marcellus, we don't know which chip will be required. What we are doing is, we are buying the chip making ecosystem. So, we have taken TSMC because all the chips in the world are made from TSMC. So this is the first story. Today there is a shortage of chips. Maybe there will be more shortage in 2026 or maybe a new type of chip will come in 2026. Who knows? But I think TSMC will keep winning. Plus, China's LLM has proved that they have made 2000 chips. Then US LLM 16000.

So they have reduced the difference. So the story of chips to be hard to call. Which chip will win, how much will it cost? That's why I am saying that we should buy the infrastructure to make it. The second is data center. There is a shortage of data centers all over the world.

There is a shortage in India as well. We need more data centers. For this, the circuit breakers in the data center, the entire electrical infrastructure, it has a shortage. So we are buying that.

Data centers are incredibly energy consumptive. So there is a shortage of energy. So that's why we are buying the G1 and G2 gas turbines. So the energy shortage is linked to data center shortage. I think data center will keep on being built because people will keep on spewing data and to train AI.

And data. Now, use any LLM. You will need to train the AI for which you need the data center to house the data and run the training algorithms, right? Now, let's come to the LLMs itself. As far as I can understand there, I think there's probably too many LLMs out there.

And as far as I understand, they are all similar. There might be some differences. My colleagues tell me that Claude is better for writing tasks. Gemini is better for more analytical tasks. There might be some differences in LLMs. But I think there is a difference of 19-20.

There might be a shakeout in LLM, but I think it will be around 19-20. Maybe there will be a shakeout in LLMs, especially if Chinese people also start using LLMs. And there are improvements in DeepSeek. The hype is less, but there are improvements in DeepSeek. So if there is a boom in LLMs, LLMs will be available either for cheap or for free. So that means then companies that use the LLMs cleverly is where the wealth will be created. So, making a national highway network does not make money. The company

that cleverly installs logistics infrastructure on the national highway, it earns. And moreover, the company that makes clever products and uses that infrastructure, they earn. So, these sorts of companies, the companies that will use the LLMs, the LLMs itself I think will be available relatively cheap. The companies that will use the LLMs cleverly will be the winners of the future. Now, I think those companies can come from anywhere in the world. It will be a very competitive market.

And maybe their dominance, unlike my mental model of, you know, like Asian paints dominance, maybe I will not work in mental models and AI age because dominance could be fleeting. Right? So, a Bajaj Finance type company could use proprietary data to reinforce its dominance because they're combining the proprietary data with Microsoft AI. But barring those sorts of exceptional companies who have enormous amounts of proprietary data

to train their robots in a way that nobody else can, the new generation of companies that will come through, they might dominate for two, three, four years and then give way to another wave of companies in the same industry. But I'll still reinforce the electricity example. Electricity bana tha kisi ne socha bhi nahi tha 1890 mein, even 1900 mein ki Hollywood banegi, gramophone banega, rock stars aur film stars banege. Toh AI ka kuch waisa ek play rahega. AI will do things that people like me, especially people like me, non-techies

like me can't even imagine. And those companies will come from anywhere in the world, including small town India. And those companies will come from people who are not writing the LLM. They are simply creating applications which run on the LLMs, perhaps sitting in their bedroom in Chandigarh for all I know. This India's renaissance will be around new gig jobs. The new gig jobs initially will be doing data cleaning, data labeling and bot training for the Western world. But those ecosystems in a company that will come, the superstar companies of the future,

who will hopefully lead India forward into, out of this era of disruption. The era of disruption is profound for us because our business model was that we have a young population who will become educated. But AI is breaking that model.

A new model will be created in 2-3 years. And he'll have to live through that transition.

Interesting.

So, I don't know what will happen now. But something that will become second or third order, he will earn more money. Yes. The one who will start thinking from today that other people will make LLM,

I don't care about that. to dusre log bana ke denge, uspe sar nahi phodta main. Main phodta hoon ki kaunsi cheeze aaj kar nahi paate logon ke liye jo bhavishya mein kar paahe ge. Right? Now, link to this I think will be because AI rote learning aur ratta baazi ko irrelevant bana deta hai. Right? I think 2026 mein bada saar discussion India mein chalo ho jayega ki hamari desh ke education discussion in India will start that the education system of our country, can it really do the job? Because the education system I grew up in and I suspect even though you are much younger, you grew up in, you can regurgitate in 5 years and you will become a hero if you

regurgitate well. Right? So, whether you go to a very elite place, IIT, IIM or not, it doesn't matter. The more your are strong in regurgitation, the more you become a hero in the Indian education system. That system is breaking, right? Because… This system of beating and winning is over.

Right? And it's true across the world, right? So, if you break Ivy League in the US, it's going to make a big difference. Because the employer is very quickly able to figure out, this is Rattu, he doesn't have to give a job even though he is or she is Ivy League. Same in India, right?

When I am interviewing children, I see even though they have elite credentials, their brain actually doesn't work, their curiosity is weak. It just regurgitates the Ratta answers. So, I think education system will have a big debate in India in 2026 that whether it is working or not. Or is it wasting the 21 years of life of children. Right? And then the corporate analog of this will be companies will realize that

this power point game will not achieve anything in life. If you show 50 numbers in your Q3 results call, the market is not going to give a monkey's because market will say, number toh aisi dekh lete, aapko TV pe aake ya earnings call pe aake dene zarurat nahi thi. Company will say, story telling ka head hona chahiye. Aapki quarterly results call ya jab bhi bhi aap kisi TV channel pe aake apne company ke maare baat kar a TV channel. Your ability to market your company, your ability to sell your story to the stock market

or indeed to the customer. You sell soap or sell undergarments, the customer will only connect with you if you are good at storytelling. Storytelling will be a big job. So, I can, by the end of 2026, I think, there will be a head of storytelling. It will be a job in several companies.

Maybe not in all the companies. Some companies will be perhaps due to adapt. But I think presenting a company, whether it be presenting a company to the stock market or presenting a company to your customer base will be fundamentally about storytelling rather than throwing numbers and saying, understand our numbers. Because the world will say, numbers are already given,

AI will eat the numbers. You explain a new way, give us a new way to think about your company. And companies who are good at that, will be brilliant at it. So if I see the world around me,

if I look at say my industry, the finance industry, ZeroDa is brilliant at it. ZeroDa, in the last five years, the way he has made a story that this is our job, we do this for users, this is our varsity, his whole podcast construct. It's I think, it's a narrative, the company and the narrative fuse, right? And this in turn, I think connects to branding, to marketing. Branding, marketing will be increasingly less about how much money you

spent. It will be about how strong your story is. How creative, how imaginative your story is rather than you spent 100 crores or 200 crore, I blew it. True. That's a need that we are seeing it very very obvious. Remember last year I was telling you about this. So this is a service that we run for very like niche of our clients where their entire startup from the founder to the company to the large corporate conglomerates, the billion dollar conglomerates, we are multi-millionaires. So from the MD to the chairman to shareholders to the last person and

where their product is sold and where it will go in the future, what's their thing. We put down and we build this into a proper story and then we build a full year plan that how and where the company can engage and tell its narrative story to people in a much more palatable way. Because today when you finance, the simple word is, that I take your money and increase it.

But now people want to know, okay, what's the whole story around it? How do we trust you more? How is your story better than anyone else? How is it better to increase your money and invest? So we do that. And till two years ago, we had to pitch this to people.

That we do this, come trust us. And this pitch used to go on for 2-3 months. Then we used to do it for someone. In last 8 months, it's like they ask us in the future, Yes, tell me. that you do something, please because you do this, I have heard this.

My friend does this, because how? And at the top, the circle is very well connected to each other. So if someone is XYZ owner or founder, they know each other. And then upfront they are coming to us and be like, okay, can we do something? And before we even say that we make a plan, do something, they are like, whatever you have done for them, do it for us, take the money.

The amount of demand and desperation which is rising is insane. So I can tell you just from anecdotal evidence that every company today, at least the ones who are smart and who are watching digital mediums, left right center, they are reaching out to us and just keep moving forward. So definitely that prediction of storytelling is rising. It's incredible that just in a year you go from a 3-4 month pitch in a day to close and we are not able to supply.

Linked to this, right, I feel that conventional media, conventional advertising, conventional advertising, conventional media are joined at the hip because in a way conventional advertising pays for conventional media. I think there is going to be a big problem. Because if storytelling is the way companies will now communicate with the world, then conventional advertising is not going to cut it. If conventional advertising is not going to cut it, then conventional

media faces a very interesting space. Right? 2-3 years ago, people used to abuse me that he is a storyteller. They used to say that I am doing something wrong. Why am I telling a story? I should take therapy. I should not tell a story. I should just give numbers. And in fact, a lot of people also commented that he tells a story.

And I said, I also discussed with my colleagues that he will only tell numbers, not tell a story. But then I realized that if I tell numbers, no one cares. If I go to a client and pitch Microsoft saying, sir, Microsoft is 20 times P and gives 17% EPS, then you should invest with us because people say, what nonsense is this? If I on the other hand say, Microsoft, every desktop in the world runs on Microsoft. It earns 120 billion. And every desktop file is stored on the cloud.

It earns 120 billion more. It earns 100 billion profit in the top line of 240 billion. And it makes 100 billion profit in acquisitions. And it does acquisitions in such a way that it buys whatever it wants in the world after 5 years. And Bill Gates has been running this wheel for 50 years, now Satya Nadella is spinning it.

And this is how this company has grown bigger than India. So that pitch I realized has far more resonance. And once I realized that, I realized that if there is a reasonably dry job like ours, first I would love to believe that we have a very creative job, we have a reasonably dry, closed-ended job. If our job is like this, then your job will be more. Right? And that's when I realized that storytelling will become the world

rather than that 45-second jingle. Right? If the 45-second jingle comes into risk because it's not doing an adequate job of representing the story, then that puts conventional media at risk. And then the question is, if conventional media is at risk, what is the alternative forms of media that will arise? I think this will link back at some stage to AI.

I'm not able to join the dots at the moment. But I think storytelling, the need for the human mind to understand the world through stories rather than facts and figures. And AI's ability to help small companies build giant franchises. I think these will join. I believe, I don't know about media, alternative media, what is rising, what is not, because I think traditional media is also becoming alternative media. But what I feel definitely will rise at least in next one, two years, that is, the good journalists and column writers who would paint a story and write about some phenomenon in the world which is going

on. I remember I used to read that Forbes. So, these are very good journalists and writers, they will grow again for some reason. They will, maybe their job or way will be just in traditional media or in a private company or as an independent gig worker, I don't know. But the ability to write a story based on phenomena without being dependent on whether the advertiser will pay or not. Just observing that and writing a good story like exceptionally good writers who try to

shift your perspective. They will rise. So, let's link that to another trend. So, I reach out to different TV channels and newspapers around the world. And I would give my 10 cents worth of thinking on what is happening in India. So, sometimes they take time from me to tell me what they think our future is.

These are large media houses outside India. So, I tell them, what is your problem? It doesn't matter which country you are in. You are a conventional media house. You are reluctant to do anything which your government will frown upon. So, you effectively, and it doesn't matter again, I stress, you are in America, UK, Singapore,

Japan, you are in a way a form of self-censorship, which prevents you from getting into trouble. Your audience knows this. So, the audience is saying, I am getting an edited, sanitized version. So, why am I wasting my time on this? Right? Let me now find an alternative channel,

which is not edited and sanitized, and I will use my intellect to figure out what to believe and what not to believe. In that context, so this is the background. The background is that the conventional media is facing a credibility challenge because

it considers the government as its parent. And this raises questions of credibility in the audience is asking questions of credibility. Which then creates space for the high quality content providers to create their own mini channel. Whether it is on YouTube, Instagram or wherever. And the audience is saying, I knew that he is a famous journalist or a famous writer. I can now access his content for whatever a few rupees, few cents.

And it's available on Spotify or YouTube. So, platform pe mujhe mil raha hai.

Ya, sub stack or whatever.

And these people are now earning a very good living. In fact, from what I can see, some of them are earning a better living than they did when they were part of big. When they were in a job, yeah. Right. This again links back to the gig work. It links back to creativity. It links back perhaps to AI. Right. Because, I am a journalist who specializes in sports. Just using AI cleverly, I can get a lot of legwork done, both on doing research and on creating

reasonably smart content. Right? I have seen the youngsters in our office create videos, two-minute, three-minute videos using AI with no other help. Right? So, if youngsters in our office are doing it, then the professional, a good sports journalist, he will make a good video of tennis or cricket. And then they can publish their content on multiple platforms. So, what happens with this is that the narrative that is presented, the way the narrative is

controlled, I think this is another prediction that I am trying to make. The narrative control that is tried will start to fall apart in 26 because the authoritative reputed commentators are no longer working inside the big shops. And again, I'm saying this is to the world over, right? US may, reasons we discussed. US may be alright. If the authoritative reputed commentators are independents and they are making a perfectly good living and the public is listening to

them then the narrative control starts eroding. And I think 26 will be a year, we are leaving aside the business model challenges of conventional media, the narrative control challenges of conventional media will also come to the fore.

True.

So, this was our discussion about economy. Right. Let's come to the next one. Sports. Just to finish off one more thing, right. In our country, all these issues that we were discussing, Indians will start investing abroad,

domestic challenges. I think F&O has become a hot potato in our country, futures and options. Because it is being published report after report that a retail investor is losing 10-12 billion dollars in a year. And a lot of this money is going to Wall Street. Because sitting in Wall Street, smart firms are using PhDs in physics and stats

to create algos. And here in our country, Bablu is sitting in Bulandshahr and is gambling on his mobile phone, on Nifty Bank or Nifty. Bablu's pocket is getting empty. There, 12 billion dollars are being deposited in the bank in Wall Street. So, real money gaming was banned in 2025.

My prediction is that by the end of 26, there will be a lot of restrictions on F&O. So that Bablu's pocket of of Bull and Sher will be full. They will be full and they will use the money to buy a packet of biscuits, buy some FMCG stuff, buy a motorbike. Because SEBI's data shows that on average, Indian FNO traders lose 1 to 2 lakhs a year.

Average FNO trader is losing 1 to 2 lakhs a year. So, motorbikes will be added to that. So, people like me are telling the government that Sir, if you want to recover consumption, 12 billion is a lot of money. 12 billion is 0.3, 0.4% of GDP.

Right? 12 billion is 1 lakh crores. By the way, the tax cut that the FNO gave in the 2025 budget, which was up to 12 lakhs, rehired the tax, income tax, that was roughly one lakh crore. So, you are giving 12 billion to Wall Street, giving annual gift from Bablu's pocket. Why will you give? I mean, what do we care? Why are we trying to enrich the American elite? They are already earning a lot. We don't have to enrich them. So, I think by the end of 26, somebody is going to tell our authorities ki yeh bandh karte hain naatak. I know the exchanges

make some money out of it and our brokerages make some money, but the loss to the country is profound and given the challenges we are facing on consumption, my prediction is jis prakaar se Real Money Gaming 2025 mein ban hua, I don't think FNO should be outright banned because it will create other distortions. But there will be a lot of restrictions. Okay, now let's come to sports. Okay.

So, in sports, I think the biggest story of 2025 was Indian women's cricket. Both the victory in the World Cup and the women's cricket team. But I think equally interestingly, the ladies who won the Blind World Cup, that was even bigger for me. Because see, women's cricket, conventional women's cricket had an upward arc.

It kept going and going. In a way, it reached its logical climax when we defeated South Africa in the final. And won the World Cup. And won the World Cup. Blind cricket was at least out of my knowledge set.

The fact that we are world champions in blind cricket was a stunner for me. Right? Because I had in my mind that no one in India gives money, doesn't sponsor, doesn't support. The fact that the BCCI was doing this in the background, I found it very pleasantly surprising.

So, my call is that I have understood from BCI that women's cricket in all shapes, forms, avatars is something they want to back big time. And when there is such a big, well-funded, powerful institution, my bet is that by the end of 26, the top women's cricketers will be rivaling the men for endorsement contracts. Maybe the men will have more contracts than the women, but at the per contract value, for a per contract value, I think the top two or three women will be getting paid the same amounts as the top men.

Really?

That's very far farfetched. So, I think, because I am saying this, why am I saying this? A, I have been seeing the rise. B, when I am watching the women cricketers, I am realizing they are able to articulate far better than the men can.

Right. They are able to articulate far better than the men can. So, for example, in the World Cup semi-final, Jemima explained how she dealt with her inner demons, how spirituality helped her. Plus the fact that she's willing to cry on screen, her mom and dad are hugging her. It's a very compelling media.

It's like a very compelling media. Similarly, after the World Cup, Joe, one of the cr the cricketers had a personal situation around marriage and so on. It played out in public. They were reasonably public about it. Again, very compelling drama. I've never seen such a thing in men's cricket.

So many personal stories. The willingness to share deeply personal stories on screen. Because remember, cricket is as much media. And be vulnerable and strong at the same time.

Absolutely.

Lovely. Right. So, I think this is a very powerful narrative. It is a compelling viewership. If you keep winning, the public will watch. If you become vulnerable after winning, the public will say, boss, we are the wild followers of this thing. Now, the other aspect why I am saying Rajki, within 2026, top women cricketers per endorsement, they'll be getting as much as.

The data we see, the data of RBI, that in cities now, women have more bank accounts than men.

The average balance in those bank accounts is more than men's balance. RBI data shows that default rates are far lower for women entrepreneurs than for male entrepreneurs. And in social media or digital spend, women are pulling ahead of men. So, my book of 2025, Behold the Lavayathar, we gave a whole chapter on women are rising in India. As women gain financial muscle, they will have more power to spend than men. The corporate sponsors, the corporates who pay for these endorsements, they will say

yaar agar meri customer hi woman hai, toh main middle-aged man ko kyu endorsement contract dera hun? Let me find a young women's cricketing star. Right? Successful hai, baat achcha karti hai, emote achcha karti hai, articulate hai aur uske saath customer base ki have more resonance.

So, this is my first controversial point of view that by the end of 2026, at the per endorsement value, the top women cricketers will be rivaling the top male cricketers.

Interesting.

Right. Now, link to this, right. If you leave aside cricket and men, right, if you leave aside the success of our male cricketers, in any other sport, men do not have any mental recall in India. Barring our male cricketers, in any other sport, and I don't fully understand why this happens, but you ask, you know, you ask, if I were to ask a typical viewer of Rajesh's podcast, that tell me, two successful male badminton players in India, they wouldn't know.

But they would know PV Sindhu. Right? We know Saina Nival. They would know Saina, right? Right? If I ask a typical Rajshabani's podcast viewer, that tell me, a famous male boxer, I don't think anyone knows. Mary Kom knows.

Vijender. Maybe North people know. I doubt South viewers will remember Vijender. But Mary Kom, almost everybody knows. And Pan India. Pan India bases recall.

So, this phenomenon I see in many sports. Barring cricket, Indian male sports stars don't have a market. But across sports, women stars have a market. And again, as the digital life becomes the main life and women customers become the main driver of commercial activity. I think sports stars, women sports stars across sports will get supported, backed. And my friends spend a

lot of money on talent finding and grass roots level sports. So, they are telling me that next wave of for example badminton stars, a whole wave of young women badminton players coming through will rule the world.

Right?

It's not happening in males.

Right?

So they keep telling me to invest some money. So I am also thinking where to get money from. But if I can get it, I will also back the next generation of women sports stars. Right? Because I can see that there are consumer women in this. And I can see the last four or five years, the women's sports stars have far greater

recall and resonance than the male stars. I can't put my finger on why this is happening, but it is happening. Why do you think? Like let's say if you had to guess. Why is it happening that all of a sudden, more people are watching women's sports? I think part of the, at least my superficial, as far as I understand, the customer base is increasingly women.

And hence, the sponsors are inclined to find women stars to back. Right? to find women stars to back, right? But it could also be that as India becomes a society better connected, better infrastructure, better law and order, more digital connect, the opportunities for women are exploding in a way that they perhaps aren't for men.

Men have, whatever opportunities men have had today, they perhaps had it 10 years ago as well. But I think women, orders of magnitude have jumped. So, for example, like when I go to Mumbai on weekends, like I was in Shivaji Park yesterday evening, the number of girls training for various sports, right, were comparable perhaps even larger than the boys training for various sports. If I had gone to, I remember spending time in Shivaji Park 20 years ago, it was not like that. It was primarily boys training, primarily cricket.

Now there is a variety of sports. And the number of girls training for a variety of sports, right? I spend my winter holidays between Christmas and New Year in Kolkata. There is a big sports facility near our house. If I see there, the number of girls training for boxing, for karate, for combat sport outnumbers now the boys, the number of boys training. In cricket, it's the same. I see the same in cricket coaching. But in combat sport, the girls training for boxing and because it's a big sports arena, I watch all the sports, right?

Ten years ago, it was not there. So, I think opportunities for women are improving and commercial sponsorship, I think, is also far more readily available for women stars. But I have to ask you a question on this. I had asked this in the podcast. Have you seen any sport in the world, which started for women and became globally successful and viewers started watching it on a sustained

rate? Even one, forget beaten men's sport, close to be a guy. So, for example, gymnastics, right? Gymnastics more than male gymnasts, female gymnasts, whether we are in Eastern Europe, when USSR used to dominate. Yeah, maybe the Olympics, gymnastics, there are male gymnasts as well, but the centerpiece of gymnastics in the Olympics is the women's events, right? But is there an audience for it to watch?

So at least there is an audience for it to cheer because country pride comes. But is there an audience to watch? So wherever in the Western context, wherever women's sport has come, like football, right? Soccer. So, women's soccer is now a big deal. In fact, in North America,

North America, women's soccer is a bigger deal than men's soccer. USA has been world champion in women's soccer. USA, in men's soccer, has not been world champion yet. People watch it. Like, commercial. So, obviously, soccer in America is, you know, I think American football comes first, then

basketball, then baseball. I think soccer comes after that. Sixth or seventh number. But women's soccer in America, especially the national team playing, gets more eyeballs than men's soccer. Women's soccer is big in Europe, but men's soccer is far bigger.

The women's NBA is also quite a big deal. Obviously, men's NBA is a bigger deal, but women's NBA rivals the IPL. Women's NBA has similar sort of financial numbers associated with it as the IPL in our country. So, women's sport is a big deal, but it could well be that we become the first country where leaving aside cricket, women's sport becomes a bigger deal in a range of areas than men's cricket. Remember, cricket itself is bizarre in our country and

no other country is cricket this big a deal. So, if we are outliers in cricket, then we can be outliers in women's sport. And it could well be that because our country is so big, our social mores are such that we will make a different ecosystem. America has made a bizarre ecosystem, right? They play a bunch of things nobody else in the world plays. But then they are the biggest.

They are the biggest in that. They make themselves world champions. So, maybe we will should have a similar story. But I think the sport area, especially the rise of women's cricket is easy to see because it is the most visible. And we won the World Cup. Yes, we won the World Cup.

You saw the World Cup? It was incredible. I saw the World Cup as well. I saw the whole thing. So, I am going to tell you a story around the World Cup. So, the day it was final, I had to go to Singapore.

It was a flight at 11.10 pm. It was a Singapore flight.

So, I was watching it on my phone.

I realized half the airport was watching it on the phone.

So, then I realized that until the final is not over,

And that's exactly what happened. It's basically when Harmanpreet took the final catch that pilot took the plane forward. Till that time they kept coming up with an excuse after excuse. It was a foreign carrier by the way. It was not our country's carrier. But they kept coming up with excuses after excuses that now this plane will take off. No, it won't.

Now it will take off. So they delayed the plane by an hour. No way. But when Harmanpreet took the final catch, the plane started moving. All of us in the plane were watching it on the phone. We celebrated. Interestingly, the whole plane wasn't watching, which I found quite strange.

But those who were watching, we were all exalted. And those who were not watching, those who were not watching, they asked, what happened? And then when we explained what happened,

they felt, they are cheated. How did we not know that such a big thing is happening? Right? And I found it very interesting. That's when I picked up that this story will be very lucky, boss. That half the plane was not watching. And they felt so left out.

That such a big thing happened. That first time a country other than England and Australia won the World Cup. And we did not even have air. We were not even looking at our phones. And this was happening in D.Y. Patil. And that's when I realized that the market is still so big. And that's when I, the kernel of that prediction was that by the end of 2026, at the endorsement level, women cricketers will be competing on a level footing with the men.

But then I extrapolated and said, this is a broader story around women's sport. But let's carry this on further. I think we discussed this in badminton. I think a new generation of women's superstars are being made. I am not going to name them because I don't want to hex them early in their careers. Let them do well and they'll probably be hosted by you on your podcast in a few years from now.

I think India's rise in chess will continue. Here we are breaking everything. One-sided domination. Both men and women are breaking.

Right?

And any World Championship, our kids are eating the whole table. So this will continue. Here the story is primarily of Western and Southern India.

Right?

Western and Southern India is becoming the world center for chess. In 26, India will get even more dominant position in chess. So I think out of the top 10 men, the top 10 male players, there are 3 or 4. I think 4th is also there but he does not live in India, so he is not of origin. Okay, so maybe in the top 10, half of our country will be there. Half of our country's people will be there. And this system is very powerful.

Because I have seen some of the weekends, the chess circuit that runs, it is very competitive, it is high class. And there is no disadvantage here versus a player in New York or a player in London, right? You know, like along with Vishy sir,

we also should give credit to a content creator. Now a leading comedian in India, Samer Aina. Okay. So, Samer literally like made watching chess cool.

Okay.

Because he streamed and got fun to it. And then there were so many people, who are generic people like me, who are in millions. They saw chess only because their father used to play it at home. They had no idea who are the legends of the chess world, right? We started watching only when he was streaming and then he made it like pretty much mainstream.

So, that also rose a lot because a person with influential following showed his hobby and showed India's progress. So all these dots got connected and that's when it rose a lot. And in a way, again, it links back to storytelling. Right. We were talking about storytelling. If you can take a subject like chess and all credit to Samer Aina for telling

the stories which brought it to life, then you can imagine the power of storytelling to transform any activity. And again, linking it back to new media, corporate sponsorship. Chess is not like a big conventional TV channel took the rights and launched a big property around it. Because where there is streaming, it's online, it's democratized and thus the corporate sponsorship as well is a very different construct to what it is in IPL.

In IPL, big companiesL. They put their logo.

ChessMain, all credit to S-Bridge for backing Gukesh.

will be far more democratized, far more niche companies.

Have they? Okay, I didn't realize. Chessmen. So, Prague is, I think, with Adani now. Right. So, if the big companies come in, by the time the kid is in his early teens, he will be already boasting a seven-figure net worth. And after that, I don't think training partners will be an issue. So, this story will continue. And thankfully, this is a multi-gender story. Here, boys and girls are killing it. Both of them. Whereas in other sports... Usually, brother and sister are also there.

So, let's come to the last heading today. So, pollution and politics. Before we go there, I have to ask you a question. I asked this to Pragya as well. When we hosted him here. Why do you think we have no champion of wrestler

from South India and no chess champion from North India? I think my superficial explanation will be around the geography of our country. The north has been open to invasion for centuries. The invaders' route through Afghanistan, through Pakistan, into the plains of northern India is a well-known route. And effectively every 20 years, northern India has been invaded, looted,

attacked, conquered, etc. And that's really there for North Indian society. North Indian society is based around physical prowess. Can you keep the invader out? Can you look after your property, your family, your life, livelihood? Right? And in South, that problem was never that serious. Even the deepest the Mongols and the Mughal invaders reached, I think deepest they got to was Hyderabad. And after that, they couldn't go to the South. No invader reached Madurai. So, two or three things happened. In the North, therefore, the need to be physically strong, physically alert, prepared,

created a natural breeding ground for wrestlers. South may, that physical threat was simply not as big a deal. And hence, you could take the longer view and focus on more intellectual stuff. The other aspect is, as an investor, I always look at discount rates. If you don't know if you will live or die tomorrow, then your discount rate is very high. Right? After two years, three years, it hasn't got that much relevance

for you because you can't afford to look that far. You will focus on the here and now. Your food will be very rich and nutritious, intended to help you deal with the invader. And your prep in life, your training in life will also be focused on dealing with the invader, not doing some intellectual game. On the other hand, if those pressures are not there, your diet, your thinking will be about aaj se 5, 10, 15 saal baad kya kar raha hunga main, kya meri life hogi. And the life of the mind and the life of training the mind

will take far more preeminence. And that's how I reckon the science and intellectual aspect of India has increasingly become a southern activity. Whereas protecting the country and physical and martial things have become a northern activity. Now, whether the British also encourage this or not, I don't fully understand. But this is my crude topography between seeing life in Madurai. I've been to Madurai lots of times and seeing life in Ludhiana.

And I've seen life in Ludhiana and I've

seen life in Ludhiana a few times as well and I love both places but they are chalk and cheese. Interesting. Interesting take. Okay, you were talking about nice insight. Last segment baat hai pollution and politics. So, first of all, I think iske kya predictions hai? Pollution toh bada mudda hai. It's obvious that it's having an impact on us. All you have to do is go to Delhi for a day, November, December, Jan, Feb. If anybody doubts how big an issue it is, go to Delhi for a day.

Don't wear a mask and see what it does to your body. So, my first prediction is that at some stage, in 2026, maybe 2027, in the winter months, Delhi will be declared an unlivable city. And November, December, Jan, Feb. Next year.

This year. So, maybe 2026 will happen. Naturally, if you declare Delhi unlivable, you still have to run the country from somewhere. So I was thinking, where will it happen? So I was thinking, what the British used to do in today's world. They used to say, in summer, the British used to say that Delhi is too hot in summer and they used to make Shimla the summer capital.

So, all the British administrators, they used to go to Shimla. They used to take a toy train to Kolkata. So, now, Delhi is alright in summer. It's hot, but you can deal with it thanks to air conditioning. So, I think winter capital India will have to be found. My hunch is that Ahmedabad will become the winter capital of India. So, November, December, Jan, Feb, I think Ahmedabad will become the winter capital. Ahmedabad in winter is pretty decent. I have been a bit of work through the year and there is not much problem in winter. There is no problem like Delhi in Ahmedabad. Now,

what is the reason? What is it called? Is it a crop issue or what? I don't know. But Ahmedabad is far better than Delhi in the winter months. So, if they had to choose a candidate for obvious reasons, Ahmedabad, I think. Why? Ahmedabad, I think, becomes the natural candidate given the identity of the dominant politicians in Delhi and given that they have obvious interests in Ahmedabad, it makes sense that if India needs winter capital and I think India needs winter capital, so Ahmedabad becomes the natural candidate for becoming the winter capital.

That in turn links to another issue, the Olympics of 2036. So, India has already said that Ahmedabad will be their candidate. As far as I understand, by the end of 2026 or by the beginning of 27, the winner will be announced. International IOC, International Olympics Committee will have to announce the winner of the 2036 Olympics bid. India has named Ahmedabad. I think Ahmedabad will win it. By the end of 26 or beginning of 27, IOC will I think announce Ahmedabad as the winner of the 2036 Olympics. Right? And that in turn will lead to billions of

dollars of wealth creation activity. Right? You need stadiums, you need hotels, you need colossal sea transport infrastructure. So, it will be a big story. If Ahmedabad gets the Olympics of 2036, I think it will get it a military right and I'm joining the two right in a way making and about the winter capital will also give more credibility to the bid key a Yamara a Mara city because normally when a country is bid for a when countries bid for the Olympics really the capital city is the isender, right? So, when it was in Greece, Athens was the contender.

When it was in Japan, it was Tokyo, right? So, it was a little odd in our country that Delhi was not there. It's understandable why Delhi was not there. Because we couldn't breathe how you will host the Olympics, right? You can't host it in the summer because in 45 degree heat, the person will die. You can't host it in the winter because you can't breathe. So, Delhi therefore got neutral, was cancelled out. That's when I started realizing that India will need winter capital.

That's when the idea of Ahmedabad came and then Ahmedabad also becomes the winner of the 2036 Olympics. Then, you know, the whole thing. Interesting. Aligns very nicely and it will be a big game. Stadiums, hotels, transport infrastructure, huge amounts of money, construction contracts, right? A lot of money will be made. Will they host in a state where there's no alcohol, there's no celebration?

Now, that sports star doesn't have to drink alcohol, right? It's supposed to be... Like the people when they come, they go to any sporting event. The large sale is hotel, restaurant, beverages, like food and beverages. Any sporting event in the world. So, previous World Cup, the previous World Cup was in Qatar, right? The Qataris held firm.

They didn't allow, yeah, they didn't serve alcohol. I think, in fact, they didn't even allow alcohol brands to be, I think they didn't allow alcohol brands to be associated with the World Cup. No, no, no. That was there. Was it allowed? Our advisor was there. So, in Ahmedabad, I know, because we have an office in Gift City.

Drinking is allowed in Gift City. Gift City is on the side of Ahmedabad. Gift City is on the side of Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad. Drinking is allowed there. So, maybe there will be some kind of carve out. But I think that will be a secondary issue, right? issues. So, Ahmedabad becomes the winter capital of India. Ahmedabad also goes on to win the

2036 Olympics. Then, linking this back to now, politics. In 2027, India will have its next census. So, remember, the last census was in 2011. Usually, the census used to be every 10 years.

Right? So, in 2027, as far as we know, the census will be in 2027. Delimitation means, which state will get

how many parliamentary seats, how many Lok Sabha seats which state will get. So, in today's date, Southern India has roughly one third of the Lok Sabha seats. Given how India's population has changed and this Lok Sabha seat allocation which holds today was done back in 71. Right, 71 or 2026. So, in this period, population share of Southern India is likely to have dropped and my reckoning is it would have gone from one third to perhaps one fourth. So, if the census is 27 and delimitation constitutional act says the census has to be respected because

one man one vote that has to be respected. Then as per the census, Southern India's Lok Sabha seat share is likely to drop from one-third to one fourth. Okay. Obviously, the gain will be North India. Now the challenge this poses is India's half GDP and half tax collection comes from South. So already people of South are upset that we pay for half the taxes. We only get one, we only get one third of the seats in Parliament. So after in 27, India turns to the south and says, look, boys and girls, you pay for half

the taxes, but you're only going to have one fourth of the seats in Parliament. I don't think they'll be happy. So this issue will be hot in 26. Because people can broadly figure out this maths. This issue will be hot in 26. It's above my pay grade. I don't have the answer to this. You wanted a prediction as my reckoning is by Diwali 26, delimitation and this whole North-South issue

will be a hot topic because the census will be getting ever closer. And with the census looming, the whole issue of what percentage of seeds go to the south. So, there will be naturally a need to find a fix and whichever political leader can find a fix good for him or her. But this is going to be a big issue. And then I will finish with the prediction on narratives and scams? So, my reading of India, right? I was born in 76 and the first big scam I saw first up close was Bofors. I was a school kid in 80s.

So, I used to see Bofors, the rumbling scan around Bofors, who took the gun, who got the money, etc. etc. And after that, every 5-6 years, there has been a scam. Usually, in India, a scam comes when the narrative breaks. Right? So, earlier I used to think that a scam comes and then the narrative breaks. But as I grew older, I realized that a scam comes when the narrative breaks.

Right? So, just using the Beaufort's example, you know, till early 80s India had this narrative, ki hum bahut sam socialist desh hai, sabka saath sabka vikas kar rahe hain, gareeb ko, ameer ko tax kar ke gareeb ko paisa de rahe hain. Right, yeh sab narrative tha. And people like my dad's generation were enthusiastic votaries of that.

My dad used to work for public enterprises and his job was that I will work hard, I will pay taxes, I will pay taxes in full and distribute it among the poor. This will help the country to move forward. But by the early 80s, people in India were fed up of that narrative. And the first wave of consumption started. Maruti cars came, I think in 83-84. Small Maruti 800s started coming.

Imported electronic goods started coming. Burgers and fries and ice cream, fast food culture started coming in Delhi. And mid-1980s, the first mini consumption wave had come. And people realized that this is a useless narrative. We will work hard and pay taxes and the poor will be taxed. What sort of useless socialist narrative is this?

And Bofors in a way followed. Bofors followed that. Followed the destruction of that narrative.

Right.

So, I think there is a break in India's narrative. I think the Indian narrative will be challenged again. And linking back to whatever we discussed over the last few hours, AI, the destruction of office jobs, the challenges around wages for the middle class, this whole borrowing, right? I think the whole narrative that if we are

good kids in India, we will be educated, we will have good kids, we will get a job, we will move forward, that narrative is breaking. It's breaking because nobody can control, right? Nobody can assure me that my kids will get a job if they study because, there will be no jobs. So, when the narrative breaks, then disillusionment comes. Right? People get lost. And in that void comes scams. Right? So, AI has such a big shock and it is attacking the middle class narrative in such a way that I think in 2026, the probabilities of disillusionment are, prospects are rising. Again link that back to what we discussed around the ability of the mainstream media

to control any given narrative across the world is coming under pressure. So, in different ways, I think we we are, 2026 will be a very interesting year. Very interesting year. Lots of things will change. A lot of old certainties are going to fade away. It will compel all of us. It will compel me. It will compel many other investors like me to rethink the world. We will have to do a lot of homework on how to rethink and invest money. But it does feel like an end of an era where old certainties get washed away by the geopolitics that Trump and his supporters have unleashed, the tech changes that AI social media have unleashed and the demographic changes that our country is going

through, the whole North versus South ka mudda jahan pe South mein prosperity hai, but population growth nahi hai. North mein population growth hai, lekin economic growth itni tagdi nahi hai. Demographic upheaval, digital upheaval, AI and digital upheaval, aur waha pe Trumpian political upheaval where she's pushing through these tariffs and these very hard-nosed FTAs that he's negotiating with the world. So, 26 feels like a year where a lot of old certainties I think fall away.

But when you talk about all of this and this is all going on, an average person living in this country, the taxpayer who is earning money, where will he earn money? Everything seems to be breaking. Yes, so we discussed, right? One form of income tax was given by the FMI in February 2025. I have a sense that more form of tax is needed.

I think even small companies need to pay corporate tax. Because at the moment we have a bizarre construct where even if your turnover is 1 crore, you pay out 25% corporate tax rate. If your turnover is 1000 crore, you have a 25% corporate tax rate and it makes no sense at all. A small company can't possibly compete with a giant.

And yet we are saying, so I think, so the, just call it direct taxation, in economics, direct taxation means corporate tax or income tax. Here, pressure will keep coming that we should give them leave because the casualties are quite evident. Small companies, those who earn profits below 1 crore and the middle class which is earning 15, 20, 30 lakhs. Direct taxation becomes, I think, increasingly challenged. Indirect taxation, means GST, will increasingly become the route

through which we, which the government will have to tax. Now, indirect taxation is harder to escape because of indirect taxation, effectively consumption

tax. Consumption increasingly of services, right? And services increasingly of online services

will become, I think, the mainstay of taxation regimes the world over, right? So, again, coming back to whether it is software, whether it is the use and purchase of AI, whether it is online entertainment, that entire ecosystem will become very closely linked to the ability of the state to be able to tax its citizenry. Direct taxation increasingly will become tenuous. Another way to think of this is the Indian elite is saying, yaar, waise pollution-pollution ke pange hain, traffic ka panga hain, plus taxes high hai. Why should I stay here? Apna business

India mein rakhta hoon, aur apna pura ghar aur wealth Dubai shift kar deta hoon. Singapore wealth shift kar deta hoon, ghar Dubai shift Singapore wealth and house to Dubai. As a result, I don't need to pay tax in India. My business will remain in India, but my personal wealth and income, I take out as much as possible. And I'll get a better quality of life as it is. That makes it very difficult for the government to tax income. And therefore, I think increasingly taxes will shift from taxing income to taxing consumption. Consumption in the digital area will increasingly be about purchases of digital online purchases.

And there, the load of taxation will have to get taxed far more heavily than it is today. But fiscal pressures will increase because again, it is a transition period. We are accustomed to taxing income. Increasingly, it is becoming difficult to tax income in a world where wealth is very easy to shift across borders. But I think in the next 2-3 years, the burden of taxation increasingly will shift away from taxing income profits to taxing consumption. But in this thing, then are you telling or trying to say that, if I have to make money,

and if I am making my money by either salary or profits or companies or whatever, the way for me to invest and make outsize returns on that will be largely dependent on US companies or foreign people. So, let's put it in even more simpler way. So, as we discussed, right, the world has only 4% market cap in India. So, obviously, if the world has 4% market cap in India

and you have invested all your life savings there, that's not a particularly clever idea, right? There's the remaining 96% of the world to give the authorities in Delhi credit and the authorities in Gift City credit, they've made it actually quite easy to invest globally. They've also made it low cost and they've actually made it reasonably tax efficient to invest globally.

So, over 26, a lot of Indians will say, what am I doing? Why am I putting 100% of my equity allocation to 4% of the world? When the government, the authorities are making it easy for me to invest globally, cheap for me to invest globally, tax efficient for me to invest globally. Let me take, say at least a third, ideally half of my wealth and go global with it. Now, whether you buy American stocks or Swedish

stocks or Canadian stocks or German stocks, I think it is a secondary issue. The primary issue that will be in people's mind over the course of 26 is what am I doing, why am I putting 100% of my wealth in 4% of the global market. When I see all this fuss that I was describing, it is not as if it is not happening in the rest of the world. It's happening in the rest of the world. But at least the rest of the world, especially the western world, AI isn't as much of an

adverse shock. As it is for us. As it is for us. In fact, as I was describing, for many parts of the world, AI is a blessing because it mitigates the need for having lots of young people. So, this basic thing I think will come in people's mind.

And I stress again all credit to the government, right? They have done the same in long-term capital gains, tax, global investing as India did in 2024 through GiveCity, through LRS, another route called overseas portfolio investment. You can now invest abroad very large sums of money for 9. It was 250K.

In our case it was 250K per pan per year. So, for most people watching 250K per pan per year is more than adequate to move vast majority of their equity allocation to world. And for those of us who run companies, as per the overseas portfolio investment rule, you can invest half of your company's net worth globally through Gift City. So, you can take out half of the company's net worth.

You can take away your own personal net worth of 2.25 crores. You can take out 2.25 crores of dollars every year. So, 250,000 dollars. 250,000 dollars. Yes, 2.25 crores. Yes, rupees. So, the government has given all the means.

Long term capital gains tax. There is no difference between India and foreign countries. And there has been a lot of liberalization in the use of LRS. So, the government has made all the preparations. Now, it is incumbent on us to use our common sense

and say that simple point. If 96% of the world's market is outside India, why am I not investing there? And if I want to invest, how should I invest? And there will be a variety of people to inform that, inform that answer including people like us. So, this point I think will come to people's mind and again I take it back to the crumbling of old narratives. See, when you tell people that this is a narrative,

then put all the money in it. What is the old narrative around investing in India? So, old narrative in any country, whether in America or India is that you invest in your country. So, it is called home country bias. It is very famous in America.

About 70-80% of the money of the world market is them only. Right? And they have also been the best performing market by far over the last 30 years. So, unke liye utna bura nahi hai but even say countries like UK, most British people invest their money in UK only. To isko home country bias bolte hain. And the home country bias comes from a world where you watch a TV channel, you read a newspaper, your world is limited there. Growth is there.

Growth is there and all the commentators are talking about your country. Now that world is not there. If you are starting your day using Microsoft Office and then you are using 5 foreign LLMs in your day, all your electronics are foreign. Right. All the instruments you are using in your workplace, all the equipment is foreign.

The clothes you are wearing are mostly foreign. Right. So, which means, unless you are completely… You are using the same place. Unless you are completely deluded, right, you will say, what am I doing?

If I am living, I am a global Indian, I am living the global life, right? So, that day I was flying in Air India. I realized that the plane is foreign. Every plane is foreign. The oil in the plane is also foreign. Then I took an in-flight magazine. I think its name is Namaste. I saw that it is also made in Hungary. Right. So I saw a guy on the side, he is watching Spotify. Here the guy is watching YouTube.

The lady in front is watching Netflix.

Right. So I thought what to do.

He is watching on Apple, Samsung, Vivo. So I panicked. Half of my portfolio is in India. Why half? Why am I over allocated to India, given that I am, I am seeing the whole plane, everything is foreign, right? So even if you wanted to live a Swadeshi life, right? By the way, this is a jacket of Fab India.

Even if you wanted to live a Swadeshi life, it is very difficult to do things other than buying the odd Fab India garment or a Khadi ka garment. Bahut tough hai. Bahut tough hai. And that point, because narrative control chal raha tha, logon ko samajh nahi aara tha. But the narrative control now disintegrates because nobody now just sits and watches Apne Desh ka channel and nobody just sits and reads Apne Desh ka Akbar.

In fact, hotel lobbies mein muuft ka agbar milta hai. Most hotels give the muft ka agbar. Nobody touches the bloody thing I have seen. Jogar jo bhi different hotels give different agbar muft mein, nobody touches the agbar and it's free. Nobody touches it and that's when I realized the narrative control is disintegrating.

I still read a newspaper. I love reading the paper, but I think I'm the last of the last of a fading generation. And whoever stays in the three star, four star business hotels I frequent, nobody seems to read the paper, even though it's available free of charge. I feel like an oldie in my office because I read newsletter. Forget newspaper. Newspaper is not heard by anyone. I am the only newsletter. Only the social media is consumed. We have printed something here.

This story will also end. So, all of this has pretty profound ramifications. The ability to control narratives, whether it's mainstream media's narrative or a country's narrative, it is spreading. As it spreads,

new forms of influence are going to emerge. We started with Trump and Thiel and Mimetic Desire As it spreads, new forms of influence are going to emerge. We started with Trump and Thiel and mimetic desire and increasingly the narrative control will be around those deep underlying human desires. Rather than telling Raj that you invest in India, the narrative control will be around understanding Raj's psychology or Saurabh's psychology

and understanding what psychological gratification he needs. So if he needs a scapegoat, we will provide a scapegoat for you. And that's how I will show my leadership. That's how the philosophy of Ramesh Jirard, which is imbibed by Thiel, which JD Vance has learned from Thiel and Jirard, that world, those people are running. They are saying, we don't mind if they watch soccer rather than American football.

But we do mind who they perceive as the scapegoat. And it's very interesting, right? The leaders are, these guys are saying, we are willing to let go of some aspects of narrative control, such as, kya sport ab aap public dekhegi?

Because we realize the core aspects of control are around your deepest psychological desires. So what's the desire of an American who wants to become an Indian skateboarder? So two parts. Remember

if you believe the Girard school of thought, we are all aspiring for the same things. Whether you are American or Indian or Chinese, in your life, all your desires are similar. Yes, to earn money, you need a big car,

a big life, you need status. So, you are struggling to fight for that. Right? And what Girard is saying is, the leader emerges by saying, that it's not your fault that you are in such a mess in your life. It's not your fault.

It's the fault of that scapegoat over there. So, the leader has to do this much. The Jews in Bethlehem or in Israel 2000 years ago, they simply had to say Jesus is the scapegoat. Right? When a company's stock price falls, the new CEO has to say, the old CEO is useless, remove him. Right? So, that'sko nikaal do.

Toh utna hi karna hai. And now who will you make the scapegoat? Will you make the scapegoat somebody really powerful? Or will you make the scapegoat somebody who is very visible, but actually powerless? So, that's where, as I said, that's where my reading of the situation is. They have doubled down on the Indian community.

And I think this was done a few months after Trump's victory. Because Trump initially when he won, I think a year ago, Jan 25, when you and I did the podcast, at that time it was not that apparent that he will be after us. Which is why when I said on your pod in Jan 25 that he will be after us, a lot of people said to me, no, he is talking nonsense, it will not happen. Right. So, somewhere around Feb-March last year, their think tank must have come up with this whole idea that we have to be after someone on an ongoing basis to win

popularity with our right-wing supporters. These people are solid because they are prosperous, visible and in minority. So, they are followed. They set up a fire of H1V and then abuse them. Right. And then at a country level, they put a tariff on them. And my reading is they take a measure, then they calibrate how they are sitting in the vote bank.

If the vote bank is liking ita baith raha hai. Agar vote bank ko pasand aar raha hai, then they increase the positioning. And from what I can make out, it's worked out well. So agar aap CNN waghara dekho, CNN is a reasonably liberal outlet. Wahan bade bade article rahate hain, kis prakaar se open season hai American Indians pe. Interesting. Toh narrative control tootta hai, the leader shifts the narrative and that's how I guess politics

works the world over. Okay. I have a last question which is around, I was reading a tweet like few days ago. Elon Musk tweeted, I don't know if you saw that. He said double digit growth is coming within 12 to 18 months. If applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth, which it should be, triple digit is possible in 5 years.

He is talking about American economy. Double digit growth will come in 12 to 18 months in economy. Earlier Caleb Hammer tweeted that 4.3% year on year GDP growth in Q3 is kind of fucking crazy. Didn't see that coming. There is a very famous investor above him, which is Mark Anderson. Must be knowing about him.

So he tweeted that it's time to grow and put a flag of America. And then Elon tweeted this that double digit growth is coming. So, like large size investors and people like Anderson, Elon, they're all openly predicting and saying this. Do you think there is some rationale behind this or they are just having fun? So, thinking from where they are sitting, from there where they are sitting, they can obviously see that their companies will increasingly use AI to make shit tons of money, right?

With very few people, they'll make lots of money because as we discussed, right? You reduce the need of people, right? When I would see TCS 6 lakh and Accenture 3-4 lakh, Microsoft 2 lakh employees, OpenAI 2000 and DeepSeek 200. So if you think like that, AI-centric companies will obviously make crazy amounts of money. And from where they are sitting, I suspect that's the perspective they are seeing. The perspective which I think they are not seeing and the perspective which I am struggling with is that you can see the supply side that AI will bring all these efficiencies.

But if the other side does not have a job, how will it eat? Right? And this then begs the question that if AI creates massive winners, these mega companies, the Microsofts and Alphabets. AI creates these incredibly powerful companies whose market cap is bigger than India's GDP. And then it creates these tens of thousands of job losses in a country like us. Where does the consumption come from? Now, if the wealth creation and job losses were in the same country, right, then it's

easy. The government simply has to tax the, if the wealth creation was in America, the job losses were in America, it's easier. The government simply has to tax the winners and pass it on to the, distribute the welfare amount. But if the winners are there in America and the losers are here in India, what will you do?

And I think that's the big question I don't have the answer for and I think that's the piece that the American government has figured out. That these people are on the receiving end and therefore, hence the trouble we are having in closing out the FDA. Because they realize that we don't have the leaves. And the Chinese are also, I think, figured that out. That we don't have the leaves.

And I don't have a solution. As I was saying, my hope is three to four years hence, as AI's substitution effect piece decreases and complementarity effects come forward, we will be able to create 100 million jobs. come up. We will be able to create 100 million jobs. We as a country will be able to create 100 million jobs doing the grant work around the day-to-day implementation of LLMs for various, for millions of use cases. Right? I think that work will come to India. But from here to there, it is a journey of

2-3 years. And it is going to be a, it feels like a tricky journey. Brutal. Brutal journey because old certainties, the old narratives, the old realities come under pressure before the new job creation and the new opportunities emerge. Right. And that's why I feel 26 is the year where we leave the old behind and we move towards the new. And you know, I think the rest of our lives are going to be like this. As you leave behind the construct of big companies and certainties and set political order and set

technological realities, right? In that context, diversifying globally, diversifying globally, diversifying across asset classes, I think becomes a new norm, becomes necessity rather than saying I will invest all the money in one market and then I will pray a lot that God, this market should move forward. But even when you look at the global market, whenever a revolution comes, it becomes skewed economics where the 4-5 large companies, conglomerates, that are bringing revolution, they only benefit, the rest all get trickled down.

So for example, when we saw the banking world happen, there were only a few that became Rockefellers and Rothschild of the world, and they had it. Then the Fords of the world happened, then the tech giants of the world. Now the AI is going to do the same thing. That all the other companies, they will not earn at the top, mid, lower level.

Only the top ones will earn 4-5. So then does that investment strategy also becomes that just put a large cap in big companies, don't put it anywhere else. So the world you painted right, there are two versions of it. One version is, as you were saying, Ford and General Electric.

So, America, America 100 years ago. So, there were winners and losers. So, therefore, it was in the same country. And therefore, the natural solution which America implemented through between 1930 and 1950 was the creation of a welfare state. Great Depression or Second World War. America said, there are so many winners, but they are so big, tax them and make a welfare state. And that's how they created,

I think, they called it Great Society or something. So, they made a welfare state, gave unemployment benefit, made roads and so on and so forth. So, that's banaya, unemployment benefit di, sadke banayi and so on so forth. So, that's a happy case study. Same country ke andar winners, same country ke andar losers, sarkar ka kaam pesa shift karna. The difficult case study is Britain ka industrial revolution.

Because the winners were over there. There were British large companies.

And the losers were in the colonial world.

There, large companies made goods. All that goods were put on us. Our industries were destroyed. Right. By the power of colonial power. And Britain became rich. And they impoverished India. They transferred wealth.

Right. So, that is a deadly case study. Because it suggests that the people who have the technological might, remember their might was they had modern weaponry and they had modern political systems and they used that to colonize Africa and Asia and they created gigantic companies in the West, in the UK, which sold their stuff in the colonial world and that's how the world existed between say 1750 to 1950.

If you're not going to see a replication of that, and my fear is that technology is becoming so unequal that we might see a replication of that. That effectively created technological colonialism. All IPs are with America. All hardware, all software IPs, all hardware IPs are with them. We are just sitting here and using it. We neither have hardware IP nor software IP. We neither have biotech IP nor EV IP. Right? We have got zero IP now, which is of relevance in the third industrial revolution.

So, what can be the result? We become users of their technology. We have to pay them for it. And because they are monopoly suppliers of tech to us, they can squeeze us. In a way, they can't squeeze China. Because China, barring Nvidia's GPU, and a bunch of other things, China is reasonably competitive. In EV, you could argue they're the best in the world now.

Railroads give the Chinese very powerful bargaining power. We don't have that capability today. And that's the imbalance of power which is worrying me. I'm hoping that the fact that we have a large educated tech literate population, we have low cost broadband, we have a young population allows us to become the back office of this whole tech world.

But do I invest today my money until that happens? Do I invest my money in large companies who are going to be at the benefit receiving end of this AI revolution and technology world. So, we are investing the bulk of our money in small and mid caps in the Western world. But why small and mid cap, if only top companies are going to win? No, so, remember a small cap company can also dominate the world.

So for example, 95% of the world's airline seatbelts are made by Transdime. Transdime is listed in NYSE as a $20 billion market cap. In the context of the US, it is a small cap. $20 billion. $20 billion. In the context of the US, it is a small cap.

But 95% of the market share of the seatbelt is kept by them. 15% dollar EPA is required. It is at 15 PE, that's why we bought it. So, these small and mid caps like Transdime, you will get them at 15- 20 times in PE. There is a 15 to 20% earnings growth. They are using AI to improve their efficiencies and to keep their leadership strong. They have already made global leadership. We are taking such companies and going ahead because we are saying we don't know which LLM will dominate. It seems the world has

a few too many LLMs. One of them or two of them will probably win the game. But even those two might not choose to make a lot of money. They might choose to use the LLM to propagate their product and their superiority. But the companies who use the LLMs constructively, companies who use AI to build comparative advantage, they could potentially be the big winners of this era.

So courtesy the freedoms, courtesy the liberalization which has been granted to people like us to give city, western world is small and mid caps. You also have large companies which Bakshar Hathway, which has 500 billion dollars, which they will deploy hopefully sensibly to make money. Warren Buffett did such a great job for so many years, Charlie Munger did a great job. They are now out of the picture.

Hopefully the next gen of Bakshar Hathway will. Will use 500 billion dollars properly. And then we have some of the staple kind of the colossal giants of our era, Microsoft, Amazon, who dominate our era because they provide the basic utilities, tech utilities, which underpin even this podcast that you and I are doing. So, in India, large companies, I think, because in the Indian market, foreign companies are

not as interested as not interested in it. Right? In India, the large companies, they will have a reasonably decent run. I also suffer from home country bias. I live here. So, I have invested half of my money here. But the rest of the money, over the last four years,

I have invested in the Western world. Trying to understand and make sense of this upheaval that we are living through. Interesting. Okay, I have to ask you, sorry, one last thing. Almost. Okay, and the thing is, what is happening in gold and silver? My audience would have killed me if I had not asked you. Okay, so let's give the first textbook answer, controversial answer. So, in finance, it is taught that you diversify in low correlation assets. So, India and USA, the two stock markets, are low correlation. Both the markets give decent returns.

So, obviously, it is logical to diversify in these.

Right?

Gold and India also have low correlation. Gold and America also have low correlation. Gold and America also have low correlation. Right? America roughly, roughly, 14-15% dollar in the long term. India gives 10% dollar in the long term. I am talking about Indian equities.

And gold gives 8% dollar in the long term. So, 15% America, 10% India, 8% gold. They have low correlation. In an ideal world,, have one third in each of the assets, you end up around the 14-15% mark, right? One third in each asset, keep rebalancing.

Now there's two ways to diversify. You diversify from a sasta asset to an expensive asset, right? Doesn't sound very clever, but that's one thing you could do. You could sell a cheap asset and buy a really expensive asset. The other way to diversify is to sell an expensive asset and buy a cheap asset. That's the logic we followed when we diversified out of Indian smit caps into American and

European smit caps into American and European smit caps. But on that logic, gold I don't think is a very clever idea. I think we should wait a little before we buy gold. So I would love to have gold and silver as the two precious metals collectively, perhaps platinum as well. I would love to have precious metals as one third of my portfolio. But at these valuations, I am not sure this is a good idea. So, I am waiting for half Indian and half American equities in my money.

When will these precious metals come down? I don't know when they will come. So, if you can host a precious metals expert on the podcast, I would love to listen. But he said controversial take. What is the answer? So, controversial take is that wait for fear to abate. Right.

At the moment, the whole story is running on fear. But why is it happening suddenly? Why is silver rallying? Like insane. So, in a way, if you think about what we have discussed over the last three years, right? If we are sitting and drinking tea, we are understanding that there is a huge upheaval

going on. So, the people who run the central bank all over the world, the people who invest in the official Jamaat Poojis of every country, they are also understanding that there is a huge upheaval. And therefore, they are taking sovereign wealth, right? Several countries are taking country's wealth and they are buying gold with that. And that is jacking up the gold

price. Now, if those people have seen the world and they know the most profound truths, then gold will continue to run. Everything else should be sold and just gold should be bought. But I think those people are also perhaps overreacting to the whole tariff drama which played out through 25. Barring India and Brazil, right? Trump is behind Brazil because they have jailed his friend Jair Bolsonaro. He is behind us because of the, the theory I gave you, the mimetic one.

Barring these two countries, the rest, Trump and anyone else, has no idea about tariffs. So the tariff issue, I think, gradually is fading. The US Fed is cutting. Earnings growth in America as a whole is running at 11-12. In our portfolio, it is 18-19 dollars. In India, earnings growth is running at 2-3% in dollars. Long term, it is 5.5 is going at 2-3% in today's date. So, in the West, the earnings flow is already strong.

If the Fed cuts more, then the earnings flow will be stronger, I think. And I think the tariff by and large is behind us, barring Brazil and India. So, the fear trade, because of which the big central banks bought gold. Perhaps the worst of the fear trade which has ramped gold up is behind us. And if that's the case, hopefully gold comes down. And that's why I'm saying it's controversial because it seems like fear trade will work in today's date. So, I'm waiting for gold to come down at which point I will put one third of my wealth in precious metals of various sorts.

So, right now I am going at 50-50. We have a portfolio of asset allocation of Maharaj, in that precious metals I think 10-15% already are there. We call it multi-asset portfolio, in which there are bonds, Indian equities, REITs, in that precious metals. But in Sourav Mukherjee's personal portfolio,

there is no gold at present. Interesting. Alright, thank you so much. My pleasure. Thank you for hosting me.

Thank you.

Hi Raj. Hi.

Sir, at this point, would you say, would you say, would you say,

would you have a seat?

Book sales, 2025, for book sales is close to the highest year ever. Highest year ever is COVID ka saal, 2020 for obvious reasons. People were sitting at home, that's why they read books all over the world. But 25 was just narrowly behind 2020. So people are getting stunned that people thought that attention span is shrinking. People will not read books, will not watch long videos, won't listen to podcasts.

But it seems that while there is a population which is watching less and less, there is also a population which is reading and listening and watching more and more. So, there is a polarization. The middle man is becoming hollow. But this polarization is most unexpected and it will have a huge impact on mainstream media. Thank you so much for watching this episode till the end. Now you have to do three things. Number one, subscribe to this channel right now.

Because the more you subscribe, the more valuable and better guests we can bring for you. Number two, tell me in the comments what you learned from this episode. And which guest do you want us to invite next? And we should talk to them in an insightful way so that you can become a better person. And number 3, do share this episode with at least one person. Because one conversation is enough to change someone's life.

Because one conversation is enough to change someone's life. I'll see you next time, until then keep figuring out.