Trump's inflation approval rating, Cornyn's TX loss & more | Enten roundup

Donald Trump has been struggling on inflation basically for well over a year now.It was of course what got him re -elected back in 2024, the fact that Americans disliked Joe Biden's handling of inflation.But the Iran war has taken it to a whole new historic level.I want you to just take a look here.Okay, Trump's done approval on inflation.Pre the Iran war, according to Fox News polling, he was 30 points underwater.

Look at this drop over just three months' time.52 points underwater.I went back through the history books.There's no president before Trump who ever had a net negative inflation rating of at least 50 points underwater.And now Trump is doing it in the Fox News poll with minus 52.And I've seen it in a number of polls as well.

And this decline matches.It has taken Trump from low levels to historically low levels in just three months' time.You rarely see this type of movement.But the Iran war has hit Americans' wallets, and they are taking out on the president of the United States.

That's the part of it that I just think is incredibly unusual.

20 -point drop in three months.

Just three months' time.

All right.Among whom?Among whom?This is where it gets even more interesting because just take a look here.Groups that shifted on inflation.Okay, Trump sent approval on inflation by your 2024 vote.

Look at this.Harris voters have stayed pretty constant.They don't like Donald Trump very much at all.It went from minus 92 to minus 94.But look at Trump voters.This is where the decline is coming from.

Trump voters have turned on Trump when it comes to inflation.Pre -war, he was at plus 37 points on the net approval rating on inflation.Look at this now.Trump voters.He has a negative net approval rating on inflation among Trump voters.We're talking an over 40 point decline in just a few months.

That is the power of the Iran war on the American's wallet and Republicans' wallet.Trump voters' wallets.

40 point swing, Trump voters, three months.All of that, correct.Okay.What does this do in terms of which party people trust more on the issue?

Yeah, okay.If Republicans who are running in the midterm electionsthink this is going to touch them, they got another thing coming.They got another thing coming because here's a reality check for you.Okay.Party trusted more in inflation midterm cycles.

You go back to the last midterm cycle.Look at this.Republicans were trusted more about this point by 19 points in inflation.Look at this now.Democrats, that's an over 25 point switch route in the Democrats direction when it comes to inflation.And then I'll just note, Look, you were talking about PCE earlier.

What about this?Chance Mace CPI, a different measure of inflation, is above April's 3 .8%.Look at this.96 % chance per the Cauchy prediction market.So the prediction markets, the people who are putting their money where their mouths are, don't think it's going to get any better anytime soon.

How historic was Gordon's loss?

I feel like we're on The Tonight Show.How historic was it?How low do we go?It was historic to a degree that we have not seen since my mother was born.And I'm not going to give the exact age, but you'll be able to figure it out, because just take a look here.Okay, the worst GOP senator primary lost by the margin, the worst ever for a Republican senator, it now belongs to John Cornyn.

His 28 -point loss on Tuesday night was the worst, the worst since at least World War II for a Republican senator.We have seen this over and over and over again.When a Republican goes up against Donald Trump or Donald Trump really goes up against them, It doesn't end too well for that Republican senator.We saw it just a few weeks ago, though, with Bill Cassidy getting, what, just 25 % of the vote, which was the lowest vote share total for any incumbent senator.And now when looking at the margin, again, breaking history, the 28 -point loss for John Cornyn, the worst for a Republican senator since at least World War II, Kate Baldwin.That is how historic it was.

That is, yeah.That fits into historic.So Cornyn is kind of, if you wouldn't say, like a Bush -era Texas Republican.How much has the party shifted from the Bush era, if you will, since Trump has come into the party?

Yeah, I mean, look, John Cornyn was first elected back in 2002, and I will just tell you that the George W. Bush era of the Republican Party is simply put, it is dead.It is dead, and this was the capstone to it.And Donald Trump Republican Party is very much alive.He is the leader of the Republican Party.I just want you to look here.I mean, this just tells you everything that you need to know, which is the net favorable rating with the GOP.

You have Donald Trump, you have George W. Bush.Before Donald Trump declared back in May of 2015, look at this.George W. Bush's net favorable rating was plus 58 points.Donald Trump was 45 points underwater with Republicans.Look at this.This is an over 100 point shift, I do believe, Donald Trump is now at plus 61.

That's an over 100 point shift in the positive direction for Trump.And look at what happened to George W. Bush.He dropped by 40 points from plus 58 to plus 17.So George W. Bush has fallen through the floor since Donald Trump, of course, first really appeared on the political scene, first ran for president for the Republican nomination back in 2015, declaring in June of 2015, while George W. Bush simply put, as I said, his Republican Party is dead.Republican voters are very lukewarm on him.And Republican voters are still very hot to try.

on Donald Trump, and you saw that in George W. Bush's home state of Texas on Tuesday night with John Cornyn, of course, a Bush -era Republican, going down to a historic defeat.The bottom line is that Donald Trump, it's his party across the political map, even in George W. Bush's backyard.

One thing you see in the numbers, one thing we heard from voters on election day there was that they're going with Trump.Trump had accused Cornyn of not being loyal enough, and they were going with Trump when they were going to be supporting Paxton.That begs the question of how loyal do Republican voters want their electeds to be to President Trump?

Yeah, I think when you see this over 100 point shift towards Donald Trump, I mean, that's just crazy.But then you just ask the Republican voters, what do they want?What do they want from their members of Congress?GOP voters want congressional GOP to do more to work with Trump.80%, 4 and 5, just 13 % want him to do more to stand up to Trump.When 80 % plus of the party is with you on any particular question, you know you own the party.

This is, as I said, Donald Trump's Republican Party, and it's George W. Bush has simply put that Republican Party is dead.It's in the graveyard.

market saying about whether or not she will be the nominee?

Yeah, this is kind of those, I guess, never say never types of situations.But I just want to know just how volatile this kind of is, right?Because Chance Whitmer is the 2028 Democratic nominee.You know, at the end of the last presidential campaign, she was one of the frontrunners.She was one of the frontrunners.A 15 % chance is pretty gosh darn good when there's no incumbent running.

There's potentially many people running.Now it's just a 1 % chance.But again, 1 % ain't zero, so it's never say never?

Well, that's what she says after she said she's not running and then said never say never.We don't know if she's made any announcement in the last few minutes.We'll have to stand by for that.Who is the current leader among Democrats for 2028?

Who the heck knows?What is going on out there?I mean, just take a look here.Okay.All right, 2028 Dem primary national poll leaders.There've been one, two, three, four different candidates, four different candidates who have led in a national poll this year.

I have not the faintest idea.This is just an absolute ridiculous show in which we really don't know who the heck is ahead.If you know, you can give me a call, call the CNN hotline, and maybe we might even put you on the air.How unusual is this?How unusual is this?Okay, so, Just take a look at this.

Okay.National early poll leaders getting at least 25 % in the early polls.Democratic race for president.We got no one right now getting at least 25 % of the vote.In 2020, Joe Biden was.In 08 and 16 was Hillary Clinton.

I will note Barack Obama was.It is interesting, though.

It's...We always have a leader at this point.It isn't always predictive who will be the ultimate winner.Gore didn't even run in 2004.And of course, Hillary Clinton did not win the nomination in 2008.So it is interesting in that.

All right.

So, you know, who has a chance?

I mean, who is seen as having a chance?Who's running?How many people are running?

I don't even know how to phrase this question.Everyone, everyone is running.Everyone is running.Take a look here.At least a 50 % chance or greater than 50 % chance of running for president in 2020, according to the Calister Prediction Market.15 different Democrats.

I even called my mom earlier today.She's saying she might run for president.So Democrats, line up, run.There's no early poll leader.It is truly a clown car of historic proportions.

I blew the wind up here, but basically, this is asking who's got a chance of running.And 50 people have a greater percent than 50 % chance?

Exactly.

Everybody has a chance of running, John Berman.Maybe even you.Maybe you'll run for president one day.I can't.I was born in Hawaii.Harry Ann, thank you very much.

I mean, how big is UFC now?

I mean, UFC is huge now.One way to put it into some perspective for you, right, is how many people tuned into the initial event on Paramount+.It was 5 million people who tuned in.To give you an idea, so far in the NHL playoffs this year, from rounds one and two, the average game is getting 3 .3 million average viewership.Now, you know, that's not exactly apples to apples, but it does suggest, and what a lot of the polling suggests as well, is that UFC right now is like the number four sport in America, right?It's football.

baseball, basketball, and then UFC.It's huge.

It's huge.And it's also part of the group, I would say, if I'm going to generalize, that is attracted to this most youngmen, are a big part of what helped get Donald Trump elected this time around.How is he doing with them right now?

Yeah, okay.So, you know, as you mentioned, you know, you look at the polling, you see that, you know, the younger fans, it tends to be younger folks, younger men specifically, who are the big fans of UFC.And Donald Trump, of course, put in a historic performance with them back in the 2024 election for a Republican candidate for president.He actually won them.He won men under the age of 30 by a point.Look at his net approval rating now, though, with them.

Oh, my goodness gracious.

He is. I was literally about to ask you if that was a typo.

No, that is not a typo.Me and my crack crew spend many hours on those slides.And we can tell you that is not a typo.That is a 56 point move against the president of the United States among young men who helped put him over the election.And now he is very much struggling with them.Maybe that's part of the reason why he wants to put an event like this to try and connect with some of them.

But but but.There are people with reservations about kind of how this whole thing is set up.Like, Joe Rogan is openly criticizing having this fight at the White House, which is, according to a sports business journal, UFC, is also paying $700 ,000 to repair the grass that will be damaged by this.That is a real thing, though.Don't giggle.You can't have the grass in the South Lawn be the disaster.

No, you would be a poor one.A very bad one, I would say.I want to play for you what Rogan has said.

The White House thing is odd.I don't like it.I don't like the idea of fighting outside at all.

That, in my opinion, never happens with the UFC.And in fact, in America, before this White House event, there have been zero, zero, zero UFC fights that have actually occurred outside in events in America.Now, there was one overseas, but the bottom line is this is really rare.No wonder Rogan is so perturbed by it.