Trump's polling collapses while Obama's surges & more | Enten roundup

Barack Obama is a rock star when it comes to the living presidents.I mean, just take a look here.He blows every other living president out of the water in terms of their popularity ratings.Net favorability of living presidents.Look at this.Barack Obama at plus 25 points.

The only other living president who's on the plus side of the ledger is George W. Bush, but he's way back there at plus 9 points.The rest of them are all hovering around zero or negative.Bill Clinton at minus 1 point.Then you got Donald Trump at minus 21 points.And then Joe Biden takes the cake at the bottom.Of course, Barack Obama's running mate at minus 24 points.

But the bottom line is this, we are now nearly 10 years from when Barack Obama left the White House, and he is about as popular as he has been at any point since leaving the White House.

I gotta say, he is on a different planet than these two guys down here.That's a 50 point difference there.How about among Democrats?How do Democrats look at Barack Obama versus other presidents?

Yeah, so Barack Obama is a rock star when we're looking at the overall electorate.Why don't we focus in on Democrats?And you know, just the bottom line is this, this.The president's Democrats most admire.Barack Obama is the Democrats' current Abraham Lincoln.Because look at this.

64 % say among all the presidents, the one that they most admire is Barack Obama.And I will say that this mirrors another poll in which you essentially ask, OK, who is the greatest president of all time?And the answer was among Democrats, Barack Obama.But look at this 64%.The next closest are what?Six, five, and five?

Barack Obama is simply On another planet, when it comes to Democrats, they absolutely adore him in a way that they don't do for any other president.

Really interesting to see that.Now, when we talk about his legacy, his legislative legacy, perhaps, of course, there is one thing with the name on it, at least as history remembers it, which is Obamacare, the Affordable Care Act.At the time, you know, it cost him all kinds of congressional seats, cost him all kinds of popularity.What about now?

Yeah, it turns out that distance makes the heart grow fonder.and as Obamacare and the Affordable Care Act has entrenched itself in our health care system, it turns out that It's quite popular.It's quite popular.It's not just Obama that's popular.It's his legislative legacy that's popular.part of our healthcare system.

of all of that.What was the point of all that?Because the American people hated it.And the way you can know that they hate it, just take a look.Trump's net approval rating hits lows for Fox Polls, and this is Fox Polls.In May, he had his lowest ever rating at minus 22 points.

You come into the poll that was released last night, the second lowest ever, one point better, at minus 21 points.Way underwater.And with independents, I know you love when I point out the independents, Johnny B. 55 points.Underwater.I mean, my goodness gracious.This was a political disaster.

No wonder the president wants to move on from it.

He said he didn't want to be Herbert Hoover.Yeah.It may be that voters were already looking at him like that in a manner of speaking.What about on inflation, which may be driving some of these numbers and directly related to the war with Iran?Yeah.

You know, you mentioned Herbert Hoover, the economy, right?That sunk his presidency.Inflation is what is sinking Donald Trump's presidency to all time lows, at least according to Fox.Because just take a look here.Look at Ipsos polling, Trump's not approval rating on inflation.Pre -Alarm War, it was bad, right?

It was 33 points underwater.But then look in the past month, the average, according to the Ipsos polling, look at that, 51 points underwater.There was no president ever before that had any poll in which he was 50 points underwater on inflation or worse, and the average of the Ipsos polling over the last month was 51 points underwater on inflation.The Iran war absolutely drove Trump to new lows on the issue that got him re -elected in the first place, inflation.

Which is why he was seeing Herbert Hoover there.Yeah.What does history tell us about an event like this, a conflict like this, what it might do to your approval long term?

Yeah, if people don't like essentially getting out of the war, right?I mean, just take a look at this.Biden had a negative net approval rating post -Afghanistan withdrawal.All of them.His presidency was simply sunk by it.Now, I'm not saying that's necessarily what's going to happen with Donald Trump, but it is an ominous potential signal for him when, in fact, you have getting out of a situation the American people don't like.

And it may not have been the only reason, but it was a notable date there, to be sure.All right.But the president sees all this.He can see this.He can read the polls here.He knows it.

Gas prices are now below $4 a gallon here.What are the prediction markets saying they will be in the future?

Yeah, if he's not going to be the next Joe Biden, this is the helpful sign for him, right?Chance gas prices this year rise above $5 a gallon.You know, you go back about a month ago, it was a 74 % chance according to the cash prediction markets.Now it's just a 22 % chance.This is the type of stuff that Donald Trump needs to avoid being a new Joe Biden.considerably better than they used to be, and they have the chance to knock off, in fact, Democratic incumbents in Congress.

And part of the reason for that, why we're seeing these Democratic Socialists having such good chances or downright, outright winning nominations, is take a look here.Net favorability among Dems, Democratic Socialists of America.look at that.A plus 17 point net favorability rate among Democrats.That is actually better.That is better than how congressional Democrats are viewed by Democrats.

It just lost four points.So no wonder that Democratic Socialists have such a good chance.Because simply put, they are a better brand at this point than Democrats.Democrats in Congress.

Among Democrats, it's interesting to see who they like more.All right, and you've used this number before.I always find this fascinating.When you compare socialism to capitalism, how are they doing right now?

Yeah, how are they doing right now among Democrats?You see this Democratic Socialist America, more positive than congressional Democrats.And I'll tell you, take a look at the trend line, the favorable rating among Democrats on socialism and Look at this.In 2010, they were about equal.50 % had a favorable view of socialism.51 % said the same about capitalism.

But capitalism has absolutely fallen through the floor.Look at this.It's now just 42 % of Democrats who have a favorable view of capitalism.Socialism, on the other hand, up like a rocket.Look at this.Two in three Democrats have a favorable view of socialism.

So socialism is on the rise among Democrats.Capitalism is on the decline among Democrats.And again, this is part of the longer -term trend in which we are seeing Democratic Socialists doing considerably better among Democrats, electing a mayor right here in New York City, for example.

And as we said, there are primaries next week with Democratic Socialists self -proclaimed on the ballot.What are the prediction markets saying about how they may do?

Yeah, this to me is one of the more stunning trends, right, that I have seen in covering politics over the last 15, 16 years.If you believe the prediction markets, it's not going to just stop suddenly.It may extend into next week.Because just take a look at the chance that Democratic Socialists win in Dem primaries, House primaries here in New York.You go to New York 7th District, right?You got a Brooklyn Borough President who at this point looks like an underdog.

is one of the most stunning divides that we have seen.You know, we're talking about polarization in politics.It even comes down to what you believe July 4th actually is.Like, what does July 4th mean to you?Celebrate America, friends and family time.Among Republicans, what do you see?

You see the clear majority say it's a time to celebrate America, 65%.Among Democrats, however, the plurality disagree.Look at that.What do you see?Friends and family time at 42 % versus just 24 % who say that what it means most to them is to celebrate America.So even on the basic question of what July 4th means to you, we have Republicans on one end saying celebrate America, more of them say that, and Democrats on the other end saying that it means more to them to have time with friends and family.

What do they say about the flag?

Yeah, okay, so.What do they say about the flag?Even on the basic level of flag, look at this.Look at how we have an increasing polarization on this issue.We'll display the flag on July 4th, the American flag.Back in July of 2001, look at this.

You had 68 % of Republicans, 65 % of Democrats saying that they would, in fact, display the flag on July 4th.You come over to this side of the screen, Republicans basically are where they were 25 years ago, right?64%.But look at that Democratic percentage.absolutely plummeting.Just 27 % of Democrats say they will in fact display the flag on July 4th.

Democrats and Republicans in different camps, even on the simple question of displaying the flag on July 4th,a polarization, a split that simply put, did not exist a generation ago.What about the slogan earring, about proud to be an American?Okay, what about this idea, are you proud to be an American, extremely or very proud to be an American?Again, look at this divide, a growing divide on this question.Back in January of 2001, 90 % of Republicans, 85 % of Democrats.

This was after a very contentious 2000 election, keep in mind, right, with George W. Bush coming into the White House.You come over to this side of the screen in 2026, look at this.Again, the Democratic percentage absolutely plummets to just 29 % of Democrats say they're extremely or very proud to be an American.That Republican percentage, the exact same.90 and 90, the Democratic percentage, what is that?That's basically a third of the level that it was just 25 years ago.

I think you're right to point out that this was a time when Democrats might have been feeling badly about the course of the country.Still, 85 % said they were proud to be American.Something's changed.

Something has absolutely changed, despite the fact, a contentious time then, a contentious time now, and yet Democrats, that extremely very proud number, has absolutely plummeted.

One of the subjects that does seem connected to this every generation or so is the issue of burning the American flag, something the Supreme Court periodically weighs in again.What are the British and markets saying about whether this is something they will take up again?

Yeah, the Supreme Court over and over again has said that, yes, you do have a constitutional right to, in fact, burn the flag.The idea, in fact, that the SCOTUS will actually hear a flag -burning case in this upcoming cycle, in this upcoming year, before 2027.that's going to allow that to continue to be the case.