Trump's 'red line' crossed as two US troops killed in Iran conflict: expert | ABC NEWS

The US and Iran have intensified attacks since an interim ceasefire deal fell apart last week.Now, two US service members have been killed in Jordan, raising the possibility of a return to all -out war.We're joined by Aaron David -Miller, former Middle East negotiator for the United States and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Aaron David -Miller, welcome to you.How much did the developments overnight add to the complexity and indeed the precarious nature of the current situation?

Thanks for having me.Look, a great deal.We're already in an escalatory cycle as a consequence of what is a fundamental impasse driven by Iran's determination to maintain, hold, and exert its leverage over the Straits of Hormuz.This is their new nuclear weapon and the Trump administration's determination to try to figure out how to change Iran's calculation through application of an economic blockade and military action.What happened today at Muafiq Salteh, the Jordanian Royal Air Force Base, which is a critically important hub for U .S.

air operations in the region, The deaths of two troops and one missing in action demonstrates that Iran's ballistic missile capacity, because this was a ballistic missile attack, is still quite effective.And it also crosses a red line for the president of the United States, who has said repeatedly that if Americans are killed, and we're now talking 16, three, two, one missing in the last 24 hours, if Americans are killed, the force is going to be overwhelming.So I suspect in addition to an already escalatory cycle, you're going to watch a disproportionate response from the United States.

What of all these American bases are around the Arab states?I mean, the Arab nations want an end to this and now they're seeing this in their backyard.I mean, what's the future there?

Well, these bases are not preemptively imposed on key Gulf states or on Jordan.They represent, frankly, decades of American policy with the acquiescence, the enablement, and the support in the Gulf.And in Jordan we're talking about, particularly in the Gulf, we're talking about authoritarian, repressive regimes that don't allow much room for public debate.And there may be increasing dissatisfaction.The Iranians have struck repeatedly at least 20 American military installations in the Gulf.And they're also in the process, yesterday and today, of striking Kuwait.

It was a desalinization plan and a power generation plan.And you're going to see it's already started.The U .S.dealing with hitting civilian infrastructure.Raising the costs, of course, and the possibilities of war crimes.

I don't think that, frankly, matters to this administration.You have a war of choice right now, which has failed to accomplish any of the goals the administration set out to accomplish.And right now there's no exit ramp for this president.He's stuck.And the Iranians, frankly, have shown no inclination to believe that time is not on their side.We're off now, tragically, unfortunately, for more escalation.

Yeah, Tehran said overnight as well, Aaron David, that they are suspending their commitments to the Memorandum of Understanding deal.Trump also stated that, didn't he, earlier on in the week.Wasn't this all entirely predictable, given the nature of that Memorandum of Understanding?

100 percent, and given the respective positions of the Trump administration.in the United States and the Islamic world.Islamic Republic.Look, a serious negotiation, what we've seen in my judgment are performative negotiations.A serious negotiation can't be done on the back of a cocktail napkin.It can't be done on a cell phone.

It can't be done through intermediaries.These are all characteristics of how the MOU was conceived.And if the president wants to deploy his best friend and his son -in -law basically to negotiate three of the most difficult conflicts in the international system.Russia -Ukraine, Israel -Gaza, and U .S.-Iran, the results are going to be predictable, and the vice president, frankly, not terribly skilled in these matters.

And this will be a tough lift for even the best American negotiators.So what you have now is an escalatory cycle.The prospects of an exit ramp for the United States, I think, are slim to none right now.I don't see a single factor that's going to change either Trump's calculations right now or the Iranians.This is not Vietnam, but it reminds me in 1968 of the quote from Lyndon Baines Johnson, who said he felt like a hitchhiker in a Texas hailstorm.He couldn't run, he couldn't hide, and he couldn't make it stop.

And sadly, tragically, that's where we are right now.

Aaron David Miller, thanks as always for your analysis.Thanks for having me.