Ukraine hits Russia's largest refinery in one of its deepest strikes yet | DW News

Ukraine has been smashing Russian oil refineries for months now, but what's different and truly significant about their latest attack is just how deep inside Russia they have now landed their latest blows, how big and important this target actually was, and finally the timing of the strikes, days before NATO leaders gather in Turkey where President Zelensky will meet President Putin.So let's look at the footage we have so far.Unverified videos circulating on social media appear to show smoke rising from the Omsk oil refinery.Russian authorities have confirmed an attack on the facility, which is Russia's largest.That's one of the reasons this strike is so significant.Drones can be seen shortly before the attack.

Ukrainian officials say the strike was carried out by Long Range drones, most likely FP1 drones with an extended range that you can see there.Another unverified video appears to show a refinery on fire in at least two places.Omsk refinery processes nearly half a million barrels of oil a day and is said to supply every Russian region from its location in southwestern Siberia.It's a location clearly a long way from the front lines.So let's take a look at where exactly the city of Omsk is.It lies around 2 ,500 kilometres from Ukraine's border, close to the Russian border with Kazakhstan.

That makes it one of the deepest Ukrainian strikes since the start of the war.It produces gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene and other petroleum products, including fuel used by the Russian military.According to Ukrainian officials, the strike damaged the refinery's primary oil processing unit.The attack is the latest in Ukraine's campaign against Russia's energy infrastructure.Earlier strikes have already disrupted refinery operations and led to fuel shortages in Ukraine.regions.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky justified the attack on the massive Omsk refinery.

We are responding to Russia's attacks in an absolutely fair way.We are carrying out long -range strikes accurately and effectively, and the whole world can see this.Today, our updated Firepoint drones hit the oil refinery in Omsk, almost 2 ,500 kilometers from Ukraine.Now, Siberia is also within range of our weapons, a significant loss for the Russian economy, an important result for the Ukrainian armed forces.

Right then, with so much to talk about, let's bring in Brian Whitmore, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D .C., and the Eurasia Project.He's also the author of the Power Vertical blog and the host of the Power Vertical podcast.Great to have you with us.Let's start with the significance of this target, if we could.

I tried to lay out the case as to why we thought it mattered so much.How remarkable is this to you, that Ukraine hits this particular target in this particular location?

Well, thanks for having me, Anthony.Now, as you indicated, this is a very important target.But first of all, this was the longest range strike that Ukraine has carried out since the start of the war.This is 3 ,000 kilometers.So this is a very significant strike.And I would add that in terms of the Ukrainian deep strikes, we've had more than 1 ,000 % increase since the start of 2026.

The Omsk refinery is Russia's most technologically advanced refinery.It covers about 10 % of refining capacity.And as you noted in your intro, about nearly half a million barrels a day.Ukraine's now hit all 11.gasoline producing facilities, driving domestic production to 20 % below domestic demand.And it has disabled 42 .7 % of Russia's total oil refining capacity, according to the latest estimates I have seen.

So this is very significant.This strike is significant, but it's significant in the context of a much larger campaign.Ukraine's deep strike capacity has shifted from a tactical military disruption, a nuisance, if you will, to an existential macroeconomic threat for Russia right now.

I've heard you talk about Ukrainian ingenuity before, Brian, the need for them to adapt from the Trump administration, from when they started pulling back on weapons support.Did you ever think they would adapt so quickly and to this extent?

I mean, I am not that surprised.Anybody that spent time in Ukraine and spent time with Ukrainians know that this is a highly innovative nation of tinkers.And I call it the MacGyver nation or the innovation nation.And this ability to innovate on the fly because the drone technology is changing literally by the day in Ukraine.And this ability to innovate On the fly, this has truly been Ukraine's superpower in this war.They've made up for a massive manpower disadvantage with remarkable advances in drone technology.

And they've also hit a Russian vulnerability.And that is that Russian air defenses, the S -300s and the S -400s, they're designed for high altitude, fast moving Western fighter jets and cruise missiles, not these drones, these new drones that kind of navigate using terrain contours, flying at altitudes of like 20 to 50 meters, right?They're almost impossible to detect by Russian radar.air defences.So this innovation has, again, as I said, been Ukraine's superpower in this war.

So even then, with the really strong filters applied to Russian news sources, TV, radio and social media, how much do you think the Russian people now are beginning to appreciate how much this war has now changed for them?

Well, if they don't, they have to believe it if they don't want to, unless they don't want to believe their lying eyes.I mean, it's visible to anybody in any of these, these cities that are being hit.And we've seen St. Petersburg get hit.We've seen Moscow get hit.We've seen Nizhny Novgorod get hit.Now we've seen Omsk get hit, among others.

Beyond that, fuel shortages have hit two thirds of Russia's regions.So if you're going to the gas station to fill up your car and there's no gas, well, it's it's kind of hard for the television to tell you that's not happening.There was an old joke in Russia, the battle between the television and the refrigerator, right?The refrigerator says we're in a crisis and the television says we're on the verge of a great victory.And this is always the battle.I think it's now it's a fight between the television and the gas station, because I think it's going to it's just impossible for Russian people not to see what's happening.

This is really brought the war home to them.

It's perfectly, you know, we see the fuel lines for the average Russians.Is there any evidence that fuel shortages might start to affect the Russian war machine directly or is it potentially more important that you sort of allude to there in your last answer that these really tangible effects on everyday Russians might make Putin's war harder to fight for political reasons?

I think it's both.I don't think these are mutually exclusive.I mean, it is hindering Russia's ability to conduct the war.I mean, Russia's main source of energy.We used to say Russia's economy rests on two pillars, oil and gas.Well, guess what?

Ukraine's hitting both of them.When you take out more than 40 % of the refining capacity, my God, what's that gonna do to the economy?So it's forcing some very, very difficult choices for Putin and his generals.Do you use the fuel that you have left for the tanks at the front or for your own domestic economy?That's a tough bind to be in.And I think this has really turned the tide of the war in ways that have surprise a lot of people.

Those of us that know the Ukrainians, it doesn't surprise us that much.

I heard you say once that you tell your students they have as much to learn about Russia from an episode of The Sopranos as they do from one of your lectures.So how long before these strikes really start to affect the revenues of these various crews that they might start to make Putin's life a little more difficult by extension?

Well, this is this is the this is the the big question right now.I mean, I I say I make that remark about the Sopranos to partially to get my students attention, but also to say that it is a reality there.There Russia's run like a crime syndicate.It's really a crime syndicate masquerading as a state in its internal logic and its incentive structure.all resembles a crime syndicate.And what happens in a crime syndicate when your capos and their crews are suffering from the decisions of the godfather?

I think we know what happens in a crime syndicate.Now, I'm not predicting this is going to turn on a dime, but this has got to put pressure on a system like that.When you add the popular discontent, which despite being a crime syndicate, the Russian authorities do worry about, They fear their people a lot.And so this is going to this is putting multiple pressure points on the economy on the political system on the court politics inside this crime syndicate that isPutinism.It's putting multiple, multiple pressure points that are going to take a toll.

And we see the reaction from Russia, all it can do is lash out and hit civilian targets, which is awful, but it's also a sign of weakness.

So you think, just before we move on, that these Zelensky's long -range sanctions are speaking the language of these syndicates directly to these syndicates?

They absolutely are.And it's not just the long range, what they're what Ukraine is doing with medium range.is pretty remarkable.I mean, they've basically turned the highway connecting Crimea to the Russian mainland into a death trap, basically turning Crimea into an island, if you will.Crimea is going to become a very, very, very big vulnerability for Russia going forward, where before it was an asset.So, this is another thing to keep in mind.

The long range strike is important, but the medium range is where I really see this changing the trajectory of the front lines eventually.

Brian, it's been 16 months since that incredible showdown between Zelensky and Trump in the Oval Office.Trump and Zelensky will now meet at the NATO summit in Turkey.Putin, of course, will not be there.What chance Donald Trump now sees Zelensky in a different light, as a potential winner that he should back?

Well, yeah, I think to use an overused cliche, Zelensky has shown that he has a lot of cards to play right now.And Zelensky is going into this NATO summit in Turkey, not as a not hat in hand as somebody that is wants to consume security from the Western and from from from the Western countries.But it's going to the to the summit, closing drone deals with at least seven NATO countries.So it's going in from a role of an aid recipient to a provider of security.Ukrainedrone technology is one of the hottest military assets in the world right now, and everybody wants a piece of it because they have innovated their way to basically changing the trajectory of this conflict.

Whether that gets through to President Trump is a difficult question to answer.I'm always reluctant to get inside the American president's head.It's a very confusing place where it's hard to see anything.So I'm going to punt on that one.But what he has, but it's the rest of the Western world and the rest of the U .S.

national security establishment certainly sees what Ukraine is doing is incredibly impressed.Ukraine looks like a winner right now.And again, they've changed the trajectory of this war.And it's kind of in the timing on the eve of the NATO summit.It's no accident.I think you pointed that out correctly at the outset.

And with all of that, Ukraine has been under heavy attack itself.Dozens of civilians dead this week alone.Drones, they have interceptors.They do not.You talked about them as a potential or how they have changed into a weapons provider to the world.Is there a realistic chance that Trump gives Ukraine the technical plans and the right to build their own Patriot interceptors, which they seem to need desperately at this point?

That's a good question.What they need in the short term is just those interceptors.I mean, this is the one gap that Ukraine Ukraine has done a remarkable job filling gaps as US support has been pulled back.They've done a remarkable job with the advances in the drone technology, but what they don't have right now is an air and missile defense system that can stop these horrific Russian attacks on civilian centers, this Russian terror campaign against Ukrainian civilians.So, that's the biggest gap in their arsenal.Give them some time and they're going to spin it up, trust me.

But in the short term, Ukraine needs patriots more than anything right now, because that is the one vulnerability that they have, is the depletion of their air and missile defense interceptors.I know they're working on an air and missile defense system, but those things take a long time to spin up.So, we'll see going forward.I certainly hope I would like to see the US give them more patriots now because it's going to save a lot of lives.

One more before I let you go.If I asked you a year ago how this war ends, Brian, how would your answer differ then to your answer now?

I mean, a year ago, things did not look very optimistic for Ukraine.Russia was making slow but steady gains in the front.Now, the front is frozen, and Ukraine is even making gains itself at this point.Ukraine's mid -strike capability has basically changed the nature of the front.not just with Crimea, but elsewhere in the front as well, disrupting Russian logistics.And this, the deep strike capability is putting deep, putting serious strain on the Russian economy and the political system.

So I mean, I am more optimistic today than I was a year ago.I've always said this war is going to be decided on the battlefield.I don't see any magical kind of negotiated solution because Russia's goals are absolutely maximalist and absolutely eliminationist.They want Ukraine to stop existing as a country, and Ukraine obviously wants to continue existing as a country.There isn't a lot of room for compromise.There's no magic formula.

This isn't a real estate deal, right?It's an existential fight.It's going to be decided on the battlefield, but I'm increasingly thinking Ukraine can win that fight.

Brilliant, Brian.Brian Whitmore, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D .I want to tell our viewers as well, you're also the author of the Power Vertical blog and the host of the Power Vertical podcast.We really appreciate your time.Thanks so much.

Thanks for having me.

So we've used Brian's really deep knowledge to build our case as to why we think this particular strike means more than just fuel shortages.It's now time for you to chime in and have your say.Will these fuel shortages lead to Vladimir Putin losing his support among the oligarchs?Please leave your comments down below before you leave as we say goodbye from Berlin for now.