Ukraine launches one of its biggest-ever drone strikes on Russia | DW News

Ukraine has just carried out what looks to be one of the biggest drone attacks on Russia in the war so far, including on Moscow.So as Kiev's military tactics evolve, ramping up its long -range strikes deep inside Russia, how much pressure is the Kremlin under?

Putin has been really making a lot of effort to try and keep the sort of most negative impacts of the war away from people in the urban areas, away from people in the big cities, especially Moscow, to create this illusion that, OK, the war is going on, but everyday life really continues for most people.And the more Ukrainians are able to demonstrate their ability to reach Moscow and Moscow region, the harder that that position is for Putin to maintain.

That's Russia expert Jenny Mathes.More from her shortly on where this war may be heading.But first, let's have a quick look at what happened in Russia overnight.This is social media footage from Moscow hit by a huge barrage of Ukrainian drones.Authorities in the Russian capital said its air defences had shot down more than 550 drones in some 14 regions.They said three people had died in Moscow and one in the southern Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine.

Moscow's mayor said one of the strikes wounded construction workers near an oil and gas refinery and that a number of residential buildings were also damaged.Jenny Mathes is an expert in Russian politics and security, joining us today from Aberystwyth University in Wales.Welcome to you.Tell us, in your view, what's the significance of these strikes today?

So just, you know, overnight obviously the Ukrainian drones have attacked various targets in the region of Moscow.I think the significance is twofold, really.Firstly, the kinds of targets that they are striking are very much related to the military industry and to the oil industry, which, of course, is Russia's major source of foreign income and the major way that it funds the war.So there's a clear military -related purpose to it.But secondly, I think the fact that they're striking in Moscow region, of course, is very symbolic, because With the region of the capital, it demonstrates the reach of Ukraine's drones these days.It demonstrates the threats that Ukraine can pose to the capital and indeed to those who are in it.

Yeah, tell us a bit more about that.I mean, as you're saying, it does signify something that Moscow was hit in such a large way.Is Ukraine, in a sense, perhaps trying to make the war more visible to the capital and to Russians more broadly?

Yeah, absolutely.Because I think up until now, what we've seen largely is that the Russians who are most directly affected by the war are the ones in more remote areas, more remote regions, who are sending the bulk of the soldiers who are fighting in Ukraine and of course, you know, suffering the bulk of the losses, both deaths and also serious injuries.But also, you know, they are the ones who are kind of seeing the everyday impact and those who are living closer to the border.border with Ukraine are seeing or have been seeing a lot more of these kinds of strikes in their areas.Now, the fact that, you know, Moscovites can see the war coming home to them is really important, because Putin has been really making a lot of effort to try and keep the sort of most negative impacts of the war away from people in the urban areas, away from people in the big cities, especially Moscow, to create this illusion that, OK, the war is going on,but everyday life really continues for most people.

And the more Ukrainians are able to demonstrate their ability to reach Moscow and Moscow region, the harder that position is for Putin to maintain.

You were explaining a bit earlier how these strikes today were hitting military and oil infrastructure.Tell us why these are a priority for Ukraine.

So first and foremost, Ukraine's emphasis on attacking targets within Russia has been to try and degrade Russia's ability to continue to prosecute the war.And so over the past, you know, four and a bit years, they have struck, you know, definitely sort of military bases and command headquarters, trying to reduce the number of sort of leaders, senior leaders who are there in the military, but also to strike areas where, you know, military industry is clearly working to support the war.So, you know, in this region, Moscow region, for example, and the attacks included a chemical factory where they produce chemicals that are made, are used in making munitions, you know, oil refineries, again, major export for Russia, but also very important to provide the fuel that fuels, you know, Russian tanks and other vehicles which are in the war.So these are very much sort of military targets, and that is really Ukraine's top priority.And Ukraine also, of course, of course, wants to create a clear sense of division between the military targets that Ukraine is focusing on and the civilian targets that Russia tends to focus on.Because, of course, preceding the Ukrainian drone strikes overnight, there were more than 24 hours of drone strikes, missile strikes by Russia on Ukrainian cities and civilian targets, which have left a huge sort of a cost in terms of casualties, as well as devastation of the infrastructure.

Yeah, I want to get to that in a moment, but just to highlight your point, you're sort of saying...Ukraine's strategy to target this kind of infrastructure has a military strategy behind it, but also a symbolic sense.

Yeah, absolutely.So they want to make sure that Russia's ability to prosecute the war is damaged, but they also want to be seen to be doing that, and they want to be seen to be capable of striking targets deep within the Russian Federation to demonstrate that the war is real not only for Ukrainians, but it's real for Russians too.

Now, we've been showing some pictures from the strikes today.Is this going to rattle Vladimir Putin?How is he going to respond?

Well, I mean, I don't think it will rattle him necessarily because this is part of a larger trend.I mean, this has been happening for some time, you know, for months and months.The Ukrainians have increasingly been targeting, you know, important strategic assets in Russia, including in and around sort of Moscow region.So, yes, they've been particularly striking Moscow region just now, but it's not as particularly new.I think, you know, Putin is is very set in his ways.determined in his emphasis on this war and his targets and his desire to see a certain kind of victory.

And so I don't think it will rattle him necessarily, but it will, of course, demonstrate that it's becoming more and more difficult for the Kremlin to keep the narrative that they've been producing over time, to keep society in Russia sort of quiet and willing to just accept what happens.I think the higher prices Russians have to pay in terms of their own security and the feelings of danger, the more difficult it's going to be for Putin.

Let's talk specifically about drones right now.Ukraine's expertise with drones is well documented and these attacks are happeningmore and more.What's that down to do you think?Is it better drone technology or is it Ukraine perhaps being more focused about what it wants to target?

Well, I think it's a bit of both.I think what we've seen over the course of this war is that Ukrainians have been very good at innovation.So they've been very entrepreneurial.They have responded very quickly to changes in battlefield conditions.They have introduced these wide variety of different kinds of drones.So there isn't just one type of drone.

There are different sizes, different capabilities used for different things.The first person viewer drone with the very small ones that are used closer to the front lines, the larger ones, the ones that are used at sea and so on.And so what Ukraine has done is really develop its military industry and its technological base to ramp up the production of these kinds of drones.And it's estimated that more than 90 % of the drones that Ukraine actually deploys in the war are produced at home.And most of them are produced using domestically made components as well.So what Ukraine has done is really develop its capabilities to be much more independent in terms of being able to produce weaponry and use it, rather than being dependent entirely upon Western imports, which come, of course, often with permissions attached and strings attached.

So it's been a capacity issue, I think, an innovation issue to a large extent.And those things have enabled Ukraine to be more diverse, shall we say, in the way that they deploy them and target those weapons.use droneslarge military industry.It is producing a large volume of drones, but it's also producing a large volume of military equipment.But a big difference is that a lot of the drones and drone components and designs are coming from abroad, especially from Iran and China.

Those are two really key suppliers.And Russia also gets Western -made components through third parties trying to go around the sanctions that have been imposed on Russia.So Russia is producing a large volume of drones, undoubtedly, and will continue to do so.But it's much more dependent upon other countries to create those drones by using different kinds of components that come from different places.

In light of what you've just said, Russia has been attacking Ukraine, particularly Kiev, very heavily with drones and missiles this past week.What does that tell you about Russia's ability right now to sustain the pressure that's coming from Ukraine?

So Russia has continually had a big advantage when it comes to the sheer quantity of weapons that it can draw upon.It can draw upon old Soviet stocks, as we've seen over the past several years.It can draw upon its own new production.And it can draw upon aid from other countries.And so if you just sort of set the two countries side by side in terms of capacity, Russia is still outproducing Ukraine in many respects.However, and certainly Russia is demonstrating its ability and its willingness to use those weapons.

And so the kinds of pattern that we saw in the really devastating attacks by Russia on Ukraine this past week, demonstrate that, you know, they're willing and able to target, you know, civilian target cities and civilian infrastructure, willing and able to do this at a very large scale.But, of course, you know, the question is, does this really have an impact on Russia's ability to gainground in the war?Does it have an impact on Russia's ability to achieve its targets and to achieve its aims?And so far, there's a big question mark over that, because Russia is pursuing very much the same sorts of tactics and strategies.And it's not really producing the results for Russia that it did in a few of the earlier phases of the war.

And given that question mark that you've just outlined, how do you assess Russia's overall momentum in the conflict right now?

So I would say that Russian momentum on the battlefield has really slowed down very, very significantly.So Russia is really sort of inching forward.And in many places it's being or in some places it's being pushed back by the Ukrainians.And in other places it's being pretty much held steady.So the Ukrainians are very cleverly using their drones in certain areas of the front lines to prevent you know, massed groups of Russian equipment and tanks and other kinds of military equipment from moving forward.And so the Russians have had to adapt to that by sending, you know, small groups, maybe even in twos and threes of soldiers on motorcycles and bicycles and horses and so on to try and get around some of the traps that the Ukrainians have set for them.

So the result is that it has really slowed Russian progress.on the battlefield to a crawl.And so, you know, Russia, I think there have been estimates that if Russia were to continue to gain ground on the basis that it has done, it would take it, I don't know, 100 years to, you know, to make really significant gains in Ukraine.So Russia's progress has really slowed.Its tactics have not been successful in actually continuing the momentum that it has had at certain points in the war.You know, it doesn't show any signs of really taking off.

all of the Donbass, which has clearly been Putin's goal for quite some time.

And what impact are these setbacks having on the world?

Well so far it looks as though they're having no impact whatsoever.So you know Russia and Putin in particular are very determined and very dogged in their pursuit of their goals that they haven't really changed since the beginning of the mass invasion.And their tactics have changed somewhat, but not very significantly.So they still respond to any sort of setbacks with massive attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and cities.They are still struggling to make progress on the ground.And yet they don't show any signs of wanting to amend their goals or wanting to to compromise in any way to try and get some kind of a peace deal or even a lengthy ceasefire.

And indeed, what we've seen recently is Russia is changing the rules for those who want to become Russian citizens in the breakaway region of Moldova called Transnistria to make it easier for people to get Russian passports.And the assumption is that what's behind this is actually a desire to try and get more people into the Russian military, because recruitment is not keeping pace with casualties.time maintaining that momentum of keeping the troops flowing through the recruiting offices.And so they're looking for fresh ways of bringing in more people to pursue the war, but pursuing the war in very much the same sorts of ways that they have been.

Donald Trump said recently he believes a deal to end the war, which you were just talking about, is close.That's something he's tried to do multiple times in the past, but he hasn't been able to.What are your thoughts on his comments?

I think that he is very optimistic, shall we say, when it comes to thinking about the possibilities for a short term peace.I mean, both Ukraine and Russia show no signs of thinking that, you know, majormajor compromises are on the cards for them.They're both very confident about their ability to continue to pursue the war and to make gains.And so, you know, we're not really in a position where one or both sides thinks that there's no point in pursuing the war any further, that they're not going to get anything.And that is usually the situation that you're in when two sides sit down at the negotiating table and are serious about trying to find an end to the war.

We're not there yet, and we're probably not anywhere close to there.But I think Donald Trump really wants to end this war.He wants to get credit for that.And so he talks it up every opportunity that he gets.

Dr Jenny Mathes, expert in Russian politics and security from Aberystwyth University in Wales.Thank you so much for your insights today.

Thank you.

Now, let's hear from you.How significant do you think these drone strikes today are and what their impact on the direction of Russia's war in Ukraine could be?Let us know in the comments.And if you haven't already, don't forget to subscribe.I'm Jared Reid.Thanks for watching.