Ukraine regains momentum as Russia suffers battlefield losses | DW News

Russia's war with Ukraine has raged for more than four years and has killed hundreds of thousands on both sides.It's a David and Goliath battle that most thought Ukraine could never win.But it keeps starting to gain the upper hand.Even EU foreign policy chief Kayakhala says the dynamics of the war are changing in Ukraine's favour.EU defence ministers are meeting today to discuss how to further support Ukraine.

Through the fog of this war, it's difficult to say who's winning and who's losing, as the conflict stretches well into its fifth year.But many experts and think tanks believe Ukraine could be turning the tide in its favour, and EU politicians agree.

Obviously, the Ukrainian defence plan is working.We've been seeing during the last couple of months that Ukraine has been able to gain more territory than they've been losing.We also take note that the Russians have a great challenge in regenerating their forces.We also see that the Russian economy is at the ropes.

" Ukraine has increased its use of long -range drones to penetrate deep into Russian territory.Kremlin watchers say that was the main motivation for the downsized World War II victory celebrations on May the 9th.Fears of drone attacks meant there was none of the usual military hardware on display, replaced by a video presentation.And while the conflict continues to drain the Russian economy, Ukraine is turning its new expertise in drone warfare into a global economic opportunity.European and Gulf states are interested in that knowledge and are willing to pay for it.

Twenty countries are already cooperating with Ukraine at different levels on drone deals.With some, political agreements have been reached, contracts with manufacturers are being prepared, and Ukrainian military expertise is already yielding results.With others, political agreements will be signed soon.Preparations have also begun for a drone deal with Canada, which is an important expansion of security cooperation.

Diplomatically, things are also looking up for Kyiv.After the removal of Hungary's pro -Kremlin Prime Minister Viktor Orban in elections last month, the EU has been able to release a 90 billion euro loan to Kyiv to help fund its defence.

And earlier I spoke to Lawrence Friedman.He's a professor emeritus of war studies at King's College London.I asked him if he agreed with recent reports that the tide is indeed changing in favor of Ukraine.

Yes, I think I do.One has to be very careful because there have been periods of great optimism and great pessimism in the course of this war, and battles are very difficult to predict.But we can see that the Russian offensive has stalled.They're expected to be further ahead in terms of their advance into Ukraine than they are.Your story made clear the various setbacks they've suffered in terms of Ukraine getting funds from the EU, the quality of their drone warfare.There's probably more long -range drones hitting important targets in Russia at the moment than Russian drones hitting targets in Ukraine.

Although, of course, the Russians direct their missiles and drones directly at cities.One has a sense that there's greater confidence on the Ukrainian side.They withstood a difficult winter and now they're making progress.So, yeah, I think there is a shift.

Now, you've described this moment in the Ukrainian war as an inflection point.What makes you say that?

Well, I think we've been waiting for some time for a moment when the various problems of the Russianhave got, both in terms of to Why I think this is changing is that argument is becoming much harder to make now.In a sense, sorry, just to conclude, in a sense, if he wants a ceasefire, he has to have it at least on the line of contact as it is, not where he would like it to be.

Now, in the early years of the war, we all remember that Ukraine constantly complained, and rightfully so, it wasn't getting enough weapons support.Has that changed fundamentally?

Well, what's changed as Russia, as Ukraine is building a lot of its own weapons?It's now, again, as your story made clear, a world leader in the development of drones for all sorts of purposes.So in 2022, it was very dependent upon support from outside.And of course, up to the beginning of last year, pretty dependent on some high -level American equipment.It sort of weaned itself away from that and now produces well over half, 60 % or so of what it needs.So I think that's been the most important shift.

And what is also the case is what it develops is now very much geared to the demands of the battlefield.It's very innovative in that regard.It sees a problem and it tries to address it.Whereas if you're trying to get equipment for aoverseas then you have to take what's available.

Now do you get the sense that Russia recognises that Ukraine is starting to turn the tide?

Well, we had this interesting case of the 9th of May victory parade to celebrate the great patriotic war, which was a bit of a fiasco.Their language was truncated, very few foreign dignitaries turned up.They were clearly petrified of some sort of drone attack disrupting the whole affair.Putin declared a ceasefire.in order to prevent that.So I think, and his speech, I thought, was pretty lacklustre.

He looked tired and uncertain.So yeah, I think it is coming through and for the first time you've seen a slight Russian movement on their conditions for a peace process and so on, including readiness to meet Zelensky, not as he suggested before in Moscow, but where it might suit Zelensky.But he still says only to agree Russian terms.

So if Russia sees that Ukraine is getting the upper hand, what will be its response?

I think what you'll see Russia trying to do is to persuade Trump, who's obviously somewhat preoccupied with Iran at the moment, to return to this and push hard on what the Russians thought the Americans had agreed to, which is that Ukraine should hand over the rest of Donetsk.Because I think there'll be a degree of urgency on the Russian side, and they may have to accept something less.But the problem is that Trump It's