Ukrainian drone commander explains momentum shift in war | The Security Brief

In April, and for the second time this year, Ukrainian forces recaptured more territory than they lost.Russian troops are dying faster than Moscow can replace them.And by all accounts, the Russian leader is now so fearful for his own safety, he's spending more time underground, shuttling between bunkers.

For the first time in the history of modern warfare, Soldiers have surrendered to a machine.Three Russians laid down their weapons and raised their hands to an unmanned ground vehicle, guided by artificial intelligence.We've been given exclusive access to one of those Ukrainians behind these capabilities.She's the first woman to command an all -female drone strike unit.

We'll take you inside the low -tech, high -speed arms race that is giving Ukraine more than a fighting chance.Stay with us.This is The Security Brief.Russia's Victory Day parade on the 9th of May in the midst of a three -day ceasefire looked notably different.There was no military hardware, there were no tanks, there were no ballistic missiles.It felt edgy, something had shifted.

Something has shifted, you're absolutely right.And I think a big part of that is a huge shift in morale.Now, you know, having been on operational deployments, morale is quite a hard thing to quantify.But regular conversations with the armed forces of Ukraine would suggest that morale is increasing with the AFU.And quite frankly, from the reports that we've seen through the floor with Russian forces.You've just got to look at the losses that Russia has suffered in this war since 2022.

We're talking 100 ,000 military vehicles, 12 ,000 tanks, 4 ,700 ballistic missiles.They're going backwards, is what my assessment is.And at the heart of that assessment is territory.Now, there are quantified fears that President Zelensky can come to power.a kinetic strike now on Moscow and beyond, and that's due to Ukraine's organic, what's called deep strike capability, which puts not just Moscow, but thousands of kilometres beyond that, and the Russian leadership, it puts them right in the crosshairs.So what does that look like then?

at the front line.Let's take a look at some maps.This is going to surprise you.This here is a map showing Russian gains at the end of March 2022.So we're talking about just over a month inside the invasion.The source here is the Institute for the Study of War and Critical Threats.

Now on this map you can see the red that indicates Russian forces, The striped areas are where they're advancing.Russia invaded Ukraine on February the 24th.So, again, about a month in, and we're talking a majority of control in these areas, not total control.Now, at the bottom, we can see Crimea.That was taken by Russia in 2014, as we know.But then as we move up, I want to look at these Kioblasts, or regions, as we call it, moving up from Crimea in the south.

So just above Crimea, you have Kherson, Then as you go to the right, you've got Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk.And then right at the easternmost point, you've got Luhansk.And as we move north of that, coming back west again, you've got the regions of Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv.So that's a significant amount of dominance in just over one month of aggression, with Ukrainian forces desperately on the back foot, although managing to protect Kiev from the Russian assault in the first three days.

So how does that change?to the picture we have today.

Right, let's take a look at another map and the honest answer to that is if you're Putin, yeah, not well at all.The orange represents claimed Ukrainian counterattacks.Russian forces are spread thin in the north.So now it's almost a reversal in the north.This is four years on, or over four years on.And Putin has been forced to consolidate on the four main contested areas that we see today in the southern area.

So Kazan, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk.The human sacrifice has been brutal in this war.But it's also been punishing for Ukraine.Let's take a look at the numbers.And they're quite horrendous, actually.The casualties at the top, what that includes are not just casualties, but prisoners of war and people that have been killed.

So you're looking at 1 .2 million on the Russian side and 50 % of that on the Ukrainian side.Now, if you look at the soldiers killed, which is included in that casualties figure, that 1 .2 million, that 600 ,000, Russia have lost an estimated 325 ,000 and Ukraine 140 ,000.But it's getting worse for Russia.From November 2025, to January 2026, so two months.Deaths in casualty total nearly 100 ,000 in two months alone.That's for Russia.

And to the end of March, so the first three months of 2026 alone, the Russian army, according to President Zelensky, has lost 89 ,000 troops killed or seriously wounded.So that number, 189 ,000, Russia has lost in five months.

How does Russian recruitment keep up?with that level of losses?

I think the simple answer is it can't and it doesn't.According to Zelensky, Moscow's target for the entirety of 2026 in terms of recruitment is 409 ,000 troops, nearly half a million.That's a significant amount.Ukrainian intelligence, however, says that in the first quarter of 2026, Russia managed to only recruit just over 20 % of that figure, so around 80 ,000 people.You've got to remember that this puts an enormous strain on the Russian Federation because these people are not coming from Moscow or St. Petersburg, they're coming from Central Asia, they're coming from the stands.Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan.

So they're paying a disproportionate price for this.

What are the key advances in Ukraine that have delivered those sort of advancements on the front line?

Yeah, there's definitely a number of critical advancements that have had a major impact.The first one is the obvious one.It's drones.We've been covering drones in Ukraine forever.Low tech, mass produced and relatively cheap.airborne unmanned systems but they're not just airborne now.

We're talking about unmanned seaborne systems, unmanned ground vehicle systems or UGVs as they're calling them.So let's take a look at those in turn.The airborne unmanned systems and you can split those into two.We're looking at unmanned aerial systems, drones or counter drone and one -way attack drones and you This is the Shahed 136.

Which we've seen plenty of in Iran.

Yeah.I mean, we've covered it at length.Explosive warhead in the front, around 20, 60 kilograms.And then a very, very basic propeller engine in the back.Now, this is an Iranian design.The blueprint was passed to the Russians, who have developed a very similar system called the Geran

-2. Pretty much the same design.And what we've been seeing used extensively by the Iranians in the Persian Gulf.I've had lots of people commenting on the posts and coming back to me who have never heard of the Shahadah.And we're reporting on it in Ukraine.And it took the Iran conflict for people to cue in and go, what is that?And realize just how disruptive and deadly these things are.

Now, what the Russians have been doing is they've now been evolving that Shahadah 136 into what's called a Shahadah 238.So I think we've got a pretty good picture.I think we've got an image here on the screen of the, this is called the Geran3. Now it looks very, very similar.The warhead has however been replaced with a 50 to 90 kilogram warhead, so almost double the impact.And then you can see on the back there, you can see that push propeller on the previous Shahed has now been replaced by a jet engine.

And what that allows is it gives the Shahed 238, it gives it better range and more destructive capability when it comes to that water.Do we know how fast that goes?Yeah, it goes up to about 400.Well, this one is significantly faster than the Shed 136.That travels about 120 miles an hour.This can go double that.

The use of these drones by Russia is growing in line with Russia's increasing ability to mass manufacture them.China's assisting with that production.So let's look at some recent data points.So in April this year alone, 6 ,583 drones were launched towards Ukraine.And a massive, here's the figure, 89 % were shot down.5 ,861.

It is extraordinary.When you look at the potential for Europe to counter that type of threat, it would get nowhere near that.Now, in contrast, I think we've got, so that's just drones.We've got another graphic which shows ballistic missiles.And in April, 141 ballistic missiles and cruise missiles were launched, and 89 of those were shot down.So around 63%.

So less, but still significant.

So there's clearly an enhanced ability to shoot down the drones versus the cruise missiles?

Yeah, it's a great question.There's an obvious cost to benefit ratio here to what we're seeing.And as we've discussed plenty of times before, the Russian Shahed 136 style drones, the Garand 2, they're about 35 ,000 a unit to produce.But the drone to missile ratio that you spoke about is around 47 to 1.which is really important.So obviously Ukraine does have a ballistic cruise missile threat, but it's going to be focusing most of its energy on countering the mass -produced drone threat.

Let's look at what the Ukrainians have built in terms of the interceptors, because it seems to me there's a step shift on either side.And the Ukrainians have done very well at countering the threat they face.

It's staggering.The evolution of the armed forces of Ukraine to counter the significant amount of drones that have been coming across, which they didn't have in 2022 or 23.But the evolution has occurred rapidly.They range from around $1 ,000 to $2 ,500 per unit.They're fast, they're accurate, mass produced.What's that doing?

Cut through jamming.So basically, that drone is an interceptor drone.It's just airborne, and they're probably doing a bit of a test on that.But these things basically get airborne and accelerate.to about 200 to 300 miles an hour rapidly, which means that it's got a closing velocity on the drone.And it's also got a thermal seeker, which is artificial intelligence assisted for terminal guidance.

So it can either zone in autonomously on the target, or it can be manually done through a controller.And they're small.A soldier can literally, if you can bring that video back up again, a soldier can literally put one of those things in a duffel bag.

It picks up on the heat signature of the jet engine.

Yeah, so it can be an IR seeker, infrared, or it can be electro -optical.

So they're managing a system with both.And there's a warhead underneath it?On the tip.

You can see on the top, you've got the tip, and then you've got the four props at the bottom there, which are giving it propulsion.

Just so we know what we're looking at.But I mean, what is really interesting to me is that after the Iran war, suddenly everyone's sitting up.Everyone, of course, is paying due respect to the Ukrainians, which has not been there up until this point.And I hear from you, because you travel out to this region a lot, that the Europeans, the Americans, are suddenly in country, in Ukraine, because they want to learn.

Yeah.And the big reason for that alsodown to money.You're looking at, in the Persian Gulf, for example, you're looking at Patriot interceptors, of which over 2 ,400 were used in the first 30 days.They're $4 million a unit.So when you're contrasting that against one of these drone interceptors that cost 1 ,000 that Ukraine has designed, you can see why US Persian Gulf states are absolutely are hell -bent on getting their hands on this capability.

The Russian capability has advanced when it comes to the Shahed and the increasing speed.Are we seeing an increasing speed on the other side from the Ukrainian drones they're manufacturing?

Yeah, so let's take a look at the threat first.Russia are now making what's called the Garand 5, which analysts say is based on the Iranian Qara drone, which I think we've got a picture up here, which looks like that.It's an evolution of the Garand 3.It's got, as you say, a very powerful jet engine.

So that's faster again?Yeah, so it goes up to nearly 400 miles an hour.Which speaks to that step -by -step advancement that I'm talking about.

Yeah, so potentially that Garand 5 can currently outrun the present inventory of interceptors that Ukraine has.So Ukraine is now having to evolve their own interceptors by increasing the speed to deal with that Garand 5.

Over what time period are we talking?

We're talking months.So speaking to analysts, specific analysts on this technology advancement, the technology is outdated every six weeks.What?Six weeks, which blew my mind.If you think about the time it takes to procure a major asset, like a Typhoon aircraft or a warship, you're talking 15 to 20 years.And what the Ukrainians are doing is they're evolving their capability every six weeks to make sure that they've got a layered air defense system.

It's phenomenal.Now, one thing I would add is that Russia is increasing its capability, but with that comes a cost.So the ground free that we looked at, that's about $900 ,000 to $1 .4 million.So significantly higher than the Shahed 136, which is $35 ,000.

That's interesting then, isn't it?Because that actually then comes back to the cost benefit ratio, which Russia has to consider.If they're constantly being shot down, Why would you send them?

Right.And it all comes back to the cost -benefit ratios that we've been speaking about since the Iranian conflict.So the reality is that the threat isn't going to morph into complete get -around fives.What it'll do, it'll be a composite threat using the Shahed -136s.And the tactics that the Russians will be using is that they'll launch the Shahed -136s in volume, which then the interceptors will take out, and then bringing up the rear will be the Guran -5.

Can we talk about where we started?The Victory Day parade.There's clearly an anxiety about the drones incoming, but also the deep strike capability that Ukraine is developing.Initially, they were quite reliant on the United States, but not anymore.

Yeah, exactly.They were reliant on the United States for, we spoke about this, the HIMARS, which are the launchers, and then the ATAKMS, which are the missiles that go in them.But the big problem with that is that while they had the capability, the Biden administration were constraining Ukrainians from striking initially any targets inside Russia and then any just inside Russia.So what Ukraine's done now is it's completely taken matters into its own hands, which they had to.in order to defeat the threat.So they've stepped up to the plate and they've started to rapidly develop its own unmanned strike and deep strike capability.

Namely, FP drones.FP stands for Firepoint.It's the company that makes them.It's the Ukrainian company that makes them, I should say.And then we can take a look at an image here.This is an FP drone that has a range of over a thousand kilometers.

But I just want the viewers to look at that because you can see the size of this thing compared to the drone itself.the three Ukrainian soldiers.

Is this what they're using to strike the oil terminals?

Yeah, this is all of the deep strike.And whilst it's relatively big to a human, it's still really hard for a Russian S -400 missile system, for example, to target.So it's creating a major problem, as you say, with all infrastructure, with military air bases and with leadership.But it's not just this FP drone.Ukraine have been developing a capability called the Flamingo.It's a deep strike missile.

I think we've got another graphic of the Flamingo here.This is a launch of the Flamingo.Now, Ukraine is producing these.It's got a range of 3 ,000 kilometers and can carry an 1100 kilogram warhead.The warhead that this can carry is 20 times that of a Shahed and has twice the size of the warhead that the American Tomahawk land -attack missile has, and twice the range.So it's a significant capability that the Ukrainians have been developing.

And in April this year alone, Ukraine launched 7 ,000 long -range drones targeting Russian industrial bases, military sites like refineries, air bases, et cetera, hitting locations up to 1 ,750 kilometers away from the Ukrainian border.Now to put that into perspective, Russia's around 450 to 500 kilometres from the Ukraine border.So you can see why Putin's agitated.

Ukraine's a different adversary to the one they faced in 2022, that much is clear.It's not our reporting that Putin is shuttling between underground bunkers, but it would stand to reason because, of course, the Ukrainians have very good intelligence in Moscow.They've hit some of the generals.Why would Putin not be taking extra precaution?

Well, from everything you just said, he knows he's definitely not immune.Reports indicate that he is seen in public less and less.Open source intelligence suggests he's moving between secure bunkers because of this evolving deep strike capability.And again, these Ukrainian long -range one -way attack drones, OWA they're called, have already killed several high -ranking Russian officials inside Moscow.And because Ukraine is striking these ore refineries deep inside Russian territory, Putin knows Ukraine not just has the intelligence or the reach, but it's got the will, the morale's up.So the question is, for Putin, is whether he's on that Ukraine target set, and that's a big risk to take.

You've made some really interesting contacts on your visits to Ukraine, and one of them that you've been speaking to this week is called Daria, callsign Hilka.She's the commander of an all -female special forces drone strike unit in Ukraine.Extraordinary.Formerly a sniper, now a drone operator.What is she saying about that capability?

And the viewers are going to find the interview fascinating.Daria is the epitome of how the Ukrainian people are responding to Russia's aggression, how they're stepping up to the plate.She used to be a sniper, as you say, in the Ukrainian forces, but she decided to switch her focus to drones as the war continued to shift to the skies from a technological perspective.She works mostly with the one -way attack strike drones.So they've got a range of about 50 to 60 kilometers.Is that frontline or beyond the frontline?

So it's in that sort of, that area.

In that stripy red area.

Exactly, exactly that.But, you know, as a consequence of that, because she's not operating drones that are deep strike, you know, herself and her teams are right in the middle of that threat zone from Russian drones targeting the operators.She spoke to us from Ukraine and we asked her how drone technology, I think this is the big question I want to ask, was how drone technology has changed over the course of the war, because it has, and howthose changes have played out on the battlefield.Let's take a listen.Fascinating stuff.

At the moment, continuous improvements are being made.New communication options are being explored, including digital communication and the use of Starlink systems, which are increasingly installed on board.This helps ensure stable connectivity despite obstacles such as radio horizon.In other words, in areas where terrain make it difficult for a drone to operate properly, those limitations no longer exist.We now integrate artificial intelligence.It allows you to identify a target in advance, even when it is not yet visible to the human eye.

It helps to guide the aircraft onto the target, correct its approach, calculate the attack angle, speed and so on.Each time we go on rotation, which lasts several months, by the time we return, something new has already been introduced.These are technologies that are absolutely not standing still.If we talk about traditional combat vehicles, like tanks or armoured vehicles, they are essentially still the same as they were 20 years ago, maybe with some modernisation.But drones are changing literally every week.It is very interesting to observe.

It is also interesting to work with these systems.Drones have essentially changed warfare as we know it.We are now fighting a war of the future, and somewhat surprisingly, it is much closer to the Oscar -winning film Mad Max than to any traditional war movies we are used to.I constantly emphasize that every service member today must know how to operate a drone, just as they must know how to use firearms or follow the march protocol, that is, tactical medicine.This is very important because drones are the future.They are, first of all, cheap, and second, highly effective.

Tank battles no longer really exist, and you almost never see armoured vehicles at the line of contact anymore, because they simply don't make it there.Everything is being destroyed by drones.A war like this has never existed before.In fact, this can also be seen during NATO exercises, where Ukrainian service members and drone operators participate, demonstrating results that NATO are not even prepared for.

You know, a remarkable human that's doing remarkable things.

Yeah, and that, as you say, that all -community response to what they're facing.

She talks about the aerial drones, but she from time to time here on the channel we focused on what they do out at sea and the sea drone technology is it's truly remarkable yeah um and again you know i i think operating in the sea environment you could argue is is much harsher than operating in the air just because you've got the corrosive components of the salt water let's start with the sea drones um we can see an image here of what they look like.This is called the Sea Baby.It's got a machine gun mounted on it, but you can also pack a lot of explosives into these drones that detonate on impact with a vessel.Open source intelligence indicates Ukraine has used these uncrewed surface and subsurface vehicles to hit 20 Russian vessels from the Black Sea Fleet, destroying around 10 to 11.The subsurface systems are particularly lethal.So they have a subsurface variant of what I've just showed you there on the screen.

I want to bring up some footage here from 2025.Can we just bring that up?Right, let's freeze frame that.This is from the Security Service of Ukraine.It's called the SBU, the Security Service, which shows an underwater drone named the Underwater Sea Baby, so a variant of the drone I've just showed you, attacking a Russian submarine in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.So if you look at the screen, look very to the left.

and then up a little bit and you can just see the turret.

Oh yeah, I see it.Okay, on the far pier.

Yeah, so just below you can see that vessel with the large turret.So just below that.And keep your eyes on that for a second.Now, just before we play the footage, the SBU said this target was a Kilo -class submarine.And why that's important is because the Kilo -class, the Russian Kilo -class submarine, has been dubbed the Black Hole due to its ability to evade detection by sonar.So it's a high -value target.

Now, let's play the footage.Keep your eyes on the top left hand of the screen.remembering that this drone is under the water, and then you can see that huge explosion.Now, the SBU said that this Kilo -class submarine suffered critical damage and was actually put out of action.

A lot of ships in that dock from the Black Sea Fleet.A lot of vulnerable ships.And they can't move?

Well, no, they're in port at the moment, so they're effectively sitting ducks.

Right.Let's come back to where we began, right at the top of the programme.The first ever recorded footage of soldiers surrendering to an uncrewed system, an unmanned system.

Yeah, I mean, that's a significant statement that you've just said there.And I think people who follow the news will have seen this, but people that don't, you're going to find this fascinating.These are three Russian soldiers laying down their weapons and surrendering to a UGV, an unmanned ground vehicle.They're going to take off the weapons and then they're lying on the floor.So surrender.Now, the vehicle that was used for this If we can just bring up an image, it's called a TW 7 .62.

So it's an uncrewed tracked ground vehicle.It's a reconnaissance vehicle, but it has a machine gun fixed on the top of it.And it's using artificial intelligence for autonomous detection, capture, and tracking of targets.So engagements between unmanned ground vehicles and ground forces, this is just the beginning.And it's impossible to predict how this type of warfare will evolve.And I know that most UGVs have been destroyed by FPV drones, but they will also develop the defensive technologies of these as well.

I mean, there were jammers, for example.

I'm presuming that that vehicle has some sort of spatial awareness because a frontline position like that is a very complicated environment.

Yeah, and that's a great point because We're talking about the hardware of drones, whether airborne, seaborne, or unmanned ground vehicles.But it's the ecosystem that is making this work so effectively.So drones need to know where the threat are, that spatial awareness that you're talking about.And Ukraine has developed what's called a battlefield management tool, a piece of software, and we don't have an image of it.But it basically fuses the massive amount of intelligence from human, IMMINT, and ELINT.

So that's an artificial intelligence system that humans are overseeing but the vehicle is working autonomously within the environment that it sees.

Yeah, so what that system does is identifies a target And then through the ecosystem, it will recommend the closest counter that target to expeditiously take that out.And when I say target, I'm talking about Russian soldiers.I'm talking about drones.The whole array of threats from Russia, this battlefield management tool is being useful.

Just very quickly.

Just one thing before we go.The American secretary of the military has recently stated that they've identified that Delta system.It's called Delta.and the Americans don't have anything like it.So the Americans have got the rights on that tool as well.

Right.And when it comes to the Americans, and this is where there's a vulnerability for the Ukrainians, they're hugely reliant on Starlink because that is communicating with someone and presumably it's Starlink that is the link.

Yeah.Can't underestimate the importance ofSpaceX's Starlink when it comes to being able to to develop these type of military operations.It enables command and control, We heard from Daria, drone operations, it's used extensively in artillery coordination.So it underpins all of those operations with that situational awareness.But it's not just the military side.

Starlink's being used by Ukraine in hospitals, firefighting capability, for example.But the big problem with it, as we know, is that it's owned by Musk, a private company that can pretty much turn it off whenever it wants.