US on the verge of significant strategic defeat against Iran: fmr negotiator | ABC NEWS

Well, let's get more now on Iran's warning to the Gulf states that any new U .S.strikes will trigger retaliation attacks across the region.Aaron David Miller is a former Middle East negotiator for the U .S.and he joins us now from Maine.

Aaron, thank you very much for your time.Glad to be here.Just how close do you think this Aman -Iran deal is?

You know, I've been around negotiations most of my professional life and until we see a text, I think it's really very difficult to say.Clearly, there are three stages here.The Iran and the Omanis need to come to some sort of agreement.The Gulf states need to decide whether or not they can acquiesce or even support such an accord.And then once the text is made public, the administration is going to have to weigh in to see whether or not they're able to accept it.But again, my confidence level here is not entirely high these days.

I mean, look at the Memorandum of Understanding signed on June 17.Within six weeks, it had cratered precisely because it was put together in a hurry with radically different interpretations by Iran and the administration as to what each side's requirements and obligations were.So whatever document is produced—and again, I've worked and voted for Republicans and Democrats, so you can consider this a partisan comment if you'd like—the United States is on the verge of really suffering a significant I call it a strategic defeat, maybe, that we may actually have to acquiesce in Iran's leverage and control, if not its sovereignty, over who or what gets through the straits of Hormuz.This is truly, I think, a major setback, not just for the United States, for the Gulf states, for the international economy, and for freedom of navigation.and the common space around the world.

Given that framework and the setting for which these negotiations, if we can call them that, are taking place, just how powerful is Oman becoming in the region with respect to negotiating and being a broker?

The Omanis?Well, the Omanis are a party to this.And, you know, in the Middle East, geography is destiny.And while Oman, I think, probably would prefer a different set of arrangements that didn't grant sovereignty to Iran over a part of the straits, they may have no choice.This regime, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps regime, and you've seen a shift from divine power.We still haven't heard from Ali Khamenei's son, Moshe Khamenei, who is the supreme leader.

We've witnessed a shift from divine power to what you could call hard power.The guys running the railroad into Iran are all former or current Basiji or Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps security or intelligence types.They have persuaded themselves, and frankly, I think they're correct, that if the war ended today, it would be an Iranian victory and an American defeat.They are prepared to suffer a degree of pain.Their pain threshold, I think, is much higher than the Trump administration's.And they, again, believe they can't match the U .

S.missile -for -missile, or Israel, for that matter, missile -for -missile.But what they've done is escalate horizontally.They've defined weak points, Gulf states and the Straits.That's given them advantage.

I want to ask you about the Gulf states and the regional players here.We know that there are reports that Iran has urged the Gulf states to convince President Trump to halt strikes or Tehran will retaliate on energy infrastructure.Just how much influence do you think the Gulf states have on the United States?

Well, Gulf states, plural, not much.The Saudis and the Emiratisa lot.Not just because they are the two most powerful and richest of those countries.But in large part, and again, I'll remind everyone that I've worked and voted for Republicans and Democrats.The Trump administration and the family, the son -in -law, Steve Whitkoff, have made hundreds of millions of dollars.

And so has the president.in investing in ventures.The Affinity Partners, which is Jared Kushner's $2 billion hedge fund, was bankrolled by Mohammed bin Salman, the next king of Saudi Arabia.The Emirates as well.So I think there's a huge, huge audience in Washington in this administration for Gulf state treaties.But there's also a pragmatic reality.

If, in fact, the president made good on his threat to strike energy infrastructure, the Iranians would respond in kind.And I don't think we've seen yet the kind of damage they could do to Gulf oil facilities.And that would, in fact, drive oil prices well north of anything that we've seen.It's remarkable to me, frankly, that the price of oil has remained largely within the band of the 80s.Brent or WTI.And that's in part because the Chinese have restricted their imports.

It's in part because the Saudis are exporting through their east -west pipeline three to four million barrels a day.But we're still missing 10 million barrels.My understanding is five million barrels of the 15 that originally flowed through the Straits on February 28th.Five million barrels are getting through, but that's 10 million barrels that are denied.And that, over time, Contributes to inflationary pressures, not just oil comes through the through the straights.You've got fertilizer.

You've got liquid natural gas, natural gas.So again, it's really quite remarkable that you have a crisis in which two countries, now that the Israelis have stood down, Iran and the United States, that has essentially impacted the world global oil supply and the international economy.I don't think there's a crisis I could think of in the last 50 years.where only two countries participated.And you have to wonder where are the Chinese, where are the Russians, where are the Europeans in all of this?They're nowhere to be seen.

You speak of two countries, you know, in this situation.But I did want to conclude on your assessment of the overall regional stability, given what Tehran is asking of the Gulf states, given we've seen the Houthi rebels attack in Yemen, etc.

Yeah, I mean, you know, the Houthis have an internal dimension to their priorities.They've been at war now with the internationally recognized government of Yemen, backed by the Saudis, and the U .N.and others.And they want to demonstrate that they essentially can not only block the Bab al -Mandab, which is the second - Yeah.But they can also flex their muscles at home, so I'm not surprised.

And it does suggest that Yemeni politics are far from anything but royal now.