USA OWES CANADA $10B: We Pivot To Europe as Trump's Tariff Plan BACKFIRES In His Face

So the United States thought slapping 50 % tariffs on Canadian aluminum would force us to our knees, right?Make us beg for access to the US market like everyone else.

Yeah, about that Dave.It turns out that what actually happened is the exact opposite.Canadian aluminum producers took one look at that and said, fine, we'll sell to Europe instead.And that's exactly what they did.European buyers are paying premium prices for Canadian metal because it's cleaner, it's hydropowered, and it's not American.To top it off, Canadian companies are now set to collect $10 billion in refunds from the U .

S.government because their own Supreme Court said the tariffs were illegal.

And oh, by the way, Canada just posted its fourth straight trade surplus with record exports.So that tariff trap that the White House set for us, well, we're walking right through it.And they're the ones that are stuck in it.

So here's where we are.Dominique LeBlanc is in Washington right now and you can smell the desperation in the room.The U .S.Supreme Court already ruled that Trump's I .E .

E .P .A tariffs, the ones he slapped Canada on as a national emergency power grab, were completely unlawful.They were using a law that was basically meant for freezing Iranian assets to tax Canadian goods.

And now you know what?The bill is due.More than $160 billion in tariffs were collected under that program.Roughly $10 billion of that is tied to Canadian exports.That's money that the U .S.

government illegally took from Canadian businesses.And U .S.Customs has opened what they're now calling the Cape Portal, basically an online refund counter, to start giving it back.

60 to 90 days per claim.Well, or so they say.But here's what's really funny.Washington is sitting across the table from LeBlanc trying to negotiate new quotas.on steel and aluminum, and they're doing it while legally obligated to refund billions that they never should have taken in the first place.Imagine negotiating a used car sale while the other guy has your wallet in his hand and the court order says he has to give it back.

Yep, it's ridiculous, right?And the timing?It couldn't be worse for the Trump administration either.His own country is even turning on him.About time if you ask me. 25 US states have sued over the new tariffs.They're calling them a pretext to replace the old tariffs with new ones.

So Washington is fighting on three fronts at the same time.paying back Canada, getting sued by its own states, and trying to pretend that this was all part of the plan.

The plan was supposedly to bring back manufacturing to the USA.and make the U .S.self -reliant.Instead, American aluminum buyers are now paying roughly $6 ,200 a ton.That's almost double the global benchmark of $3670.

And they're watching Canadian metals sail past them right into European ports because the Europeans are paying fair prices and are actually following trade law.Sure, it sounds like Trump's plan is working perfectly, right?Yeah, perfectly putting the U .S.into bankruptcy like all of his companies.

And this is the part that's a perfect example of Canada's pivot.Canadian aluminum exports to the European Union jumped 276 % last year.More than 590 ,000 tons of Canadian aluminum went to Europe instead of the United States.

Meanwhile, Canada's share of U .S.aluminum imports dropped from 75 % in the first quarter of 2024 to just 54 % in the first quarter of this year.That's a 21 point drop.in two years.The United States has lost a quarter of its Canadian aluminum supply because they tariffed it into oblivion.

And listen, Europe wants this metal.They need clean, reliable, hydropowered aluminum for their green transition, for manufacturing, and for infrastructure.So Canadian producers are going where the demand is and the U .S.is not.They aren't begging to sell to the U .

S.anymore.They have options, which in turn means they have leverage.

And here's a killer number, Dave.European buyers are paying roughly $4 ,300 a ton for Canadian aluminum.That is above the global benchmark of $3 ,670.Meanwhile, American industrial buyers are paying $6 ,200 because the tariff premium has been built into their domestic price.So the country that placed the tariff is paying the most and the country that was supposed to be punished is actually fetching higher prices in a different market.

Yeah.Think about that.If you wrote a textbook example of a tariff backfiring, you couldn't design a cleaner case study than this.The punishment was supposed to hurt Canada, but Canada found a better customer and the punisher, they're the ones left paying the premium.

And then there's the trade data.Canada just posted its fourth consecutive monthly trade surplus in June.Exports hit a record $77 .5 billion.Imports also hit a record of $73 .6 billion.The trade surplus widened to $3 .9 billion.That's a lot of billions, Dave.

This is a country that supposedly can't survive without the United States, according to Trump.

The real story in those numbers is non -US trade.Canada's trade deficit with the rest of the world narrowed from $7 .4 billion in May to $6 .1 billion in June, which means Canada is selling more to the rest of the world and relying less on the US market.Total Q2 exports jumped 13 .1%, the strongest quarterly growth since 2020.Vehicle exports are up.Copper exports hit records.

Yeah, and some of this is the weaker Canadian dollar helping exporters.Yes, we're still doing enormous business with the USA, and that's not going to go away, but directionally, this is exactly what Canada needed to show.When you sit down to negotiate with someone who keeps telling you you're weak, You bring the numbers like this and that proves otherwise.

And the numbers say Canada shipped more, earned more, diversified more, and built leverage while the U .S.was just busy suing itself and overpaying for its own aluminum.

LeBlanc's message in Washington is simple.Lower the metal tariffs, give us predictable trade rules, and we can both move forward.But the context around that ask has completely shifted.He's not negotiating from a position of desperation anymore.He's negotiating with a $10 billion refund check, a thriving European aluminum market, and back -to -back trade surpluses in his pocket.

The cost of governing trade through improvisation is now laid out in dollars per ton and billions in refunds.U .S.consumers and manufacturers are paying for this, not Canadians.I don't get why the U .S.

government can't get that through their head.They were the ones who waged a trade war designed to punish Canada.And Canada, we just simply found other customers, is getting our money back from the courts, and we're keeping exporting.

All of the experts said this a year and a half ago.It's only going to hurt the U .S.consumer and U .S.businesses.

And they are proving right.And as usual, Trump is wrong.

Now, one court ruling doesn't stop the next terror threat.We're not even saying that.The quoted deal on steel and aluminum could still be a trap if the details are really bad.But the point here is that the direction is undeniable.Canada is building leverage through law, through markets, and through alternatives that didn't even exist two years ago.

Trump wanted to show Canada who's the boss and instead ...Canada showed the world that it doesn't need the USA ... exclusively to prosper so here's our question for you ... everybody do you think LeBlanc should take the quota ... deal or hold out for something better let us know ... because this is really important going into these ...

Kuzma negotiations does LeBlanc have a stronger ... position now or do you think it will get stronger as time goes on.

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