Who is donating to One Nation? – Back to Back Barries podcast

I'm Barry Cassidy.And I'm Tony Barry.Welcome to Back to Back Barry's, a podcast from Guardian Australia.And another week with One Nation dominating the political story, either by their own actions or by the way other parties are reacting to them.An extraordinary example, one from within the coalition, to go beyond preference deals and adopt a seat by seat allocation deal.You take this seat, we'll take this seat.

Sort of a no -compete clause, I suppose, in that.Look, it was intriguing, but it didn't go anywhere in the end, but we'll get back to it.The most intriguing now has to be the dueling donation drives.Now, Labor started this, of course, when they looked for individual donations of $27 to help fund advertising campaigns.One Nation responded with a drive for $29 from individuals and received millions.Tony, what does that tell us about not only the support that seems to be there for One Nation and all of the polls, but the level of commitment?

Well, it's completely spooking everyone in politics.We've talked about the One Nation monster now turning on Labor, but obviously the coalition are the first and early casualties of that.Tony Passon's comments I read in the Australian, you know, any lead, paragraph lead that starts off with, you know, Angus Taylor's Numbers man and confidante Tony Passon is the sort of story I tend to switch off, but I couldn't help but read the whole thing.My rule of thumb is, you know, if Tony Passon is the smartest man in the party room, then you're in the wrong room.And I think that sort of demonstrated that perfectly.It was a terms of surrender, not a political strategy.

They brought out their mop and bucket pretty quickly and tried to clean it all up.But it shows not just the naked self -interest of the guy trying to save his own seat, because that is one of the first seats that will fall to One Nation on our polling modelling.But it also shows that amongst the broader coalition, they're completely spooked.The One Nation grassroots support is not to be underestimated.We see thatanecdotally, but we also see it in some of our focus groups.

And we hear it through the traps, through the Liberal Party network and Labor Party network.They're getting enormous crowds, fairly young supporters, a very broad cross -section of the community.People have a very a narrow view of what the One Nation voter looks like and acts like and what motivates them.But it's much broader than people give it credit for.And there are a lot of people out there who are supporting the party who will throw significant money.They'll be volunteers.

They will have more people on booze than the Liberal Party, I guarantee it.And I suspect probably more than the Labor Party.

It kind of mirrors what the Teals have been able to do because despite the misrepresentation that the Teals get millions of dollars from a billionaire.The billionaire, Holmes Accord, actually, he organises on their behalf, takes loads and loads of small donations and then passes them on to candidates who reflect his climate change policies.He doesn't give anything to them.The difference here is, of course, that One Nation now have demonstrated they can draw these small amounts of money from a whole lot of people, but they also get Gina Rinehart's money on top of that and her support.

They're going to be seriously well resourced.Of course, they got public funding from South Australia and they didn't spend very much on that campaign.And they're also going to get a lot of public funding from the federal campaign that they can sort of pretty much sort of put into their budget.and still be comfortably, you know, have some surplus left over.

I think in this case, there's talk of them using, now that they're cashed up for billboards and radio and television advertising.I think that makes sense.They seem to get that.They know how to get an impact to bang for your buck.

Yeah.One of my many complaints about the Coalition and campaigns past is using a lot of direct mail.That's from 25 years ago, it's lost its zip.It's around $100 ,000 now.People don't open them anymore when they hit their little boxes.Yeah, not even I do.

But it's around $100 ,000 to do an electorate these days.One Nation are big on digital media.We've talked about this in previous weeks.They're kind of getting into different algorithms.Their cartoon animation, which is produced here in Australia, it is objectively brilliant.It reinforces all people's prejudice about the unipartist system.

And I think they've worked out that they get more bang for their buck by narrow casting their message into different media.audiences, and they've identified their audiences very well.You can see that the Gen X is a clear target, and they're starting to expand their map.Yeah.

Now, just back to the Tony Passon idea, because this is something that, of course, the Liberals do, but with a coalition partner, with the Nationals.They've done this traditionally, that if you're a sitting member, you're not challenged by somebody from the other party, unless a vacancy occur.So what they're actually offering, and that's why I think it rebounded so quickly and Angus Taylor was so fast to tidy it up, is that this was treating them as a coalition partner, even before they've demonstrated that they can actually win seats.Seating seats, seating seats for an emerging party.And I think the other thing about it was when you have a good look at the seat of Barker held by one Tony Passon.It's clearly threatened by One Nation.

So I think when he says, look, let's have a look at the seats and see who holds the best chance of holding that seat and who holds the best chance of holding this one.I think he'd probably have Barker in mind as one of the Liberals who would have the best chance to hold.

And Barker is in South Australia and I'm reliably told that the South Australian Liberal Party reached out.to One Nation about preferences and arrangements, as you do with every party, that's just standard operating procedure.And One Nation wouldn't even return the calls.So I don't know what makes Passon thinks that they're in the mood to negotiate or to...But more importantly, I would think, based on the research that we've done to date, there is a cost to One Nation in doing a preference deal with the coalition, because they'll look like just another political party.And their brand at the moment is they want to smash the union party system.

and so I think they might lose votes.by entering into that sort of arrangement where people just go, oh, they're just politics.

So what do the Liberals do then?Because there's still a live issue there.There's some people in the party are clearly uncomfortable about the prospect, but not all of them.Tony Abbott, it's really his call now.He's president of the party and it is an administrative decision.It's not a decision by the parliamentary party or Angus Taylor.

And he's already said he'll do it.

Well, Tony is federal president, but also co -opposition leader, which is a new model we're trialling.somewhat unsuccessfully at the moment.And there's obviously repercussions for Angus, because Abbott sort of keeps on saying he's not going to do any more media, and then he does more media.It's like that character in the final scenes of Cape Fear.Every time you think he's gone, he sort of comes back again.So he is making it pretty clear that he's open to discussing things with One Nation, which again, I just sort of think sends a message to voters.

Why would you have a Xerox of the Xerox when you're going to have the real deal?

Yeah.Will in California has been in touch again, and he doesn't share my view that increased media scrutiny will dash One Nation's hopes.I like his quote here, public opinion right now is very much decoupled from traditional approaches to politics.It's a good point.

Yep.Will's always got some interesting insights.And I think he's right insofar as there's a lot of counter -insurance.about the One Nation voter.We're still learning a lot.We discussed the other week about Gina Rinehart's kind donation of a plane.

Normal politics, you'd go, that's a problem.But the voters, as I explained, sort of say, oh, that's good.An outsider is getting something that the insider normally gets, evening the playing field.So there's a lot of counter -insuredness.You would think that some of these issues will play out very poorly for Pauline Hanson.But I'm not guaranteed of that.

Yeah, well, we went on to say that he also, importantly, he pointed to your observations, while the One Nation is like a sort of a global, and there's a global network around like -minded parties in other parts of the world, and they're building a sophisticated media machine, and he thinks there is a reckoning coming to Australia.Look, a lot of what One Nation does is hardly sophisticated, certainly in terms of governance, managing their own affairs.But they're starting to look like they do have a reasonably sophisticated media strategy.

Far more so than the coalition, I would argue.I think they're putting a lot of money into digital media.The coalition's still very much stuck in direct mail, as we mentioned before.And I can see, you know, if you look at some polling charts that were produced over the weekend from various sort of people on social media, the One Nation vote went from mid -teens you know, making a difference to doubling to where it is at right at the moment, 30 -31.But a lot of that sort of escalation in their vote occurred around, there was two infliction points.One of them was Pauline Hanson visiting Mar -a -Lago with Gina Reinhart, I think, introduced to Trump and Trump's circle.

And at that point, there started being an escalation of the vote.And then, of course, Bondi was the other point.Well, I would sayOne Nation are getting a lot of external help.external campaign consultants, which is entirely legitimate, from America.And that will build.

Yep.And I think it's incredibly effective.And that helps explain to me some of the extraordinary rise.Now, there are many mood sentiment things which is fermenting that growth, like Farage and Trump.And we've talked about it on this podcast all the time, 63 % wrong direction, 56 % think the next generation will have a worse life than their parents.All those things is fermenting the One Nation, but I don't back down from that.

When you talk about, though, this international help, and if it was to become clear at some stage, I'm only speaking hypothetically because I don't know, but that they were getting direct help from Trump organisers, that surely would not help them because Trump is toxic in this country.

Yes, amongst One Nation voters, when you link Pauline Hanson to Donald Trump, who they have mostly negative associations of, that does suppress the vote for about a third.A third of One Nation voters - That's a lot.... will reassess.Yeah, yeah.It's about 10%.10 points are there, 30 points.

That brings it back to 20 points.There is some effective messaging there.But obviously, it's no easy thing to prove who campaign consultants are.

Yeah.We'll see what the future holds there.But when we talk about a sophisticated media strategy, they are sloppy financially.Sarah Martin, exclusively in The Guardian this week, wrote about the party over six years in Queensland.It's repeatedly failed to meet its legal obligations for running an incorporated association.They repeatedly file annual and financial reports late or they don't file them at all.

and they've never filed annual returns with the regulator since 2022.Now this is not unimportant because it does go to government.It does go to their ability to govern if they ever got the opportunity.You can't be this sloppy.You just cannot be.You've got to be able to get on top of things.

And it's the same with their MPs and keeping them happy.They haven't been able to keep them happy in the past.And they've got to turn that around as well.

Managing parties and candidates is going to be a different question altogether.But I think in terms of the disclosure stuff, though, I'm unconvinced, as I said, a lot of counter -intuitiveness.I know voters just go back, well, CFMEU, 15 billion, although I find a similar egregious sort of thing with the coalition.And so I don't think that works.And finding the right line and length on how to persuade a One Nation voter back home, whether it be back to the Labor Party or Liberal Party, neither side has worked out yet.

I think looking at this week, though, it's clear, and it has been clear even before this, that it's a real quandary now for the major parties and how to deal with Pauline Hanson.And I don't think they've got a clue to this point.I don't think they're really hitting the straps at all.I think there are those within the Labor Party who think, well, We're not panicking.I don't think they are.And they don't, because they know that, at least they feel at this stage, that they can't win enough seats to deny Labour government.

That's their feeling.But they have the potential to almost wipe out the Coalition and the Nat.So their question is, who has the greater responsibility to take them on?And what I didn't like the feel of this week was the way that the Prime Minister, and other than the Labour Party, went after One Nation.I don't think it felt good for them, mainly because they started fighting in the gutter and it was starting to become a bit personal.Whereas I think they just simply have to focus on the policy anomalies and go harder on that.

Yep.Voters are very evidence -based, outcomes -based.

So the big hope for Labor is their budget has not gone down well so far.but effectively final judgment will be on election night.There's no finish line in two weeks' time where an assessment will be made and that'll be final.But what Labor will be hoping is that those younger voters that are unconvinced by the budget so far will start to feel that the housing market is becoming more affordable for them, whether it be renting or purchasing.There's some anecdotal evidence that the market is, people are getting rid of assets, housing assets, some more supply.So those young people with some significant savings, obviously those without savings will still be left frustrated by the system.

If, in two years time at the election, those younger people are like, well, these reforms are working and I've finally been able to get a house, then I think that'll change things quite dramatically.I did read a report in News Corp the other day which said, vox pops of young people who said, real estate agents in Sydney are finally returning my calls.We've been looking for six months.They never return because they don't have to.Now, suddenly, they're sort of calling me up randomly and sort of saying, are you still interested in buying?You know, that could be because of interest rates, it could be because of the changes coming in, in terms of the budget, but that'll be, Labor will be focusing on that and hoping that voters feel that the system is now working for them a bit better.

And Labor can't lose fact of who the traditional opponent has been, right?And that is the Coalition.I'm sure there are those within the Coalition who would enjoy the fact that Labor going to spend more time now on One Nation and less time on them.And I think that's a mistake.But when I talk about going on policies, it's such fertile ground for labour.And one issue that got a bit of attention this week was Pauline Hanson's pledge at Mar -a -Lago when she said, committed Australia to 5 % of GDP on defence spending.

That's$400 billion over four years, $100 billion a year.You can't raise that sort of money without raising taxes, significantly raising taxes.And what is she talking about?Is she talking about what sort of defence equipment is she going to buy for that enormous amount of money?Does it include conscription?

So you've got that going but also I really do think on this pretence, in my view, that the One Nation has, that they look after the working Australians.That's the really vulnerable part, because Labor can say ahead of that that we're the ones giving the tax cuts.We support wage rises.You never do.We give relief around petrol prices.We give relief around energy.

I just want to give you a quote.This is Pauline Hanson from last year.She was on Sky from Queensland, and this is what she said.Lower class Australians.That's how she started lower class.She doesn't call them low income earners.

She called them lower class Australians.One's not on higher wages, which is the way she described it.You know, they get tax cuts.They get health.They get prescriptions.They get rental assistance.

Plus, plus, plus, she said.That's her view of.And of course, she's talking about wage earners because she said they get tax cuts and she describes them as lower class Australians, you know, with with straight up.They shouldn't be getting this kind of assistance around tax cuts and higher wages.I don't see how that is sustainable over time when people become aware of her rhetoric around this.

But I don't think she's pitching to that audience in terms of votes.

To lower class Australians.

To lower income earners.She's pitching middle Australia.

And she wants to build resentment in middle class Australia about some of the benefits.But she's talking about low income earners.They're way below the middle class.they're not bludgers, and yet she wants to build some resentment between those two, as she would call it, classes of people.

But Labor's effectively done the opposite in terms of they've pitched generationally to Gen Z and millennials with the budget, hoping to solidify that base, which will make up around 48 % of the total electoral roll, if not the next election, then definitely the election after.But not exclusively.So you can make the same claim about them.But not exclusively.

They don't so categorically, she just did there, dismiss a whole bunch of people, just dismiss them.Labor doesn't do that to any group in society, and neither does the Liberals or the Nationals.

No, but I'm just not convinced that's going to damage her politically.

A bit of blowback.Last week, for me, around when I pointed out the historic fact and the verifiable point, I think, it's a fact often used when you're analyzing political analysis.And that is that there are sections, areas of Australia that are more wealthy than others and metropolitan seats.People are wealthier and better educated, educated at a higher level than than people in the country, though that gap is closing, thankfully, because they do get more access now to universities.But I made a pretty obvious point.And then I was interpreted as saying, well, I think country people are stupid.

Well, I wouldn't say that because I'm from the country, and I was not tertiary educated.And yet, I don't think people educated at tertiary level in the city are any smarter than me, and I've had the experience of life, which is good.But that's a kind of interpretation.But then you get this email from Shane, who went to an elite private school in Toorak, and grew up in Hawthorne, and now lives in Fitzroy North.That's quite the journey.round the corner from me.

Right, well then you'll be able to help me out on this, because Shane says it's wrong to say, as I did, that One Nation can't win city seats.Anecdotally put,are openly talking about it and most are now saying that Pauline will get my vote, even at the local footy club.Well, I just think no seat, state or federal, that includes Fitzroy North in its boundaries will ever fall to One Nation.Do you back me up on that?

Sort of.I think I bumped into Shane at Nikko's, which I'm not sure you'd understand.That's in the North, I think.The Liberal Party primary vote in the North Fitzroy booth was eight and a half percent, I think, at the last election.So it's not what you'd call fertile ground.But Shane is right insofar as One Nation are expanding their map.

It's not just from the regions, and I'm from Mackay.They are starting to get into those urban electorates.They're growing their primary vote.They're actually leading amongst millennials on a primary vote basis, on our last poll for the Fin Review.In what seat?Nationally.

Nationally, but not in the cities exclusively.

Look, it's difficult to see the seats around Fitzroy falling.His broader point that One Nation is starting to eat into Labor territory and the One Nation monster is now turning its sights on Labor is actually not incorrect.On our MRP that we published, which was all 150 seats, it showed that Labor is still holding all those urban electorates, which is the vast majority of Australia's urban electorates.

I think we are jumping so far ahead of ourselves to suggest that One Nation can win those urban seats.I do not think they can.

On those outer urban seats - Outer urban, different.There's some support there.I'm not sure it's going to manifest itself in seat transfer at the election.They're still two years away.They're not overly performing very well.Some of those seats, like Macquarie, Dobell on the central coast, Labor seats, they're in danger.

The federal seat of Benningtonthe federal seat of Leichhardt and Cairns.But nothing really in metropolitan, I would say, is going to fall.

And can you say, based on what you see, that Labor is genuinely in danger of losing government, even beyond minority government?

No, not at this stage.Mostly held by the fact that the coalition might be...

There's not even a narrow path there to... to a loss?

Oh, absolutely.Absolutely.

What is it?What is that narrow path?

Well, I think if they start eating into some of those outer suburban seats where, you know, they've got a...They got a bit of a foothold in there, not enough that would sort of terrify Paul Erickson, but he'd be alert but alarmed.And I've read briefings that says that Labor are working on messages.Some of those union messages, again, that you mentioned before about workers' rights and entitlements will help those red One Nation voters come back to the Labor column.We've talked before about Greens voters being tactical, saying, I better vote Labor to stop the One Nation surge in this seat.So it's difficult to see at this point.

Paul Keating once said of Bromwen Bishop, right, when Bromwen Bishop was emerging as the potential leader of the Liberal Party and she was going to be the saviour and bring them back to government, he said that Bromwen Bishop reminded him of a sky rocket.You light it up, it shoots into the air and you get this burst of sparkle and light and then a dead stick falls to earth.That's what happened.She fell to earth.I'm not suggesting that's what will happen to One Nation, but I just suspect there will be an element of that because two years is a long time.

Yes.And whether they can withstand the search remains to be seen.But their voters at the moment, she's their wrecking ball.And they just want to take a flamethrower to the political system that has failed them, that has entrenched despondency, and they see no future for them or their children.

I'll give you another example where I think she got into real strife.this week, and that was the billboard that went around was driven around Melbourne.This was not hidden on social media.It was a truck that drove around a billboard, a mobile billboard with Ditch the Witch and Jacinta Allen dressed as a witch.It was partly funded and sponsored by a Melbourne brothel keeper.And now, obviously, Jacinta Allen, attack that, as she should.

Pauline Hanson's response when Jacinda Allen called it out was to say, suck it up, sweetheart.Now, I think that's a terrible message for anybody to send out to the community, that that kind of language, somehow you've got to suck it up.Suggesting that it's not that it's acceptable, but you just don't condemn it.You just live with it.That's the way the political dialogue operates.No when you're good enough.

Imagine that the young girls in this town who hear that kind of expression from Pauline Hanson, that sort of vile misogyny or something, you just simply Suck it up, because that's life.That's life, sweetheart.Well, that's nowhere near good enough.

Totally inappropriate language.And by the way, there's a hundred different complaints you can have about the Allen -Labor government in Victoria.Why they would go to that particular slogan is beyond me.However, again, we come to the counter -intuitiveness of the One Nation supporter at the moment.I mean, politicians talking about themselves has never been a vote winner.

But I'm not really looking at this in terms of votes.I couldn't care less how people vote.This is just outrageous.It picks up on Donald Trump, right?He's introduced this kind of vile behavior in the United States now where it's almost normal.Imagine that the generation of kids who have come up over the last 10 years that Donald Trump has been on the scene, and they're starting to think this is normal.

And here is Pauline Hanson in this country saying that this kind of language is normal.is okay.Just suck it up, sweetheart.It's a disgrace, an absolute disgrace.

But we've been on this slope for quite some time.

Well, we've got to get off it.

Yeah, the Victorian Labor Branch, of course, did that social media advertising on Dutchsaying he's a monster.So this is nothing new.And you know, Pauline Hanson...

It's not in the same category.

Oh, I don't think it's what you'd call mature or sophisticated debate.It's misogyny straight out.Yep.But I mean, you know, Pauline Hanson's made the same claim that, you know, she was called the same thing in 1996.So I think Politicians talking about politicians, never ideal, and I just think it just solidifies a perception of the electorate that they're not looking after me, they're sort of... talking about themselves all the time.

Solidifies a view in the electorate that they're all capable of this sort of thing.And they're not they're not all capable of that kind of performance.Well, I mentioned Jacinda Ardern, the Victorian politics.So let's go there after the break.All right.Now, the Victorian election.

We have an election in Victoria in in November.A Freshwater Strategy poll really got attention this week because it showed that Labor is now third on the primary vote.The Coalition on 27, One Nation 25 in Victoria, which is known as the most progressive state, and Labor on 23.And there was one in April that showed all three of them around the 24, 25 % mark.So I think you have to accept that at least at this stage, if you had an election now, Labor's going to be struggling on those numbers.

Yeah, they're fighting political gravity.12 -year -old government asking for 16.Brax Brumby was 11 years.It was objectively a pretty good government.They couldn't get more than 11.And to Shane's point before, my neighbourhood friend, I think he's right insofar as One Nation are going to really eat into Victorian Labor urban seats in the outer suburbs in particular.

Especially one of the most dangerous things you can have when you do seat by seat polling is where you ask win expectations.Do you think Labor or Liberal who will win this seat?And the most dangerous thing is where win expectations for the incumbent is incredibly high.but there's a mood for change, a strong mood for change, the route might go in the wrong direction.Because then you can do a protest message, make this a marginal seat.Only marginal seats get more funding for health or roads or education and so forth.

And it's terrifying in focus groups for the incumbent where they feel they can express their frustration.through the ballot box, but I'll still have my Labor candidate.I don't want Labor to lose this seat, but I want to send them a strong message because that protest can sometimes turn into a vote transferred to One Nation.So because of the age of the government, perceived failures of the government, strong mood for change at around 74 % wrong direction, some of those outer urban seats that Labor holds, they're going to be putting a lot of resources into those seats.So it's going to be kind of reverse of what happened to the coalition last time with fighting Teal seats federally, fighting on two different fronts.

And the difference between this and a federal election is that a lot more seats in the outer suburbs than a state election, of course.And so that's why One Nation is a greater threat.But there was one aspect in that poll, the Freshwater poll, 62 % said that Jacinta Allen should be replaced.I'm not sure whether that would be the sentiment because normally, look, It makes sense at times to change leaders when you're in opposition, and it doesn't have quite the impact.To change a leader when you're in government, you're sacking effectively a prime minister or a premier, and that's a bigger deal, and it doesn't happen very often, and it doesn't happen very often in Victoria either.But wouldn't it just reinforce the whole feeling that Labor has become a bit of a rebel?

It's a Hail Mary.But sometimes these things work.Challengers always believe they can win.They'd all be looking at the Scott Morrison perceived miracle election win in 2019 and sort of think, I can do that too.But I think more broadly in Victoria, we haveBen Carroll's deputy premier.

He's the presumptive premier if there's a change of leadership.He's on around 5 % margin.I think he'd be looking at this and thinking, if I'm premier, I might lose the election, but save some furniture, especially my own seat.It's unlikely that they'll vote against a sitting premier.Not unprecedented, but it's unlikely.I'll then be opposition leader next term.

And I'm trusting a coalition with Liberals, Nationals, and One Nation will fall over or implode in four years, and then I'll be back as Premier.

Ben Carroll doesn't have a high profile.When Dan Andrews was around, there were three or four people who had a higher profile than he has with Jacinda Ardern.For the benefit of those living outside of Victoria, I'll give you a bit of a sense of who Ben Carroll is. I think Chip LeGrand.landed in the age when he said he's more Ritchie Cunningham than the Fonz.And I think that's so true.I don't see him as the saviour, but then your theory is, well, neither does he.

You would think that perhaps he's looking at being effectively the opposition leader, but for four years, that's a long time.

If I was Machiavellian, that's how I'd be approaching it.

The other attitude around there, or the other quandary for them too, is when is it too late?When is it too late?Five months away from the election.

I think that's starting to call it fine now.It was in opposition, so it's a different metric and it's a different era.But Brax replaced Brumby six months out from the election and won.And that's when everybody thought Kenneth was going to cruise it in.

Yeah, but that wasn't a case of a leadership challenge.No, but I mean - You can retire as Dan Andrews did, and that's been the only change in the Labor Party for a very long time, was when Dan Andrews retired and Jacinta Allen took over.All of the leadership changes, I think about five of them beyond.beyond Andrews to Allen, have all been on the coalition side of politics in the last six years.

Yeah, and intuitively, you know, Brumby didn't have the support of the party room anymore, but he was smart enough to recognise that they had a chance of winning if they unified, and he stood down.So it looked seamless, you know, to the average voter.There wasn't any bloodshed.So I think it was an incredibly important part that Brumby played in that transition and made them more competitive in the subsequent election.But they had six months and defied all odds.

I just think, you know, when, okay, if Labor's numbers are, what was it, 23?If it goes lower than that, you're getting down to the low 20s, and that's when you do call on the Hail Mary.But it's never helpful.It's very late.Federally, it happened when Julie Gillard took the leadership from Kevin Rudd.Then Kevin Rudd took it from Julia Gillard, and within about four weeks of that, an election was called.

So that was very late.It didn't work, of course.Rudd lost the election.But I do think that he probably held a few more seats than Julia Gillard would have held.But still, it's kind of desperation states, isn't it, when you're starting to look at this?What do you do if your numbers keep plummeting?

You all see your own political mortality when the polls are bad.You're in a marginal seat.You know, you worry about what the future holds.It's just human, human nature.Especially if you've got ambitions to be, you know, a senior cabinet minister one day and you sort of suddenly see yourself unemployed.

Well, that's the program for this week.We're out of time.This podcast was made on the lands of the Wurundjeri people.It was produced by Daniel Simo and Burton Awin.The executive producer is Hannah Parks.I'm Barry Cassidy.

And I'm Tony Barry.And this is Back to Back Barries, a Guardian Australia podcast.