Why are the Greens Declining?

It's a little wild to think that a couple of months ago, the media were discussing the potential death of the two -party system.Labour were struggling significantly, national opinion polls were putting them behind Reform and the Conservatives, and the smaller parties, such as the Greens, were rising significantly.However, since Kistama's resignation, things have started to change.Burnham polls particularly well, and initial polling shows that with him as leader, Labour would actually rise so much in the polls that they would overtake Reform.Similarly, we've also seen a decline in the polls for the Greens.So in this video, we're going to take a look into this decline, first by actually outlining it, and then taking a look at what exactly seems to have caused it.

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Now, let's start by taking a look at the decline in the Greens polling.In mid -April, most of the main pollsters were putting the Greens' polling in the mid -to -high teens.YouGov had the Greens' polling at 17%, Opinium at 15%, and FindoutNow reported that the Greens were polling as high as 20%.This was a serious bump in their polling, especially compared to the polling prior to Polanski taking over as leader.The Greens' success, though, wasn't simply limited to national polling.In late February, Hannah Spencer, the Greens' candidate for the Gorton and Denton by -election, was elected to Parliament.

She secured 40 % of the vote, 12 points ahead of Reform and 15 points ahead of Labour.She became the Greens' 5th MP.And then, a few weeks later, the Greens gained 441 councillors, 5 councils and 2 mayors.the local elections.There were signs then that the Greens were beginning to challenge the two -party system.However, in the last few weeks, we've seen the Greens' fortunes change.

All major pollsters have observed a decline.YouGov now has them at 15%, Opinium at 12 % and FindOutNow has them at 15%.A 2, 3 and 5 point decline respectively.As we see it, there are three things that might have caused this decline.The decline in support for Zak Polanski, the softness of Green support, and the effect of Andy Burnham.So, let's take a look at these in turn.

Now, it's undeniable that Zak Polanski has been a major electoral asset for the Greens since his election as leader in August last year.He was clear from the off that he would be more combative than his predecessors, would take the fight to Labour, and would use social media more effectively, making the Greens more visible and providing a viable left -wing alternative to Labour, who were clearly moving right under Keir Starmer.The risk with this strategy is that a lot of the Greens popularity was tied to Polanski himself.Over the last few weeks though, there have been a number of stories in the press relating to Zak Polanski that seem to have hurt his polling.At the end of April, Polanski reposted a statement on X that was critical of police officers involved in the Golders Green attack, suggesting that they should not have kicked the head of the stabbing suspect in order to get him to relinquish the knife.While Polanski apologised for the repost, it drew significant criticism, and even seemed to directly contribute to a decline in Polanski's personal approval rating.

Immediately prior to the repost, 39 % had a negative view of the Green leader.Directly after, it had risen to 47%, an 8 -point increase, contributing to an overall approval rating of negative 25%.The thing is that this wasn't the only negative story about Polanski.There are also two stories related to his finances that have likely contributed to his increasingly unfavourable polling.The first relates to him underpaying his council tax when living in a houseboat in Hackney, and the second relates toa roughly £1 ,500 personal donation to the Green Party, which was inadmissible because Polanski wasn't on the electoral register.

While both are somewhat technical, they did provide ammunition for the right -wing press and allowed them to maintain momentum on their negative coverage of Polanski.The result of this is that Polanski's approval rating is still low and sitting at negative 25 % below Nigel Farage, Ed Davey, Kemi Badnok and Andy Burnham.So let's move on to the next reason that the Greens have been declining in the polls lately.The softness of their support.Polling from YouGov in early April showed that while the Greens' support had risen, the number of people saying that they would consider voting Green remained relatively flat.What they managed to do in the previous few months then is persuade those who had already considered voting Green to actually say they'd vote for them, rather than getting new people to consider voting for the party.

Virtually no one who was actually opposed to voting for the Greens had been won over.This creates a particularly difficult challenge for the Greens, because it implies that there's a ceiling on their support.For a party that is on the rise at the moment, maintaining momentum is important, and it just doesn't seem that there's much more of the electorate that they can appeal to.So moving on to our final reason that the Greens have been declining, the effect of Andy Burnham.It's hard to see anyone other than Burnham succeed Starmer at the moment.It's unlikely that another candidate will stand against him, and journalists are pretty convinced that he'll become Prime Minister on the 20th of July.

For Labour, this is great news.Burnham is incredibly popular, and it's likely that they'll see a bounce in the polls once he actually takes over.In fact, there's already polling showing this.A BMG poll from earlier this week shows that under Starmer, Labour has only 22 % support in national polls.Under a hypothetical Burnham leadership, this rises to 27%, a 5 point increase.While this is clearly great for Labour, it presents a problem for

Greens.BMG research found that those who support the Greens under Keir Starmer were the most likely of any major parties to switch to Labour under Andy Burnham.They found that 18 % of those who said that they would vote Green under Keir Starmer said that they would switch to voting for Labour under Burnham.This is a higher proportion than any other major party.In a sense, it isn't all that surprising.Burnham is popular among Green voters.

45 % of those who voted Green in 2024 said that they had a favourable view of Burnham, compared to just 29 % who said that they had an unfavourable view.And Burnham addresses one of the number one reservations that Green supporters have with the Green Party.That the party seems like a wasted vote.Under Starmer, some people may have been willing to tolerate this and vote for the Greens anyway.After Starmer's rightward shift, Labour probably wasn't a viable option to many on the left.However, with Burnham in charge, and with Labour moving back to the left, Labour seems like a viable option once again.

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