Why Burnham Becoming Prime Minister Looks Increasingly Likely

Last week, the Labour Party came the closest it's come since the 2024 general election to toppling Keir Starmer.Normally triggered by the disastrous local, Scottish and Welsh elections, last week we saw almost 100 Labour MPs, almost a quarter of the parliamentary party, call on the Prime Minister to set out his timetable for resignation.When this didn't happen, in an attempt to continue piling pressure onto Starmer, we saw some high -profile ministerial resignations, including Jess Phillips and Wes Streeting.Again though, Starmer signalled that he intended to fight on.For those in the Labour Party that wanted Starmer out, it was clear that the pressure needed to be ramped up, and someone needed to formally challenge him for the leadership.Initially, it seemed that Wes Streeting was going to launch a leadership bid.

But as the week went on, it became clear that this wasn't going to happen.Perhaps because he didn't have the numbers, or perhaps because he felt like a leadership challenge without Andy Burnham, widely viewed as one of the most likely successors to Starmer, would be seen as illegitimate.Whatever the reason, with Streeting refusing to make a move, the burden to challenge Starmer passed on to Andy Burnham, who, as Mayor of Manchester, first needed an ally in Manchester to resign from their seat, allowing him to run in the by -election, become an MP, and then formally launch the challenge.So, with Burnham ally Josh Simons officially resigning his Maycadill constituency last week, and with Burnham confirmed to be Labour's candidate in the by -election, it's worth asking, How likely is it that Burnham succeeds, challenges Starmer and becomes Prime Minister this summer?If you love staying informed and want some of the best reporting on YouTube, then subscribe and ring the bell for more.Now, it's worth starting this video by explaining exactly where we are with Burnham's potential path to number 10.

As we mentioned, Burnham ally Josh Symons resigned his seat in Makerfield, Greater Manchester last Thursday, explicitly saying that he was doing so to allow Burnham to stand for Parliament.Soon after this announcement was made, Burnham confirmed that he would be requesting thepermission of the NEC, National Executive Committee, to stand in the Makerfield by -election.By Saturday, the NEC had confirmed that they had approved Burnham's request.As of the time of writing, the date of this by -election has not officially been announced, but it's suggested that it will take place on Thursday 18th June, in just over four weeks' time.Now the by -election is not going to be easy for Andy Burnham.

It's likely that the Greens will stand a candidate in the constituency, despite a suggestion from former Green leader Caroline Lucas that this would make it easier for Reform UK to win by splitting the vote on the left.Reform is also likely to throw a lot at this election too, not only because Burnham becoming leader would make their jobs a lot harder in the general election, but also because, as we'll get onto in a moment, the constituency is very winnable for Reform.So that's where we are right now.But can Burnham actually win the by -election?To answer this, we need to understand a little more about the constituency itself.In every election since its creation in 1983, Makerfield has returned a Labour MP, often with sizeable majorities.

In the 1980s, Labour MP Ian McCartney represented the area and frequently achieved majorities in excess of 50%, making it one of the safest Labour seats in the country.However, to suggest that it's a classic Labour safe seat, or even a Labour safe seat anymore, would be disingenuous.In 2016, 65 % of the constituency voted Leave, compared to only 52 % nationally.And according to analysis of 2021 census data by Electoral Calculus, the constituency leans, on average, slightly right economically, and very right culturally.On top of this, in the most recent elections in the area, there have been signs that Labour's hold on the seat may be weakening.In the 2024 general election, reform garnered 31 .8 % of the vote, around 15 points behind Labour, who achieved 45 .2%.

And in this year's council elections in early May, reform averaged 50 .4 % in the eight make -a -field wards, more than double the 22 .7 %% that Labour received.On paper then, the by -election looks difficult for a Labour candidate to win.Polling guru Professor John Curtis stated that Labour may have less than a 5 % chance of victory in the Makerfield by -election.This aligns with analysis conducted by Survation, who found that Labour have roughly a 0 % chance of winning the by -election, with them suggesting that Labour are likely to achieve around 27 % of the vote, and Reform are likely to achieve 53%.However, in both of these cases, it assumes that Burnham isn't the candidate.

When you factor Burnham in, the chances of victory rise.According to Surveysion's analysis, with Burnham, Labour have a 67 % chance of victory, and they suggest that Labour are likely to achieve 45 % of the vote, and Reform 42.This would obviously make it a tight race, but on balance, it looks like Burnham will win it.This isn't to say though that it'll be an easy fight, or an easy route for Burnham.As we pointed out earlier, Reform is likely to throw a lot at the seat.And the Green standing could split the vote on the left.

On top of this, Burnham needs to decide exactly how he campaigns for the seat.He needs to signal to reform -leaning voters that he can represent them, including those in the constituency that voted Leave.Signal to the Labour Party that he represents a change from the status quo, while also reassuring the bond markets.All while demonstrating ideological consistency.Already we're seeing this tension play out.Last year, Burnham told delegates at the Labour Party conference that he hoped the UK would rejoin the EU within its lifetime, and that he supports the EU and the benefits it brought to this country.

At the weekend, he went back on this, saying that he would not rerun the Brexit arguments, and that I'm not proposing the UK considers rejoining the EU, disappointing many on the left who had hoped to see Burnham stand firmly on this opinion.Similarly, Burnham has already confirmed that he will stick with Rachel Reeves' fiscal rules, presumably as a way of assuaging the bond markets, despite last year complaining that the UK was too in hock to them.Now, we should be clear that we aren't saying that these incidents will hurt the campaign too much in isolation.Indeed, we still think it's likely that Burnham will win it.But they do show the tightrope that Burnham is having to walk as a result of standing in a constituency like Makefield.Nonetheless, if Burnham does manage it, then he'll be back in Parliament and eligible to challenge Starmer for the leadership, a contest he's very likely to win, given his popularity among Labour MPs and the wider membership.

If Makefield elects Burnham then, it seems likely that he'll be in Number 10 as soon as this summer.

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