Why has Trump paused new Iran attacks?

On Friday, as reports emerged of planned U .S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure this weekend, President Trump did little to contradict them, expressing skepticism about talks with Iran.

DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States of America I'm losing faith in them, because they do lie and they do misrepresent.We'll be hitting them very hard.And at some point, they're going to say, we just can't take it anymore.

But last night, the familiar climbdown, posting that while the USA was locked and loaded and ready to go at levels of military terror, strength and power not seen since World War II, we have just been asked by Iran and other Middle Eastern countries to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal have been agreed to, including the immediate, complete and total opening of the Hormuz Strait and an end to Iran's nuclear threat.Based on this request, I have agreed to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a deal.Iran denied it had made any such request, but this evening, its foreign ministry said negotiations with Oman over a mutual mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz were in the final stages.One reported suggestion that traffic into the Gulf would pass close to Iran, ships exiting would use the Omani route.Saudi Arabia's state news agency confirming reports that the de facto leader, Mohammed bin Salman, had called President Trump yesterday, emphasizing the need to prioritize dialogue and de -escalate tensions.A clear signal of just how worried America's Gulf allies are about Iran's will and capacity to respond to any U .

S.attacks on its energy infrastructure, with large -scale strikes on theirs.This is Iran's key deterrent, and, for now, it seems to be working.One U .S.general reportedly warning the Pentagon this week of a lack of sufficient naval power in place to defend Israel from Iranian strikes.

That followed reports that U .S.missile interceptor stocks have been more than halved by the war so far.

And we begin this Sunday morning with hope of a deal in the Middle East.

On Fox News today, though, the message that President Trump was setting the terms.

President Trump always giving Iran an opportunity to have an off ramp from being destroyed.If they do anything to us, if they break deals, they're being reeducated that he will respond disproportionately and make sure they stop breathing.

It could be argued that Iran's learning the opposite lesson.In April, Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iranian civilization just hours before the initial ceasefire was announced, a pattern that's repeated since.

We're going to be attacking them and attacking them very hard.If Iran doesn't live up to their agreement or if they're not behaving, I will do what I have to do.We're either going to make a deal or we're going to finish the job, OK?And it won't be tough to finish the job.To me, I think it's over.I don't want to deal with them anymore.

They're scum.You know what scum is?

Today, it's back to the dealing with them phase of the cycle, but the options look no better.A deal that transfers at least some control to Iran over shipping through the strait, or the kind of military escalation that could rock the global economy just three months out from U .S.midterm elections.

Harry Fawcett reporting.Well, earlier I spoke to the former Middle East negotiator and State Department official Aaron David Miller, who's now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.I asked him how he sees the current situation between Iran and the US.

I mean, President Trump confronts two options, neither one of which is attractive and neither one he wants to take.The first option is massive escalation.There's no indication that that could change Iranian core objectives or interests.The second is what I call political extrication.The president cuts a deal with the Iranians that concedes some degreeof Iranian control and leverage over the Straits of Hormuz.

The president does not want to adopt either of those.So, we, he, the United States, and the rest of us, the global oil economy and the international economy are all in the same boat.He has found an option that maintains some degree of military pressure.and an economic blockade, but neither of those, frankly, is going to do anything other than tread water.If you were to ask me how this ends, I could not give you, in all honesty, a compelling, let alone an authoritative answer.He's in a box, one of his own making, and that's what happens when you launch a war of choice in which you overestimate your own military power and not clear about your objectives.

And you underestimate the impressive power of this brutal authoritarian regressive regime in Tehran.And here we sit.

And here we sit, you say, Trump, the US, the rest of the world in this odd status, this geopolitical anxiety.I mean, it has to end at some point, doesn't it?

It's an interesting question.The University of Chicago, in conjunction with Uppsala University in Sweden, did a massive study in which they traced every interstate war, wars between states, since 1815.The average length of such an interstate conflict is somewhere between four to five months.If it lasts longer than that, see Vladimir Putin's aggression and invasion of Ukraine, it's a multi -year enterprise.And what that shows to me, the majority of these conflicts don't last long because, the uplifting thought of the day, people realize that war is not really a functional objective to get you what you want.It causes pain, it causes dislocation.

The problem here is, you have a, Two examples, Vladimir Putin, we're now in the fifth year of the Russia -Ukraine war.He cannot break Ukraine.Donald Trump, now beginning the sixth month of this war, cannot break Iran.And it shows, and that's why President Xi must be thinking carefully about what his intentions and capacities are with respect to Taiwan.Big power is trying to break the resolve of small ones for whom the stakes are existential.They're very complicated.

So I'd like to answer your question about where this goes or how long it's going to last, but right now I can't because we don't have what the political scientists call the herding stalemate, which occurs when both sides realise time is not on their side.Both sides realise, yes, they can escalate, but it's not going to help.And finally, both sides begin to feel pain.

Surely, there's going to be some international pressure as well, because this is going to get the oil prices going up again.Here, domestically, in the UK, that is a situation that our new Prime Minister wants to resolve very quickly as well.

Well, we're six months in, right?Let's take a look at the three main power centres.The Chinese have basically restricted their imports, they have renewables, they're burning coal.I think they, frankly, you would have thought since what, 60, 70 % of Chinese oil and hydrocarbon imports come from Iran and or Saudi Arabia, and the StraitsYou think the Chinese would pressure the Iranians?The answer is no.

Or what about Vladimir Putin?Well, every time the price of oil goes up, he begins to try to close his staggering budget deficit.For Putin, this isn't a bad place.So now you come to the three powers, I guess, that Trump cares about.The Brits, the French, and the Germans.Maybe that's right.

They're not going to have any influence on it.None.Zero.

And just lastly, Aaron, if you had 10 seconds in a lift with Donald Trump to try and resolve this situation as a diplomat, what would you say?

I'd say, look, you're going to have to surrender to the realities of geography.These Iranians have weaponized geography.And it seems to me that if you want out, you're going to have to cut the best deal you can with respect to the Straits.The insurers will pay more.The shipping companies will pay more.There'll be an export surcharge probably at the oil producers.

But there's no other way out unless you want to do a Bush 43 and deploy hundreds of thousands of Americans to a country four times the size of Iraq and twice the size of Afghanistan.Because you cannot make this regime capitulate or surrender without a level of military involvement, including the deployment of ground forces, which would essentially force you into a long term occupation.So cut the best deal you can.and convince the shippers and the oil exporters to find alternate means of oil infrastructure to bypass the Straits of Hormuz.They're doing it already.And that seems to me to be the future.

You take the Iran deal,away from them by essentially marginalising this particular international transit point.It's going to take several years, a lot of commitment and determination, but I think it can be done and it should be done.

Aaron David Miller, thank you so much for your time.Thank you.

Thanks for having me.