Why Iran Is Now Openly Laughing At Trump's Latest U-Turn

It's puzzling enough sometimes as to why the entire world doesn't just point out every time President Trump does something obviously transparently dumb that that's what just happened.Specifically, for example, his routine, where he threatens he's about to initiate a massive major strike against Iran, the biggest anyone's ever seen before, that will completely shock them into submission.And then he announces that somebody, The Pakistanis, the Qataris, the Saudis, the voices in his head, asks him not to because they're so close to reaching a deal.And the Iranians themselves are begging for a deal.And so he doesn't go ahead with that strike.It is embarrassingly transparent.

And it was even the first time it happened.I mean, at least embarrassing for all those members of his cabinet who have to pretend that it's not obvious at all and all totally legit.But with repetition, it becomes increasingly farcical, and the United States quietly becomes the laughingstock of the world.

Quietly because, of course, world leaders have nothing to gain by upsetting Trump with their open mockery.

But the Iranians, they have no such constraints, because what have they got to lose?So, this weekend, we had the latest of the ridiculous will -he -won't -he exercises.

Trump had threatened massive attacks.Again, the usual rhetoric, saying at a sycophants convention, sorry, a cabinet meeting, we will be hitting them very hard.At some point, he predicted, they're going to say, we just can't take it anymore.Iran had responded to all of this saying, fine, go ahead.We're ready for war.You strike, we strike, which Isn't how the script is supposed to go, obviously.

And then, Donald Trump posted on social media this.We have just been asked by Iran.This would include the immediate, complete and total opening of the Hormuz Strait.Why, oh why, you might wonder, would it ever occur to Trump that it would work for him to lie about such things in exactly that way?

Especially when he claims that the Iranians themselves asked him to.Which anyone observing recent history would understand to be vanishingly unlikely.

But it also kind of makes it easy for them to just contradict him in public.And that of course is what they did.And then some.Yes, they pointed out that they were not engaged in negotiations with the US at all right now, although they are having a grown -up talk with a man about the future management of the Strait of Hormuz.But that was the least of it.

Presumably Trump thought that they would not be able to take it anymore because of how hard they were all laughing.Iranian media outlets were described by CNN as reacting with glee and mockery after Trump announced his latest climbdown over the weekend.

Trump the fool has run out of steam, said Defar's news agency.The American's mountain gave birth to a mouse once again.

The semi -official agency mayor, believed to be closely aligned with the Supreme Leader, said this, Trump once again backed away from his hollow threats and presented his retreat to the world as a favour.Prominent hardline Iranian commentator Syed Mohammad Morandi simply posted a picture of chicken tacos on Twitter, a reference to the Trump Always Chickens Out acronym.Iranian news agencies linked the retreat to the growing shortages of U .S.

missiles because, again, it's patently obvious that it's a major factor, in spite of the surreal denials of the administration.For instance, Trump moaning and moaning that Biden gave weapons away, while also claiming, but nevertheless, they have all the weapons they could possibly need.

Again, utterly embarrassingly ridiculous for anyone with the capacity to feel embarrassment.

It's true that, according to reports, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke to Trump on Saturday and urged for de -escalation, raising concerns about the impacts of the alternative on his country.Something that sounds highly feasible because it fits the known facts.

So you think he could have just said that rather than claiming that the Iranians themselves were negotiating with them.But since Trump has followed this exact pattern numerous times to date, It's pretty hard to swallow the idea that he really was going to go for the biggest, the most dramatic, the most devastating strike of all time, just to be dissuaded by a phone call with the Saudis.Especially when the first time he pulled this theatrical display, he claimed it had been the Pakistanis.And then, the office of the Pakistani Prime Minister accidentally posted the template statement on social media, revealing that they'd been in coordination with the White House all along, who had drafted for him what they wanted him to say.

So yeah, standard pattern, big strong man, can never show weakness, but he's somehow weirdly pliable to a range of third parties asking him to refrain from exercising his awesome world -changing power.

But it gets even more ridiculous.The US military, having had manly man's man Pete Hegsay fire many of the most competent people, presumably because they weren't man's men,

The first answer, you might think, would have been to consult military analysts before blundering in in the first place.And maybe not to fire the people who actually knew what they were doing.But... be late for that now, so fair enough.It was a pretty bold admission, though, that having explored chucking loads of bombs at them, lying about them begging for a deal, and then trying to get them to the table in spite of having just lied about them in public in order, hopefully, that they might agree a one -sided deal in Trump's favour.Weirdly, none of that seemed to be working, and they are just plain out of ideas.Another signal, ripe for Iranian mockery.

But of course, it won't have been news to them, because it's obvious to anyone watching, that the Americans had been out of ideas pretty much from about day five of the conflict.

You know, when it first dawned on them that the Iranian regime had not quickly collapsed, as they'd been told and had assumed that they would.I do hope that one day, before I die, we will get full publication of all the responses that request to all those military analysts drew in, because I'm betting it would make for fascinating reading.Because how do you explain to someone like Trump, famously resistant to tedious things like reality, that he's dug himself into a hole and left himself with no good options.In a war.I mean, they can't even manage to persuade him, but the company he hired made a mess of everything.a reflecting pool, so good luck in doing it in an actual shooting war.

There are no things he could do that wouldn't have been much better done at the beginning, instead of what he actually did do.His posturing has screamed weakness to the degree that the Iranians are now utterly convinced that they hold the cards and are determined to punish Trump for, in their view, breaking the terms of the Memorandum of Understanding for the ceasefire.Meanwhile, some media outlets reported all of this as though it meant something, as though Trump had really been about to make a massive strike but got talked down.The oil price came down on Monday as though Trump's pretending negotiations that were imminently on the edge of a breakthrough were actually happening.Which is all very puzzling when grown -ups decide to behave according to the rules of the children.And to do so after the charade has been played through again and again and again already.

But there it is.That's the world as we know it today.Is this the way we should be talking about a war?Well, obviously not.War is a serious business with real, lethal, tragic consequences.According to Ali Vaiz of the International Crisis Group, the big game -changer was the Iranian strike on July 17th on US military sites in Jordan that killed several American soldiers.

He told the New York Times that it not only showed that Iran's arsenal of missiles remained well -stocked in spite of all the US claims, but also that Tehran's intelligence on US locations and vulnerabilities was stronger than previously believed.Underestimating your enemy in war is a...

rookie mistake, but one often made by better strategists than Pete Exeth.Vase observed that Trump has never grasped the motivations for the Iranians, how they can refuse to be bullied by the larger power.

He has not learned the lessons of eight years of trying to apply maximum pressure on them that has never once produced the results that he wanted.Because sure, Trump famously does not learn lessons, and there it is in practice.How many more times will we have to go through this same cycle over and over again, as though it's Groundhog Day, but stupid rather than the smartly observed comic genius of the original.

The problem for Trump is that the Iranians are now simply ignoring his demand for a deal.Ignoring his request for negotiations.They're talking to their neighbour.Not about opening the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow, because they say that won't happen, so long as the Americans keep up their blockade on their attacks, but about the system for its operation for the longer term.Grown -up discussions for grown -ups.They may not be based on the interests of a wider global community.

We may not welcome the results.But they are rational actors negotiating in pursuit of their own national interest, which we used to accept was the norm in terms of how geopolitics worked.If Trump can't abide anything, though, it's not being the central character of every drama, of being ignored.But if all he's got is a dwindling pile of missiles and bombs, a social media feed where he tells the most transparent lies in all caps, and a sense of growing frustration, kinda hard to see what he's gonna do about it.The Iranians have said that they expect the process will go on for longer yet.The talks, they suggest, will not be meaningful for ones with America, not until the Trump administration accepts its maximalist ambitions are off the table and is prepared to, in the American vernacular, to eat humble pie.

Now that's going to take a while.

Indeed, just a few hours ago, Trump was whining on social media about the Iranians not going along with his charade.Although he didn't put it in those words, obviously.

Iranian leadership is unbelievably duplicitous, he said.They ask for a meeting.Some would say beg.Talks begin with more scheduled in the immediate future.

And they say openly and proudly that they're not having any discussions, that nothing is being talked about and they're only dealing with Oman.And then he went on to boast about how the US has the upper hand and blah, blah, blah.

And then he went back to posting things like this.No reason why that would accentuate the whole world laughing Trump theme.So yes, it's Groundhog Day.Again, my advice is to go and watch the original movie.Because, as is often the case, the remake's a bit rubbish.