"You’re Dating the Wrong Guy”, Carney HUMILIATES Trump AGAIN

Donald Trump wants another deal with Canada, but according to one of America's top economists, Canada is currently dating the wrong bloke.Justin Wolfer's University of Michigan professor and one of the sharpest economic voices in the United States just delivered the most devastatingly honest assessment of Trump's trade strategy yet.Using a brutal marriage analogy, he explained why any agreement with this president is built on sand.And why Mark Carney's cautious, clear -eyed approach is exactly the right one.This is not soft diplomacy.This is hard truth.

Yeah, I think actually, let's actually talk about a different kind of deal.But it's the same economics, which is let's think about marriage.Now, you know, a lot of people when they get married, that's for better for worse and sickness and in health till death do us part.And what happens when you get married, you've got that guarantee that you and your partner are going to be together forever.So you really mix your lives, you intermingle them, you find every way that you can support each other and enrich each other's lives.That's one model.

And that's how we used to think about trade deals.Now, Let me tell you about a different kind of bloke.There are some people out there who get married, then get divorced, and then get married, and then see a sheila out the side of their eye, and then get divorced, and then they get married, and they get divorced.And after they've been married a few times, certainly the next person that bloke meets is sort of going to realize this is not a bloke who keeps his promises.As a result, you're going to end up with a different sort of marriage.It's going to be a more transactional marriage.

You're not going to get deeply embedded in each other's lives.And I think that's the problem.

Wolfers puts it perfectly.A real trade relationship is like a serious marriage for better or worse, deeply intertwined, built on trust.That's what NAFTA and then Kuzma were supposed to be.Trump, however, is the serial remarrier.He gets married, gets divorced.sees someone new on the side of the road, gets married again, gets divorced again.

After a few rounds of that, no one with any sense is going to fully invest in the relationship.That is exactly where Canada finds itself.The country was ready for a deep, long -term economic marriage.Instead, it is stuck with a partner who has already cheated multiple times, first with the baseless fentanyl tariffs, and now with the new 50 % tariffs that even hit Kuzma -compliant goods.Trust has been destroyed, and once trust is gone, Every deal becomes purely transactional and fragile.

That's where we are with the president right now, which is Canada was serious about a deep marriage.That's what NAFTA was and the good faith reenactment of Kuzma.The problem is that you're dating the wrong bloke right now and he's not shown that track record of reliability.

He hasn't, but the deal largely has.I mean, Kuzma still defends Canada against the worst part of these tariffs, because everything that is, mostly everything that is Kuzma compliant, is not applied.

Wolfers highlights the absurdity.Kuzma still provides some protection, until it doesn't.The new 50 % tariffs are designed to go after Canadian goods, even when they fully comply with the agreement.At the same time, Trump slapped a global 10 % tariff on almost every country, except, once again, some Kuzma carve -outs.The message is clear.The rules only apply when they benefit Trump.

When they don't, he simply changes them.This is why Mark Carney has refused to rush into a partial or one -way deal.agreement.He understands that signing something today is no guarantee it will still exist next month.

I guess, how do you square those two?When you think about, we're supposed to be intensifying talks with the U .S.right now.How should those negotiators be thinking about how to approach this particular administration?

Yeah, so it's worth remembering the whole history of this.Recall, you know, CUSMA was in pretty good shape when we entered the second Trump administration.After all, it was a deal that some bloke called Trump had negotiated.The first thing that Trump did was he put fentanyl tariffs on Canada, despite the fact Canada doesn't really have much fentanyl.um there was no carve out there for kuzma compliant goods that was just we're going to whack you over the head so that was the first you know if we want to go back to the marriage analogy that's the first time the bloke cheats and he got caught um but you're right he sort of came back and he sort of felt bad about it and he said i tell you what we're going to whack you with all these tariffs except if you're kuzma compliant and by the way they didn't do that for anyone else right they didn't do it for the aussies or the south koreans or the brits just this nice carve out so the canadians were doing something really well until last week.This new 50 % tariff, it's one that says, you know what, we're going to go at you even if it's KUSMA compliant.

So that's the thing that I think is a whole new phase in the trade war.Now, the funny thing, by the way, is the president then put a 10 % tariff on every country around the world, including Canada, except for, once again, KUSMA matters.So KUSMA matters, except when it doesn't.

Wolfers reminds us of the classic economic argument from Joan Robinson.If another country puts rocks in its own harbor, Why would you put rocks in yours?Tariffs primarily hurt the country that imposes them, but he is also honest about the political counter -argument.If every time Trump punches Canada in the mouth, Canada just stands thereand takes it.He will keep punching.

This is the tightrope Carney is walking.Pure economic logic says avoid self -harming retaliation.Political reality says weakness invites more aggression.Carney's strategy, build domestic strength, diversify, keep all options open and refuse to be rushed, is the intelligent middle path.

So the question, I guess, is if these tariffs on August 19th go ahead, how should we respond?And you had a great analogy for this, that tariffs are like, what did you call it?Rocks in the harbour.And it might mess up their stuff.But make your argument, because I think it's a valid one.

This is, by the way, is not my argument.It belongs to the great Joan Robinson, who's one of the great unheralded geniuses of economics.Obviously, she's dead many decades now.But she basically said, look, if some other country puts rocks in their harbour, And I want to be clear on the analogy.When you put rocks in your harbour, you make it harder for boats to go in and out.You make it harder for trade.

So rocks in the harbour is, if the US puts rocks in its harbour, that's what tariffs are.The US put rocks in its harbour.If the US puts rocks in its harbour, why would it make sense for Canada to put rocks in its harbour?The first people who are going to be hurt by Canada putting rocks in its harbour are the Canadians.So this is the economic argument that, yes, the president is attacking, but understanding that retaliation is going to hurt the Canadian people.And so the argument for trading is simply trading is good for Canadians on its face.

I want to recognise that's an economic argument.Now, I've got a whole lot of friends who are a lot more political than me, and they think about global strategy and things like that.And they say things like, you know, if every time I punch you in the mouth, you just stand there and take it, I'll just keep punching you in the mouth.So that's the counter argument.But I do want folks at home to really understand the argument for trade really does say it's in Canada's best interest to even just to import even if it weren'tto export.

So, you know, to Prime Minister Carney, be thoughtful.Do you really want to punch the Canadians in the mouth?

And parts of the auto sector in northern states are all taking hits.Public opinion polls show Trump has already lost the argument with the American people on tariffs.Yet he continues, that is not strength.That is stubbornness dressed up as strategy.

And I don't think we do a good enough job in this country of talking about the pain that has been caused to American companies and American workers by American tariffs.You know, the opening of this bridge is great, and it's fantastic news for Canadian trade, but the delay of it hurt American companies.The imposition of these new set of tariffs are going to hurt American companies.And yeah, some of it's hockey sticks, but some of it's cement that is crucially important to building the factories that Donald Trump says he wants to do.How important is it to let the damage of the tariffs happen and exist, and just sort of point to it and say, that's the problem here, not our response?

Yeah, I do.I live very close to that bridge and my neighbours are a big part of Canadian -US trade and it really affects my part of Michigan.We're very close to the border.The hard issue is, it is true, the President is hurting Americans.The President is also hurting Canadians.And with your audience, I want to be very clear, you are feeling the pain.

But we are also feeling the pain because, for instance, the steel and aluminium tariffs make it so that US factories are the only ones in the world that have to pay 50 % more for...and aluminum.It's actually really, really hurting not just American businesses, but also American consumers.Let me just say a couple of things.One, that the President is not winning the argument.The president is proceeding, but if you look at public opinion polls, he's lost the argument with the American people.

They don't like his tariffs.Two, where do I advise Prime Minister Carney of anything?I think actually just laying out the facts even a little more clearly to the American people about the many ways they've lost.They've lost wine sales.They've lost tourism.They've lost higher education.

They've lost a war on the cusp of losing some part of the auto sector that lies in the northern part of the United States.We got a pretty big dog in this fight, too.

Wolfer's practical advice is pure gold.Give Trump the press conference and the ceremony, let him announce something, but do not make costly upfront investments that he can undo a few weeks later when he gets bored or angry again.This is exactly the approach Carney appears to be taking.Stay at the table, intensify talks, project seriousness, but refuse to lock Canada into irreversible concessions based on the word of a man who has repeatedly shown his word means nothing.

Look, one thing we have seen that works, and don't tell anyone south of the border I told you this, but if you give the president a press conference and he gets to announce something, but you never get around to signing a deal, he sort of tends to get bored and walk off and leave you alone.That's probably a pretty good idea here.The one thing you don't want to do is do a deal where Canada's doing a lot of costly investment up front, because I reckon if you do a deal, there's a pretty good chance that the president wakes up again and undoes the whole thing within a few weeks from here.So, you know, the bloke likes pomp and ceremony, give him the pomp and ceremony, but you might just have to wait it out for the next president.

Justin Wolfers just said out loud what many Canadians have felt for months.You cannot build a serious long term relationship with a partner who keeps rewriting the rules.Mark Carney understands this.That is why he has refused to panic, refused to accept a bad deal and refused to treat Trump's threats as permanent reality.He is playing the long game while protecting Canadian workers and Canadian leverage.Trump wants submission dressed up as a deal.

Carney is offering something far more dangerous to a bully, disciplined strength.If you believe Canada should negotiate from strength rather than desperation, hit like, subscribe, and share this video.The truth needs to travel further than the tariffs.